Foreign Policy in Focus.
In a recent interview, the eminent geo-strategist Ian Bremmer suggested that a “nuclear-armed Iran” is inevitable because, in an emerging “G-Zero World”
where no single bloc of countries can dominate international affairs,
the emerging powers can frustrate the West’s efforts to thwart Tehran’s
nuclear ambitions. There are basically two underlying assumptions to his
argument: first, that the rising powers have the will and the capacity
to ameliorate Iran’s growing isolation; and second, that Iran is willing
to push its nuclear frontiers at any cost.
However, recent years given lie to these assumptions. Not only are
many emerging powers beginning to distance themselves from Iran, but
also Tehran itself — facing the prospect of an economic meltdown — is
beginning to reexamine its nuclear calculus.
Clearly, emerging powers are explicitly prioritizing their ties with
the West at the expense of Tehran, while the moderates and pragmatists
within the Iranian leadership are pushing for a diplomatic compromise to
diffuse rising tensions.
