Project Syndicate.
PARIS – For some time now, a certain strategic vision has been gaining
traction: the United States is becoming energy-independent, paving the
way for its political retreat from the Middle East and justifying its
strategic “pivot” toward Asia. This view seems intuitively correct, but
is it?
Energy-hungry America has
long depended on the global market to meet domestic demand. In 2005, the
US imported 60% of the energy that it consumed. Since then, however,
the share of imports has decreased, and it should continue to do so. The
US is expected to become energy self-sufficient in 2020, and to become
an oil exporter by 2030.
This
scenario would grant the US three enormous advantages. It would enhance
US economic competitiveness, especially relative to Europe, given the
lower costs involved in the extraction of shale gas. It would also
reduce America’s exposure to growing unrest in the Arab world. Finally,
it would increase the relative vulnerability of America’s main strategic
rival, China, which is becoming increasingly dependent on Middle East
energy supplies.
These facts
obviously need to be taken seriously, but their implications for US
foreign policy in the Middle East should not be too hastily drawn. Above
all, though energy dependence is a key element of US policy in the
region, it is far from being the only factor. Israel’s security and the
desire to contain Iran are equally important.
Moreover,
the Middle East’s role in the global geopolitics of energy will grow in
the coming decades, making it difficult to see how a superpower like
the US could simply walk away from the region. Within the next 15 years,
OPEC countries will account for 50% of global oil production, compared
to only 42% today. Furthermore, the country on which this increase will
most likely hinge is Iraq.
