Foreign Policy.
Is
the Indian Navy about to start mixing it up with China on the high seas? For
years, as the Chinese have modernized their naval fleet, Indian strategists
have worried about what that might mean for India's political and economic
interests. A recent book by C. Raja Mohan, one of India's most influential
strategic thinkers, explores
the prospect of Sino-Indian competition spilling from the Himalayas to the
Indian and Pacific Oceans, risking a struggle for maritime influence in the
region among the United States, China, and India.
So
it was all the more interesting, when, at a press conference Monday, India's top
admiral appeared
to suggest that his navy would defend Indo-Vietnamese oil exploration
efforts in the South China Sea against Chinese aggression. An Indian state-owned
oil company, ONGC Videsh, has been involved in deepwater explorations with
Vietnam in the South China Sea since 2006, despite Chinese claims of
sovereignty over that area.
But
the reality of Admiral D.K. Joshi's statement was far less sensational. Rather
than signalling a deployment,
he merely reinforced the longstanding Indian position that China's naval
modernization concerned India, and that like other maritime powers, India was preparing
for worst-case scenarios. It wasn't even a signal to clear the decks, let alone
a shot across the bow.
Nonetheless,
India is far more likely to become a regular naval presence in the Pacific than
many previously imagined, due to its rapidly expanding economy, improving
military technologies, and growing energy interests. The Indian Navy has
historically been the smallest and most poorly-resourced of India's three
military services, in keeping with the country's security preoccupations at
home and its unresolved land border disputes with Pakistan and China. It has just
60,000 active personnel and a $7 billion annual budget, roughly a quarter of
the strength and resources of China's People's Liberation Army Navy. Its long-range
capabilities come from a single aircraft carrier, a second-hand amphibious
transport dock, 14 German- or Russian-designed diesel-powered submarines, and about
20 destroyers and frigates.
