Council on Foreign Relations.
As Americans went to the polls to elect their president yesterday,
voters in Colorado and Washington chose to legalize marijuana (by
referendum). Not only does this create conflicting state and federal
laws, but it also directly challenges the United States’ war on drugs.
These initiatives, Colorado’s Amendment 64 and Washington’s
Initiative 502, directly conflict with the federal Controlled Substances
Act, which classifies marijuana as a Schedule 1 drug (along with heroin and LSD)—deemed to have “a high potential for abuse and no accepted medical use.” In 2010 Attorney General Eric Holder announced he would “vigorously enforce” federal laws
if marijuana was legalized in California (it wasn’t). Although no
official statement on Washington and Colorado has been released, the
White House’s website maintains that “the Obama Administration has consistently reiterated its firm opposition to any form of drug legalization.”
If these legalizations stand, it would mean big changes for the U.S. marijuana market. According to a 2010 RAND report, prices would drop dramatically.
Consumption would also likely increase—the report estimates that for
every 10 percent decrease in price, the number of consumers would rise
by 3 percent.
Legalization would also have repercussions for U.S. foreign policy,
and especially for U.S.-Mexico relations. A recent Instituto Mexicano
para la Competitividad A.C. (IMCO) report by Alejandro Hope and Eduardo
Clark estimates that legalization in each state would reduce cartels’ profits by 20 to 30 percent.
This revenue drop would change the business models for many organized
crime groups, especially those who rely more heavily on marijuana (such
as the Sinaloa cartel). But these shifts don’t necessarily portend a
decline in violence, especially if the marijuana business is replaced by
stepped up robbery, kidnapping, and extortion.
