Foreign Policy.
If climate
scientists' prophesies of an ice-free Arctic Ocean pan out, the world will
witness the most sweeping transformation of geopolitics since the Panama Canal
opened. Seafaring nations and industries will react assertively -- as they did
when merchantmen and ships of war sailing from Atlantic seaports no longer had
to circumnavigate South America to reach the Pacific Ocean. There are
commercial, constabulary, and military components to this enterprise. The
United States must position itself at the forefront of polar sea power along
all three axes.
Understandably
enough, most commentary on a navigable Arctic accentuates economic opportunities,
such as extracting natural resources and shortening sea voyages. Countries
fronting on polar waters -- the United States, Canada, Denmark, Finland,
Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden comprise the intergovernmental Arctic Council -- will enjoy exclusive
rights to fish and tap undersea resources in hundreds of thousands of square
miles of water off their shores. Nations holding waterfront property in the
Arctic will bolster their coast guards to police their territorial
seas and exclusive economic zones during ice-free intervals.
But they will
not be the only beneficiaries. Former U.S. Navy chief oceanographer David
Titley estimates that "sometime between 2035 and 2040 there is a
pretty good chance that the Arctic Ocean will be essentially ice-free for about
a month" each year. If so, polar shipping
lanes
will cut transit distances by up to 40 percent, saving ship owners big bucks on
fuel and maintenance. They could pass those savings on to producers and consumers
of the cargo their vessels carry. Global warming, it appears, could bestow significant
advantages on mariners, fostering economic growth in the bargain. New sources
of wealth concentrate minds.
But the
geopolitics of climate change is just as consequential as the economics, and
more intriguing. A strategic realignment could take place as the geographic
setting -- the arena where great powers grapple for advantage -- widens to
enfold a new inland sea. Navies will dispatch squadrons to the Arctic Ocean
lest it become a theater for naval rivalry.
