Charles Kupchan/Council on Foreign Relations.
The global distribution of power is fast changing. Europe and the
United States, which for some two centuries have together dominated the
global landscape, are ceding power and influence to China, India,
Brazil, and other emerging powers. The implications of this continuing
redistribution of global power will be magnified by the fact that rising
nations are forging their own brands of governance and capitalism, not
embracing the political and economic norms associated with the "Western
way." The twenty-first century will not belong to Europe, the United
States, China, or anyone else; it will be no one's world.
As they look ahead, Western democracies thus face the prospect of a
world transformed. Their global sway is on the wane. Their brand of
modernity – liberal democracy, industrial capitalism, and secular
nationalism – will have to compete with other political and economic
models, including state capitalism in China and Russia, political Islam
in the Middle East, and left-wing populism in Latin America. If the West
is to succeed in adjusting to these changes and anchoring the
quickening turn in global affairs, it will have to reclaim its economic
health and recover its political vitality – not easy tasks when Europe
is being pulled apart by its debt crisis and the United States is
virtually paralyzed by partisan polarization.
The next few decades will bring a complete overhaul of the global
pecking order. During the Cold War, the Western allies accounted for
more than two-thirds of global output. Now they represent about half of
output—and soon much less. As of 2010, four of the top five economies in
the world were still from the developed world (the United States,
Japan, Germany, and France). From the developing world, only China made
the grade, occupying second place. By 2050, according to Goldman Sachs,
four of the top five economies will come from the developing world
(China, India, Brazil, and Russia). From today's developed world, only
the United States will make the cut; it will rank second, and its
economy will be about half the size of China's.
