CFR: World Energy Outlook 2012

Council of Foreign Relations

The underbelly of the global economy

Nicola Phillips
Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute

Few can have failed to notice the slew of stories in recent weeks on a common theme: the prevalence of labour exploitation within the global economy.

The stories are harrowing. They include the deaths of well over 100 workers in a fire in a garments-producing factory in Bangladesh, supplying firms which are household names for the world’s consumers; the discovery of trafficked workers employed in the UK by Nobel Foods, a company supplying eggs to many major supermarkets and retailers; the admission by Ikea that it knowingly used forced labour in its supply chain in East Germany during the 1980s; the escalating strikes by farm workers in the Western Cape of South Africa in protest against appalling conditions of work.

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La deuda estudiantil es la nueva bomba de tiempo del sistema financiero

Blog Salmón

Una de las consecuencias de la financiarización de la economía desplegada desde los años 80 es el fuerte incremento de la deuda privada y sus silenciosos costos derivados de ese abusivo concepto que es la magia del interés compuesto, tema al cual dedicamos un largo post. El crecimiento exponencial de la deuda por la vía de los intereses ha llevado al mundo al actual colapso en cámara lenta que se sufre en todos los rincones del planeta. La deuda en mora de los créditos estudiantiles en EEUU llega a los 110 mil millones de dólares.

Como muestra la siguiente gráfica extraída de los datos de la Reserva Federal de Nueva York (ver las tablas en Excel), la deuda estudiantil aumentó en 42 mil millones de dólares el tercer trimestre y se acerca al billón de dólares (956.000 millones de dólares), superando con creces la deuda de las tarjetas de crédito. Pero mientras la deuda de las tarjetas de crédito ha descendido un 2 por ciento desde enero de 2003 a septiembre de 2012 (como parte del proceso de desapalancamiento financiero que sufre esa economía) pasando de 688.000 millones de dólares a 674.000 millones de dólares, la deuda estudiantil se ha cuadruplicado al pasar de 241.000 millones de dólares en enero de 2003 a 956.000 millones de dólares en septiembre de este año, aumentando un 297 por ciento en el período a un promedio del 16,4 por ciento anual. 

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The New War on Drugs: ASEAN Style

The Diplomat

The pledge by ASEAN leaders to intensify campaigns to create a drug-free ASEAN by 2015 is increasingly out of step with international trends which, according to the recent findings of The Global Commission on Drug Policy, increasingly favor drug policy reforms like decriminalization and treating addiction as a public health issue.

 

Dr. Michel Kazatchkine, a member of the Global Commission on Drug Policy told a Bangkok forum that the war on drugs is a failure. Citing the commission’s recent report, Kazatchkine said, “We recommend immediate major reforms of the global prohibition regime to halt the spread of HIV infection…” and other health problems.

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Nanotecnología para aligerar huella petrolera de Venezuela

IPS

CARACAS, nov (Tierramérica) - Venezuela está empleando nanotecnología para desarrollar nuevos catalizadores aplicables para reducir la emisión de gases de efecto invernadero que causa su industria petrolera.Nano es la escala de lo diminuto: una partícula de un nanómetro (nm) mide la millonésima parte de un milímetro; en números: 0,000000001 metros.

"Buscamos emplear nanopartículas de sales de metales, por ejemplo nitratos de hierro o níquel, o cobalto, como catalizadores en procesos petroleros en los que se generan gases invernadero", señaló a Tierramérica la investigadora Sarah Briceño, del Centro de Física del estatal Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas (IVIC).

Los catalizadores son sustancias empleadas para acelerar procesos químicos, "y nuestro objetivo es lograr los adecuados a la industria venezolana y que permitan reducir hasta en un 50 por ciento la emisión de gases en tareas como el refinado de petróleo o el consumo de combustible en vehículos", dijo Briceño.

Venezuela, socio fundador de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP), extrae casi tres millones de barriles diarios y tiene reservas de crudo pesado superiores a los 200.000 millones de barriles. 

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UN votes to upgrade Palestinian status

Al-Jazeera

The United Nations General Assembly has voted in favour of upgrading the Palestinians status to that of a non-member observer state. The vote was taken at a meeting of the body in New York, with 138 countries voting in favour of the upgrade. Nine countries voted against it, and 41 others abstained.

Thousands of Palestinians gathered across the West Bank and Gaza to demonstrate their support for the fresh attempt by President Mahmoud Abbas to secure the status. Palestinians were previously listed as a UN observer "entity" with no voting rights.

The new status is an indirect recognition of the Palestinians' claims on statehood in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip. It allows them to join a number of UN agencies, as well as the International Criminal Court (ICC). Abbas addressed the General Assembly ahead of the vote.

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France to back Palestinian bid for UN status

BBC

France has confirmed it intends to vote for Palestinian non-member status at the United Nations later this week.

Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said France had long backed Palestinian ambitions for statehood and would vote yes "out of a concern for coherency".

The Palestinians are asking the UN General Assembly to upgrade their status from permanent observer to a "non-member observer state".

The vote is due to take place later this week.

"This Thursday or Friday, when the question is asked, France will vote yes," Mr Fabius told the lower house of parliament.

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Global economy facing hesitant and uneven recovery, says OECD

OECD.

The global economy is expected to make a hesitant and uneven recovery over the coming two years. Decisive policy action is needed to ensure that stalemate over fiscal policy in the United States and continuing euroarea instability do not plunge the world back into recession, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. “The world economy is far from being out of the woods,” OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said during the Economic Outlook launch in Paris. “The US ‘fiscal cliff’, if it materialises, could tip an already weak economy into recession, while failure to solve the euro area crisis could lead to a major financial shock and global downturn. Governments must act decisively, using all the tools at their disposal to turn confidence around and boost growth and jobs, in the United States, in Europe, and elsewhere,” Mr Gurría said.

GDP growth across the OECD is projected to match this year’s 1.4% in 2013, before gathering momentum to 2.3% for 2014, according to the Outlook.

In the United States, provided the “fiscal cliff” is avoided, GDP growth is projected at 2% in 2013 before rising to 2.8% in 2014. In Japan, GDP is expected to expand by 0.7% in 2013 and 0.8% in 2014. The euro area will remain in recession until early 2013, leading to a mild contraction in GDP of 0.1% next year, before growth picks up to 1.3% in 2014.

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Link al informe.

The Australian Dollar: A Global Currency?

The Diplomat.

Australia has long prided itself on “punching above its weight” in global sporting contests such as the Olympics. Now, the resource-rich nation of 22.6 million people and the world’s 12^th biggest economy may see its currency do the same, with the Australian dollar forecast to join the world’s elite.

Once derided as the “Pacific peso,” the Australian dollar may by 2015 become an official global reserve currency, adding to underlying demand for a currency already considered overvalued by the nation’s exporters.

The International Monetary Fund reportedly plans to include the “Aussie” as well as the Canadian dollar in next year’s COFER (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) surveys, which currently consists of the U.S. dollar, Swiss franc, euro, pound sterling and Japanese yen.

The symbolic move is seen as the first step toward making the Aussie part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which are used by central banks to calculate their obligations to the fund.

The bulk of global foreign exchange reserves are held in the five COFER currencies, and with foreign governments already holding an estimated A$60 billion worth of Australian dollars, demand from central banks around the world would likely swell.

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Brasil: Embraer diseña vigilancia para frontera con Paraguay y Bolivia

Infolatam

La empresa aeronáutica brasileña Embraer firmó un contrato por 839 millones de reales (unos 420 millones de dólares) con el Ejército de Brasil para desarrollar la primera fase del Sistema Integrado de Vigilancia de Fronteras (Sisfron), en una zona lindante con Paraguay y Bolivia.

Según un comunicado, el contrato fue suscrito por el consorcio Tepro, integrado por empresas controladas por Embraer y ganador de una licitación abierta por el Ejército para desarrollar una compleja red de radares, sensores, sistemas de comunicaciones y aviones no tripulados con el fin de vigilar las fronteras.

Esta red, una vez implementada, permitirá vigilar a distancia los 16.886 kilómetros de frontera terrestre de Brasil con once países vecinos.

La fase inicial del Sisfron, objeto del primer contrato, prevé la vigilancia de cerca de 650 kilómetros de frontera terrestre en Mato Grosso do Sul, estado lindante con Paraguay y Bolivia.

Según la Empresa Brasileña de Aeronáutica (Embraer), en dicha frontera serán instalados subsistemas del Sisfron que estarán conectados a la IV Brigada de Caballería Mecanizada, con sede en la ciudad de Dourados, y al cuartel general del Comando Militar del Oeste, con sede en Campo Grande, la capital regional, así como al Comando Central del Ejército en Brasilia.

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Japan Is Flexing Its Military Muscle to Counter a Rising China

The New York Times

TOKYO — After years of watching its international influence eroded by a slow-motion economic decline, the pacifist nation of Japan is trying to raise its profile in a new way, offering military aid for the first time in decades and displaying its own armed forces in an effort to build regional alliances and shore up other countries’ defenses to counter a rising China. 

Already this year, Japan crossed a little-noted threshold by providing its first military aid abroad since the end of World War II, approving a $2 million package for its military engineers to train troops in Cambodia and East Timor in disaster relief and skills like road building. 

 Japanese warships have not only conducted joint exercises with a growing number of military forces in the Pacific and Asia, but they have also begun making regular port visits to countries long fearful of a resurgence of Japan’s military. 

And after stepping up civilian aid programs to train and equip the coast guards of other nations, Japanese defense officials and analysts say, Japan could soon reach another milestone: beginning sales in the region of military hardware like seaplanes, and perhaps eventually the stealthy diesel-powered submarines considered well suited to the shallow waters where China is making increasingly assertive territorial claims. 

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10k US troops to stay in Afghanistan past 2014 deadline

RT.

Ten thousand US troops will stay in Afghanistan past 2014, senior officials say, despite earlier demands from President Barack Obama to end the war during the second year of his upcoming term. 

Most of the 66,000 or so troops currently positioned in Afghanistan will be removed by President Obama’s predetermined deadline, sources say, but a substantial amount of Americans will be asked to remain indefinitely to conduct training and counterterrorism operations after allied North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops are expunged in late 2014.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Gen. John Allen, the top US commander overseeing the war in Afghanistan, proposed that anywhere from 6,000 to 15,000 troops remain overseas following the end of the current NATO operation occurring there. A number closer to 10,000 was established after top Obama administration officials reached a compromise with the Pentagon, the paper reports.

However, the claims have not been confirmed by the Obama administration, with White House spokesman Jay Carney telling reporters Monday that the president was still reviewing the proposal. 

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China conducts flight landing on aircraft carrier

Xinhua.

LIAONING AIRCRAFT CARRIER, Nov. 25 (Xinhua) -- China has successfully conducted flight landing on its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, naval sources said.

A new J-15 fighter jet was used as part of the landing exercise.

After its delivery to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy on Sept. 25, the aircraft carrier has undergone a series of sailing and technological tests, including the flight of the carrier-borne J-15.
Capabilities of the carrier platform and the J-15 have been tested, meeting all requirements and achieving good compatibility, the PLA Navy said.

Since the carrier entered service, the crew have completed more than 100 training and test programs.
The successful flight landing also marked the debut of the J-15 as China's first generation multi-purpose carrier-borne fighter jet, the PLA Navy said.

Designed by and made in China, the J-15 is able to carry multi-type anti-ship, air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, as well as precision-guided bombs.

The J-15 has comprehensive capabilities comparable to those of the Russian Su-33 jet and the U.S. F-18, military experts estimated.

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Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust

Brookings

Although both Beijing and Washington consider the U.S.-China relationship to be the most important in the world, distrust of each other’s long term intentions ("strategic distrust") has grown to a dangerous degree.

The coauthors of this path-breaking study—one of America's leading China specialists and one of China's leading America specialists—lay out both the underlying concerns each leadership harbors about the other side and the reasons for those concerns. Each coauthor has written the narrative of his government’s views without any changes made by the other coauthor. Their purpose is to enable both leaderships to better fathom how the other thinks. The coauthors have together written the follow-on analysis and recommendations designed to improve the potential for a long-term normal major power U.S.-China relationship, rather than the adversarial relationship that might otherwise develop.

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Link al reporte.

Expert Issues a Cyberwar Warning

The New York Times.

MOSCOW — When Eugene Kaspersky, the founder of Europe’s largest antivirus company, discovered the Flame virus that is afflicting computers in Iran and the Middle East, he recognized it as a technologically sophisticated virus that only a government could create. 

He also recognized that the virus, which he compares to the Stuxnet virus built by programmers employed by the United States and Israel, adds weight to his warnings of the grave dangers posed by governments that manufacture and release viruses on the Internet. 

“Cyberweapons are the most dangerous innovation of this century,” he told a gathering of technology company executives, called the CeBIT conference, last month in Sydney, Australia. While the United States and Israel are using the weapons to slow the nuclear bomb-making abilities of Iran, they could also be used to disrupt power grids and financial systems or even wreak havoc with military defenses.

Computer security companies have for years used their discovery of a new virus or worm to call attention to themselves and win more business from companies seeking computer protection. Mr. Kaspersky, a Russian computer security expert, and his company, Kaspersky Lab, are no different in that regard. But he is also using his company’s integral role in exposing or decrypting three computer viruses apparently intended to slow or halt Iran’s nuclear program to argue for an international treaty banning computer warfare. 

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Cataluña: El revés electoral de CiU le aboca a buscar pactos para su plan soberanista

EFE.

Barcelona, 26 nov (EFE).- Artur Mas (CiU) ha ganado las elecciones catalanas, pero no sólo sin la ansiada mayoría absoluta, sino perdiendo doce escaños respecto a 2010, lo que le aboca a negociar pactos con ERC en primera instancia para impulsar su prometida consulta soberanista.

Estos han sido los comicios con mayor participación en Cataluña -casi 11 puntos más que hace dos años- y, en ellos, se han dado otras claves históricas: el mejor resultado histórico del PPC y el peor del PSC -aunque Pere Navarro ha salvado la segunda posición en número de votos- la consecución por ERC del segundo puesto y la consolidación por parte de Ciutadans de un grupo propio en sus terceras autonómicas.

CiU ha logrado el tercer peor resultado de su historia, ya que habría que remontarse a 1980, en las primeras autonómicas catalanas con Jordi Pujol, con 43 diputados y a 2003, en las primeras sin él y con 46 escaños, para vislumbrar un escenario semejante para CiU.

ERC, que en 2010 se hundió con 10 diputados, ha más que duplicado ese resultado con el nuevo liderazgo de Oriol Junquera que se perfila como la figura clave en las próximas semanas a la hora de conformar una mayoría parlamentaria.

Habrá que ver si los republicanos están dispuestos a apoyar los recortes económicos y sociales de Artur Mas, y a la vez acompañarle en la apuesta por el proceso soberanista.

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The rise of Mexico

The Economist.

NEXT week the leaders of North America’s two most populous countries are due to meet for a neighbourly chat in Washington, DC. The re-elected Barack Obama and Mexico’s president-elect, Enrique Peña Nieto, have plenty to talk about: Mexico is changing in ways that will profoundly affect its big northern neighbour, and unless America rethinks its outdated picture of life across the border, both countries risk forgoing the benefits promised by Mexico’s rise.

The White House does not spend much time looking south. During six hours of televised campaign debates this year, neither Mr Obama nor his vice-president mentioned Mexico directly. That is extraordinary. One in ten Mexican citizens lives in the United States. Include their American-born descendants and you have about 33m people (or around a tenth of America’s population). And Mexico itself is more than the bloody appendix of American imaginations. In terms of GDP it ranks just ahead of South Korea. In 2011 the Mexican economy grew faster than Brazil’s—and will do so again in 2012.

Yet Americans are gloomy about Mexico, and so is their government: three years ago Pentagon analysts warned that Mexico risked becoming a “failed state”. As our special report in this issue explains, that is wildly wrong. In fact, Mexico’s economy and society are doing pretty well. Even the violence, concentrated in a few areas, looks as if it is starting to abate.

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Qatar Looks to Gaza as the Map Continues to Shift

Geopolitical Monitor.

Just few weeks before the beginning of the Operation Pillar of Defense, the emir of Qatar became the first head of state to officially visit the Palestinian enclave of Gaza, ending more than five years of diplomatic isolation for Hamas- since the Hamas-Fatah conflict broke out. This visit represents a new set of challenges for Palestinian unity and for the region’s geopolitical equilibrium as well.

The emir's visit is part of a wider Qatari policy to raise the country’s international profile by way of its sizable fiscal resources. Doha has indeed opened its wallet, vowing $250 million earlier this year- a sum that was increased to $400 million upon the emir's arrival in Gaza. Though such a sum of money will be seen as important by the government in Gaza, it is markedly less so for Doha.

Last year, Qatar became one of the fastest growing economies in the Middle East thanks to its large natural gas and oil reserves.

Money is not the most important point of Sheik Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani's trip. The emir’s visit has to be seen in a wider context: by breaking Hamas' isolation and the de-facto recognition of its leadership in Gaza, Doha has strengthened the militant group against its West Bank counterpart- Fatah- threatening to deepen the estrangement between the two political factions. Hamas can now count on Qatari money and, as events have recently shown, Egyptian support in the diplomatic realm.  Consequently, the potential for peace with Tel Aviv will be adversely affected as the idea of two-party peace talks becomes less and less realistic.

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Open Seas: The Arctic is the Mediterranean of the 21st century.

Foreign Policy.

If climate scientists' prophesies of an ice-free Arctic Ocean pan out, the world will witness the most sweeping transformation of geopolitics since the Panama Canal opened. Seafaring nations and industries will react assertively -- as they did when merchantmen and ships of war sailing from Atlantic seaports no longer had to circumnavigate South America to reach the Pacific Ocean. There are commercial, constabulary, and military components to this enterprise. The United States must position itself at the forefront of polar sea power along all three axes.

Understandably enough, most commentary on a navigable Arctic accentuates economic opportunities, such as extracting natural resources and shortening sea voyages. Countries fronting on polar waters -- the United States, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden comprise the intergovernmental Arctic Council -- will enjoy exclusive rights to fish and tap undersea resources in hundreds of thousands of square miles of water off their shores. Nations holding waterfront property in the Arctic will bolster their coast guards to police their territorial seas and exclusive economic zones during ice-free intervals. 

But they will not be the only beneficiaries. Former U.S. Navy chief oceanographer David Titley estimates that "sometime between 2035 and 2040 there is a pretty good chance that the Arctic Ocean will be essentially ice-free for about a month" each year. If so, polar shipping lanes will cut transit distances by up to 40 percent, saving ship owners big bucks on fuel and maintenance. They could pass those savings on to producers and consumers of the cargo their vessels carry. Global warming, it appears, could bestow significant advantages on mariners, fostering economic growth in the bargain. New sources of wealth concentrate minds. 

But the geopolitics of climate change is just as consequential as the economics, and more intriguing. A strategic realignment could take place as the geographic setting -- the arena where great powers grapple for advantage -- widens to enfold a new inland sea. Navies will dispatch squadrons to the Arctic Ocean lest it become a theater for naval rivalry. 

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The Future of Global Warfare: Killer Robots

Human Rights Watch.

Despite a lack of public awareness and public debate a number of governments, including European states, are pushing forward with the development of fully autonomous weapons - also known as killer robots. These are weapon systems that will function without any human intervention. The armed robot itself will select its target and will determine when to fire. This is a frighteningly dangerous path to follow in terms of the need to protect civilians during armed conflict.

Killer robots would be unable to distinguish adequately between combatants and civilians in the increasingly complex circumstances of modern battlefields, and would be unable to make proper proportionality determinations. That is, whether the military advantages of an attack exceed the potential harm to civilians. Giving machines the power to decide who lives and dies on the battlefield would take technology too far. Killer robots would lack the human qualities necessary to protect civilians and comply with international humanitarian law. They would lack the ability to relate to humans and to apply human judgment.

They would also create an accountability gap, as it would be unclear who should be held responsible for the inevitable violations of the law that would occur. Fully autonomous weapons do not yet exist, though precursors do. The precursors demonstrate the rapid movement toward autonomy and replacing humans on the battlefield. The United States is the most active in developing these technologies but others include China, Germany, Israel, Russia, South Korea and the United Kingdom.

Sophisticated fully autonomous weapons may be fielded within 20 or 30 years, according to many experts; some of whom indicate that cruder versions could be available much sooner - in a matter of years not decades. Armed drones are not fully autonomous weapons and not part of the call for a ban. Human Rights Watch has extensively criticised the way drones have been used - for extrajudicial killings for example - but the key issue with drones is not the nature of the weapon, as it is with fully autonomous weapons. Drones have a 'man-in-the-loop' with a human remotely selecting the target and deciding when to fire. With killer robots, the human is out-of-the-loop and the machine determines what to attack and when.

We have has just released the first in-depth report by a non-governmental organisation looking at this issue Losing humanity: the case against killer robots. We conclude that these weapons would not be able to comply with international humanitarian law standards and would pose unacceptable dangers to civilians. And we are calling for a pre-emptive ban on the development, production, and use of fully autonomous weapons. Governments should enact such a ban at the national level, as a stepping stone to an international treaty with a comprehensive prohibition.

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Oscar Ugarteche: Perú, la matriz nvertida

ALAI

Hace quince meses, el Perú tenía un tablero político donde estaban a la izquierda Ollanta Humala y los nacionalistas y a la derecha Keiko Fujimori y la derecha radical. La gran prensa - la asociada a la SIP- estaba con Keiko Fujimori; y la embajada de Estados Unidos apoyaba esa candidatura. Humala era el sinónimo del “mal” en términos de la gran prensa, y Keiko del “bien” con un único defecto, que quería sacar a su papá de la cárcel. Fuera de eso todo estaba muy bien.

 

Quince meses más tarde, primero Humala echó a los de izquierda que lo llevaron al poder (a los 136 días), luego argumentó en televisión que hizo eso porque “esa gente” no sabía trabajar. Eso fue acompañado de un viraje de política exterior contra los esquemas de integración llegando al extremo donde el Perú no preside el grupo de trabajo de integración financiera de UNASUR como le corresponde y al mismo tiempo lidera la presencia militar estadounidense en territorio sudamericano rompiendo con la idea del Consejo de Defensa Sudamericano, parte esencial de UNASUR.

 

Ya virado el rumbo político ahora hay una inversión de la matriz política a través de la iniciativa de Humala de indulto a Fujimori, que fue un acto gratuito. Solo que en política no hay actos gratuitos. La única explicación es que el entorno montesinista lo sedujo a esa idea sin pensar que si indultas a Fujimori tienes que indultar a todos los que están en la cárcel por razones análogas. Al menos tienes que pensar que ese otro lado va a pedir el indulto en paralelo. De Montesinos mismo ese grupo no tiene gran preocupación porque está saliendo bien librado de los juicios por tráfico de drogas y corrupción en todos los casos. Esto dejará a Montesinos libre en el 2016 como mucho, o quizás antes por buena conducta.

 

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Encounters with Michael Klare

Amhertz Media
November 2012

Ian Bremmer: The Obama “Doctrine”, Conflict in the Middle East, and China’s Future.

The Diplomat.

The Diplomat's Editor Harry Kazianis recently spoke with noted author and president of Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, about President Obama's recent trip to Southeast Asia, how tensions in the Middle East could affect America's renewed focus on Asia and China's future.

1. This week President Obama and senior members of his foreign policy team visited a series of nations in Southeast Asia including Burma. Many have argued that with ethnic tensions still unresolved, the Obama administration has moved too fast to restore relations and trade. Some have also argued the administrations moves have had more to do with China than Burma itself. What is your take?

During his trip to Myanmar earlier this week, Obama made the trek to the home of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, where she had spent more than two decades under house arrest.  While the White House was still planning the trip, she cautioned the administration against visiting Myanmar at all, urging Obama not to be lured by the “mirage of success.”  So why would Obama make it a priority to visit a country whose national hero warned him not to do it—a trip that could come back to bite him if the reform process goes south? 

It’s because Obama’s trip through Southeast Asia is all about China.  The Obama “doctrine,” to the extent that there is one, is the pivot to Asia…and the use of economic statecraft, as originally coined by Hillary Clinton.  Both center on the rise of China and the potential challenges that come with it, especially if China doesn’t align its behavior with international norms.  There’s a security and an economic component.  Aiming to add Thailand to the Trans-Pacific Partnership—a potential free trade agreement of like minded countries that could serve as a counterweight to China’s regional economic dominance— and removing sanctions on Burma are actions that the United States is taking through this China lens.

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Across Europe, leaders fear spectre of separatists breaking countries apart

The Guardian.

Amid the statuary, marble and lavish wood panelling inside Antwerp's Renaissance-era town hall, a slow revolution is being plotted. Strolling in the autumn sunshine outside, Martin Roef seems an unlikely radical, but the retired lawyer harbours few doubts about the machinations of the politicians inside.

"The problem's down south. It's the French-speakers. They eat from the north, they eat from us and they want it to stay that way. We should split up and make Flanders a separate country. We'd be better living together but separately. Perhaps De Wever will make a difference."

He is referring to the rising star of Belgian politics, who has just conquered the town hall in a victory that merits the term historic. Bart de Wever, leader of the New Flemish Alliance, is a separatist and nationalist bent on redrawing the map of the European Union. Like Alex Salmond in Edinburgh or Artur Mas in Barcelona, De Wever is far from a fringe extremist. He is a mainstream conservative who wants to break Belgium apart and whose support is soaring.

"The end goal is clear for De Wever. He wants Flanders as an independent state in a democratic Europe," said Lieven de Winter, a professor of politics and expert on European regionalism at Belgium's Louvain University.

Catalonia goes to the polls this weekend in a fateful early election tipped to produce a mandate for an independence referendum. Scotland has its vote on separate statehood in two years. Around the same time in 2014, De Wever looks likely to be fighting national and regional elections in Belgium from a position of strength, seeking support for the gradual break-up of the country between Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north and French-speaking Wallonia in the south.

"He will certainly be calling for a form of confederalism, meaning two separate states that do a couple of things together," said De Winter.

"He has a new vision for politics, for the city, and for the country," said Robert van de Voorde, a post office worker. "He's very radical. He's saying we Flemish have had enough. I don't want a break-up, but it's very possible. A lot of Flemish think it would be better."

Antwerp v Brussels, Edinburgh v London, Barcelona v Madrid – in this tussle of regionalism against national capitals, Europe is both cause and effect.

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Egypt President Mursi defends new powers amid protests

BBC World News

President Mohammed Mursi has appeared before supporters in Cairo to defend a new decree that grants him sweeping powers.

He told them he was leading Egypt on a path to "freedom and democracy" and was the guardian of stability.

He was speaking as thousands of opponents gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square and offices of the president's party were attacked in several cities.

The decree says presidential decisions cannot be revoked by any authority.

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Las “fronteras calientes” de América Latina.

Infolatam.

El despliegue militar brasileño el pasado agosto de más de 9.000 tropas equipadas con helicópteros de combate, navíos de guerra, patrulleros, aviones caza, vehículos blindados y aviones no tripulados (drones) a lo largo de sus fronteras con Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia y Uruguay, en la operación denominada ‘Ágata 5’,  tuvo como objetivo declarado reprimir la “criminalidad” -y especialmente el tráfico de drogas- y “reforzar la presencia del Estado” en las cuencas del Plata y el Paraná.

América Latina se precia de ser una de las regiones del mundo que menos conflictos bélicos ha tenido en su historia por litigios fronterizos. La última guerra de cierta envergadura entre países latinoamericanos fue la del Chaco, entre Bolivia y Paraguay, en los años treinta del siglo pasado. Desde entonces, los diferendos territoriales en la región han tendido a resolverse apelando a instancias arbitrales como la Corte Internacional de La Haya, como ocurre actualmente entre Chile y el Perú.

Sin embargo, en los últimos años varias fronteras en la región han comenzado a generar crecientes tensiones internacionales por el aumento de la presencia de un actor especialmente peligroso: el crimen organizado. Entre las principales “fronteras ardientes” por la convergencia del narcotráfico, el contrabando y las guerrillas están la “triple frontera”, que comparten Argentina, Paraguay y Brasil; la de Brasil con Venezuela, la de Guatemala con México; la de Colombia con Ecuador y, sobre todo, la de Colombia con Venezuela.

En las zonas más remotas, como en las fronteras brasileñas del norte, etnias indígenas como las de los yanomami son víctimas de las incursiones de mineros ilegales y taladores de maderas valiosas para los que los aborígenes resultan testigos incómodos de sus actividades.

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Bolivia fue invitada a formar parte del Mercado Común del Sur

teleSUR.

Bolivia recibió este martes una invitación formal para sumarse como miembro al Mercado Común del Sur (Mercosur), de acuerdo con lo informado por el ministro de Exteriores de ese país, David Choquehuanca.

La invitación fue planteada en La Paz por el alto comisionado del Mercosur, el brasileño Iván Ramalho, en una reunión con Choquehuanca y con los ministros bolivianos de Economía, Luis Arce, y de Planificación, Viviana Caro.

El titular detalló que las negociaciones podrían comenzar en la próxima cumbre del bloque que se celebrará en diciembre en Brasilia.

"Una vez que Bolivia tome la decisión, en la próxima cumbre del Mercosur, que va a ser en Brasilia el próximo 6 y 7 (de diciembre), ya iniciaremos un proceso de diálogo, un proceso de trabajo", declaró Choquehuanca a los medios.

Agregó que el presidente Evo Morales asistirá a la reunión de Brasilia e informará allí la decisión de su país, si bien señaló que primero deberán analizar los beneficios que le reportaría su incorporación al bloque.

Mientras, Ramalho destacó la importancia de que Bolivia se integre al mecanismo de integración regional.

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Ecuador sube en índice de clima de negocios en América Latina, según informe del Centro de Estudios Económicos Getulio Vargas.

ANDES.

Los países donde más subió el Índice de Clima Económico (ICE) de América Latina, compuesto por el índice de situación actual (ISA) y el índice de expectativas (IE), fueron Perú, que pasó de 6.4 a 7.2 puntos, Chile, de 4.9 a 6.2, Ecuador, de 6 a 6.7, Bolivia, de 4.3 a 5, y México, de 4.1 a 4.8. Sin embargo, el principal problema es la falta de mano de obra calificada.

En general, el ICE de América Latina subió a 5.2 puntos, su mejor nivel desde julio del 2011, cuando llegó a 5.8 puntos. El estudio se realizó en base a consultas a 149 especialistas en 18 países.

Por países, sólo tres de los once analizados registraron un empeoramiento del clima para los negocios: el ICE bajó de 4,7 puntos a 3,4 en Argentina; de 4,2 a 3 en Paraguay y de 4,5 a 3,4 en Venezuela.

Según el informe divulgado por el centro privado de estudios económicos Fundación Getulio Vargas (FGV), Perú desplazó a Colombia como el país con mejor clima para los negocios, en tanto que Paraguay sustituyó a México como el peor y se une a Argentina y Venezuela como los únicos tres en los que ha empeorado ese índice.

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Gaza Conflict as Trial Run

The New York Times.

WASHINGTON — The conflict that ended, for now, in a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel seemed like the latest episode in a periodic showdown. But there was a second, strategic agenda unfolding, according to American and Israeli officials: The exchange was something of a practice run for any future armed confrontation with Iran, featuring improved rockets that can reach Jerusalem and new antimissile systems to counter them.

It is Iran, of course, that most preoccupies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Obama. While disagreeing on tactics, both have made it clear that time is short, probably measured in months, to resolve the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program. 

And one key to their war-gaming has been cutting off Iran’s ability to slip next-generation missiles into the Gaza Strip or Lebanon, where they could be launched by Iran’s surrogates, Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, during any crisis over sanctions or an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

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Congo Rebels, After Victory, Vow to Take the Capital

The New York Times.

GOMA, Democratic Republic of Congo — No visa is necessary to cross this border anymore. Nor do red-eyed soldiers hang around reeking of home-brew. Gone, too, are many of the quasi-government officials who used to buzz around this border post harassing travelers and squeezing out bribes, including one little man who claimed to be a health officer and had “Doc” scribbled in Magic Marker on his coat. 

Instead, the doorway to Goma, one of Congo’s largest and most strategic cities, is now manned by lean, young rebels in crisp fatigues. They captured this town on Tuesday, ridding it of an often sloppy and menacing Congolese Army presence, and on Wednesday the rebels announced at a triumphant rally that Goma was just the beginning. 

“We’re going to Kinshasa!” vowed Col. Vianney Kazarama, a spokesman for the M23 rebel group.

Kinshasa, the capital, is nearly 1,000 miles away, but the rebels are beginning to eat away at that distance, day by day. On Wednesday, rebel forces met virtually no resistance as they swept into the strategic town of Sake, down the road from Goma. Local militiamen have also pushed the army out of other areas as more of this vast and complicated country spins out of government control. 

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Calm returns as Gaza-Israel ceasefire holds

Al Jazeera.

As life in Gaza began to show signs that it was returning to normal, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak warned that Israel may resume its attacks any time if a truce that ended a week of bloodshed fails to hold.

The ceasefire "can last nine days, nine weeks or more, but if it does not hold we will know what to do, and then of course we shall consider the possibility of resuming our (military) activity in case of shooting or provocation," he told public radio on Thursday.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh held a press briefing on Thursday and thanked Egypt and "believer" Mohamed Morsi for his country's efforts in securing the ceasefire saying Gaza's victory is clear and the moment for Egypt and the region had arrived.

"I thank our Egyptian brothers and Egyptian intelligence for their tireless efforts to reach the ceasefire. We are satisfied with the ceasefire agreement as a basis for stopping aggression against Gaza."

The morning after it took effect, the ceasefire was being honoured in the Gaza Strip, after eight days of cross-border violence that resulted in the deaths of 162 Palestinians and five Israelis.

Obtained after an intense diplomatic push led by Egypt and the US, the truce came into force at 1900 GMT on Wednesday, based on text of the agreement.

After days and nights cooped up at home, their buildings rocked by an unrelenting Israeli bombing campaign and the sound of outgoing Palestinian rocket fire, residents were eager to reclaim their hometowns and their lives as the truce came into effect.

For the first time in more than a week, the noise of traffic jams and honking horns filled the air in Gaza City, replacing the booms of air strikes and rocket fire.

Al Jazeera's Nicole Johnston, reporting from Gaza City, said that there was calm in the city without the sound of the F16's flying above.

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Skidelsky: Inequality is Killing Capitalism

Project-Syndicate.

LONDON – It is generally agreed that the crisis of 2008-2009 was caused by excessive bank lending, and that the failure to recover adequately from it stems from banks’ refusal to lend, owing to their “broken” balance sheets.

A typical story, much favored by followers of Friedrich von Hayek and the Austrian School of economics, goes like this: In the run up to the crisis, banks lent more money to borrowers than savers would have been prepared to lend otherwise, thanks to excessively cheap money provided by central banks, particularly the United States Federal Reserve. Commercial banks, flush with central banks’ money, advanced credit for many unsound investment projects, with the explosion of financial innovation (particularly of derivative instruments) fueling the lending frenzy.

This inverted pyramid of debt collapsed when the Fed finally put a halt to the spending spree by hiking up interest rates. (The Fed raised its benchmark federal funds rate from 1% in 2004 to 5.25% in 2006 and held it there until August 2007). As a result, house prices collapsed, leaving a trail of zombie banks (whose liabilities far exceeded their assets) and ruined borrowers.

The problem now appears to be one of re-starting bank lending. Impaired banks that do not want to lend must somehow be “made whole.” This has been the purpose of the vast bank bailouts in the US and Europe, followed by several rounds of “quantitative easing,” by which central banks print money and pump it into the banking system through a variety of unorthodox channels. (Hayekians object to this, arguing that, because the crisis was caused by excessive credit, it cannot be overcome with more.)

At the same time, regulatory regimes have been toughened everywhere to prevent banks from jeopardizing the financial system again. For example, in addition to its price-stability mandate, the Bank of England has been given the new task of maintaining “the stability of the financial system.”

This analysis, while seemingly plausible, depends on the belief that it is the supply of credit that is essential to economic health: too much money ruins it, while too little destroys it.

But one can take another view, which is that demand for credit, rather than supply, is the crucial economic driver. After all, banks are bound to lend on adequate collateral; and, in the run-up to the crisis, rising house prices provided it. The supply of credit, in other words, resulted from the demand for credit.

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Kupchan: Getting Ready for a World Transformed

Charles Kupchan/Council on Foreign Relations.

The global distribution of power is fast changing. Europe and the United States, which for some two centuries have together dominated the global landscape, are ceding power and influence to China, India, Brazil, and other emerging powers. The implications of this continuing redistribution of global power will be magnified by the fact that rising nations are forging their own brands of governance and capitalism, not embracing the political and economic norms associated with the "Western way." The twenty-first century will not belong to Europe, the United States, China, or anyone else; it will be no one's world.

As they look ahead, Western democracies thus face the prospect of a world transformed. Their global sway is on the wane. Their brand of modernity – liberal democracy, industrial capitalism, and secular nationalism – will have to compete with other political and economic models, including state capitalism in China and Russia, political Islam in the Middle East, and left-wing populism in Latin America. If the West is to succeed in adjusting to these changes and anchoring the quickening turn in global affairs, it will have to reclaim its economic health and recover its political vitality – not easy tasks when Europe is being pulled apart by its debt crisis and the United States is virtually paralyzed by partisan polarization.

The next few decades will bring a complete overhaul of the global pecking order. During the Cold War, the Western allies accounted for more than two-thirds of global output. Now they represent about half of output—and soon much less. As of 2010, four of the top five economies in the world were still from the developed world (the United States, Japan, Germany, and France). From the developing world, only China made the grade, occupying second place. By 2050, according to Goldman Sachs, four of the top five economies will come from the developing world (China, India, Brazil, and Russia). From today's developed world, only the United States will make the cut; it will rank second, and its economy will be about half the size of China's.

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Banco Mundial: Informe sobre cambio climático advierte sobre dramático calentamiento del mundo durante este siglo.

Banco Mundial.

Al igual que la imagen satelital del derretimiento de la capa de hielo de Groenlandia tomada durante el verano, un informe reciente sugiere que se puede estar acabando el tiempo para atenuar los riesgos cada vez mayores del cambio climático.

El informe “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided” (Reducir el calor: Por qué se debe evitar un aumento de 4°C de la temperatura mundial) advierte que avanzamos hacia un incremento de 4°C de la temperatura del planeta que provocará olas de calor extremo, disminución de las existencias de alimentos a nivel mundial, pérdida de ecosistemas y biodiversidad, y una elevación potencialmente mortal del nivel de los océanos.

Además, los efectos adversos del calentamiento global se “inclinan en contra de muchas de las regiones más pobres del mundo” y es posible que socaven los esfuerzos y los objetivos mundiales de desarrollo, dice el estudio preparado para el Banco Mundial por el Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research y Climate Analytics. En el documento se insta a tomar “medidas de mitigación adicionales como el mejor seguro contra un futuro incierto”.

Link.

Link al informe.

Clinton heads to Mideast as Israel weighs risky choices on Gaza

The Washington Post.

TEL AVIV — The United States, increasingly worried about the regional effects of protracted warfare between Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip, intensified efforts Tuesday to resolve the week-old crisis, dispatching Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to the Middle East for talks with Israeli and Arab leaders.

Cutting short a trip to Southeast Asia, where she was accompanying President Obama on a three-nation tour, Clinton undertook the mediating effort in an apparent attempt to head off an Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, a step that would mark a major escalation of the conflict and further complicate U.S. relations with regional partners — notably Egypt, an emerging Arab Spring democracy, and Turkey, a key NATO ally.

The trip comes amid continuing violence on both sides, with Israel pounding the strip with airstrikes and Gaza militants of the ruling Hamas organization launching rockets into Israel. 

The death toll from Israel’s military operation stood at 113 on Tuesday morning, according to Gaza health officials, and three Israelis died in a rocket attack last week. Israeli aircraft on Tuesday struck dozens of targets, including the Islamic National Bank, which Hamas set up to fund operations in Gaza in the face of international sanctions.

A backdrop of upheaval across the Middle East has only added to the tension, with the internal struggle in Syria and Israel’s threats against Iran over its nuclear program creating uncertainty on multiple fronts.

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Nicaragua gana soberanía marítima tras fallo de la CIJ

Telesur TV

La Corte Internacional de Justicia (CIJ), con sede en La Haya, extendió este lunes hacia el este la soberanía marítima de Nicaragua en el Caribe, de acuerdo con la sentencia leída por el presidente de la máxima instancia judicial mundial, Peter Tomka.

Tomka detalló las coordenadas del trazado de la nueva frontera, que extiende hacia el oriente la soberanía de Nicaragua, sin embargo se mantiene una legua de jurisdicción colombiana a la altura de las islas de San Andrés y Providencia, así como en un radio de 12 millas náuticas alrededor de los cayos de Serrana y Quitasueño, cuya soberanía otorgó previamente, junto con la de todos los islotes que se encontraban en disputa, a Colombia.

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Just War Moral Philosophy and the 2008–09 Israeli Campaign in Gaza

Jerome Slater/International Security.

The 2008–09 Israeli military campaign in Gaza, commonly known as Operation Cast Lead, is best understood in the context of Israel's “iron wall” strategy. During the 1930s, the strategy emphasized the need for overwhelming military power to break Arab resistance to the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine; since the creation of Israel in 1948, it has continued to be at the core of Israeli policies in the overall Arab-Israeli conflict. 

From the outset, the strategy has included attacks on civilians and their crucial infrastructures. Such attacks violate the just war moral principles of discrimination and noncombatant immunity. In addition, Cast Lead violated the just war principles of just cause and last resort, which state that wars must have a just cause and even then must be undertaken only after nonviolent and political alternatives have failed. 

Israel did not have a just cause in 2008–09, because its primary purpose was to crush resistance to its continuing de facto occupation and repression of Gaza. Further, Israel refused to explore the genuine possibility that Hamas was amenable to a two-state political settlement. Thus, the iron wall strategy and Operation Cast Lead, in particular, have been political as well as moral failures, undermining rather than serving Israel's genuine long-term security needs.

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Link al artículo.

Gaza death toll soars despite calls for truce

Al Jazeera.

Israeli air raids have pounded Gaza for a sixth successive day, raising to 96 the number of Palestinians killed, as the UN secretary-general called for an immediate ceasefire.

Three people, including two children, were killed and 30 others were injured in an air raid before dawn on Monday on a family home in the Zeitoun neighbourhood in Gaza City, medical officials said.

Later, a building housing Hamas-run al-Aqsa TV and international broadcasters was targeted for a second time.

One person was killed in the attack.Sources from the armed group Islamic Jihad said the victim was one of its senior military commanders.

Elsewhere, two more people died in bombing in Nusseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, medics said.

Israel bombed 80 locations in Gaza overnight, the military said on Monday, as officials prepared for a ground offensive if talks for a truce fail.

Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General, was due to arrive in Cairo to add his weight to the truce efforts after Egypt took the lead in trying to negotiate a ceasefire and its officials met the parties on Sunday.

Israeli media said a delegation from Israel had been to Cairo for talks on ending the attacks.

Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's president, met Khaled Meshaal, the political leader of Hamas, which runs the Gaza Strip, and Ramadan Shallah of Islamic Jihad as part of the mediation efforts.

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China Watching Obama's Burma Visit

Voice of  America.

Barack Obama is the first U.S. president to visit Burma. It is part of a trip to Asia meant to reinforce Washington's so-called "Asia pivot" which has raised concerns in Beijing about greater U.S. influence in the region.

U.S. officials say the president's visit recognizes the decision by Burmese leaders to embark on a path of reform and democratization after decades of repression.

Tom Donilon, Obama's national security advisor, says the president believes engagement is the best way to encourage further reforms.

"There’s a lot more to be done, and we are not going to miss this moment in terms of our opportunity to push this along and to try to lock in as much reform and lock in this path forward as best we can," he said.

Donilon says the United States is encouraging Burmese authorities to collaborate further with both the international community and domestic civil society. It is part of what the Obama administration calls a "rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific" - a move toward greater U.S. military, diplomatic, and commercial presence in Asia that has caused anxiety in China.

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Las Farc anuncian cese del fuego unilateral por dos meses

El Tiempo.

El coordinador de los negociadores de esa guerrilla, ‘Iván Márquez’, anunció una tregua unilateral a partir de mañana y por dos meses.

“El secretariado de las Farc, acogiendo el inmenso clamor de paz de los más diversos sectores del pueblo colombiano, ordena a las unidades guerrilleras en toda la geografía nacional el cese de toda clase de operaciones militares ofensivas contra la Fuerza Pública y los actos de sabotaje contra la infraestructura pública o privada”, dice el comunicado de las Farc.

Este texto fue leído por ‘Márquez’ segundos después de ingresar al Centro de Convenciones de La Habana, donde a partir de este lunes se encuentran reunidos los negociadores de esta guerrilla y del Gobierno para comenzar a discutir la agenda de cinco puntos, pactada en agosto 26. Se supone que el tema de tierras será el primero en aboradarse.

Los demás asuntos, trazados para discutir en esta segunda fase del proceso, son la participación política, el fin del conflicto, la solución del problema de las drogas ilícitas y el tratamiento de las víctimas.

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Cumbre Iberoamericana 2012: América Latina da lecciones a Europa

Infolatam.

América Latina, que está experimentado un renacimiento económico, ha dado lecciones a una Europa deprimida por primera vez en la historia de las cumbres iberoamericanas.

La Cumbre Iberoamericana de Cádiz, que cumple 22 años desde el primer encuentro de mandatarios de América Latina y de España y Portugal en la ciudad mexicana de Guadalajara, ha sido el escenario de un cambio de prisma en las relaciones de esta comunidad de más de 600 millones de habitantes.

En esa relación de países unidos por una cultura y lengua común y con muchos altibajos ha sido recurrente durante años el reproche de los países latinoamericanos al paternalismo de los “ricos” socios europeos.

Sin embargo, en la Cumbre de Cádiz los líderes latinoamericanos exhibieron su dinamismo económico y tasas de crecimiento y esta vez fueron ellos los que tendieron la mano a España y Portugal y repartieron consejos.

En los discursos de los gobernantes latinoamericanos en el plenario de la cumbre y en el almuerzo a solas, fue unánime la crítica abierta al enfoque adoptado en Europa para atajar la crisis advirtiendo de que su exceso de austeridad ahoga el crecimiento y puede causar el contagio al otro lado del Atlántico.

La mayoría de los dirigentes recordaron cómo su región sacrificó una “década perdida” por seguir políticas de ajustes dictadas por los organismos multilaterales con plazos difíciles de cumplir.

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Banco Mundial: América Latina: clase media crece a niveles históricos

Banco Mundial.

"Es un incremento histórico, relacionado con la bajada de las tasas de desempleo y la informalidad. Por ello, el crecimiento de la clase media en los últimos diez años tiene que ver con la dinámica de crecimiento y de la generación de empleos", explica Augusto de la Torre, economista jefe regional del Banco Mundial.

Esta es una buena noticia para millones de latinoamericanos que caen dentro del rango de ingresos de $10-US $ 50 por habitante y día --el parámetro utilizado para determinar quien pertenece a la clase media. Sin embargo, en la medida en que las condiciones económicas globales empeoran, los expertos temen que esos flamantes miembros de la clase media se vean expulsados de su nuevo estatus.

Resulta que la vigorosa expansión de la clase media es el resultado directo del boom económico y creación de empleo de los últimos años en América Latina, factores que podrían convertirse en las primeras víctimas de la turbulencia económica en Europa y un crecimiento más lento en China.Obviamente, un mejor acceso a educación de calidad y redes fiables de protección social han jugado un papel importante en sacar a los latinoamericanos de la pobreza y colocarlos en la clase media.

Las siguientes estadísticas apuntalan lo anterior. Más de 73 millones de personas abandonaron las filas de los pobres en la última década. Los latinoamericanos pasaron más tiempo en el salón de clases: un promedio de 8 años de escolaridad por alumno, frente a sólo 5 años históricamente.

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Link al estudio del Banco Mundial

Paul Collier: Putting Capitalism in Order

Social Europe

Forty years ago a British Conservative Prime Minister coined the phrase ‘the unacceptable face of capitalism’ to describe the practices of some companies. This month David Cameron, the current British Conservative Prime Minister, honourably returned to the same theme.

Like any Conservative, Cameron recognizes that good companies are essential for mass prosperity. Their core attribute is to be effective organizations, able to make ordinary people productive: government must not frustrate this process by burdensome regulation. But good companies can be menaced by bad companies as well as by bad governments. Bad companies are those with bad governance. If governments could protect good companies from this menace, they would provide a solution rather than constitute a problem. Bad corporate governance takes three salient forms.

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China's Transformation: A Southeast Asian Perspective

Walden Bello
FPIF

China’s once-in-a-decade leadership transition will have major implications for China’s neighbors in Southeast Asia. Given this, it might be worthwhile to review the changing understanding of the momentous developments in China on the part of people in our region, using my generation—the so-called “baby boomers”—as an example.

Many in my generation in Southeast Asia came of age during the tempestuous years of the Mao era, when China was seeking to assert itself as a revolutionary beacon and undergoing the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. Many were radicalized by the twin forces of the Vietnamese struggle for national liberation against the United States and China’s bid for revolutionary leadership in the third world.

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IEA World Energy Outlook 2012: Resumen Ejecutivo

IEA

Tanto los responsables de la toma de decisiones de la industria y del gobierno como cualesquiera interesados en el sector de la energía necesitan World Energy Outlook 2012 (Perspectivas de la energía en el mundo 2012, (WEO2012). La edición de este año presenta previsiones de las tendencias energéticas hasta 2035 y detalla lo que estas suponen en términos de seguridad energética, sostenibilidad medioambiental y desarrollo económico.

WEO-2012 trata del petróleo, del carbón, del gas natural, de las energías renovables y de la energía nuclear, y actualiza las cuestiones relativas al cambio climático. La demanda de energía, la producción, el comercio internacional, la inversión y las emisiones de dióxido de carbono en el mundo se han desglosado por regiones o países, combustibles y sectores.

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