The Diplomat.
In his new book, The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate,
Robert Kaplan (Stratfor Global Intelligence) contends that current
global conflicts, including wars, political instability, and clashes
over religion, can be better understood and even forecasted through
close examination of the maps that chart our world. In this Q&A, The
National Bureau of Asian Research's Abraham Denmark
asks Kaplan how this theory relates to the Asia-Pacific and what
challenges geography will present for the United States’ policy toward
the region.
For those looking at the Asia-Pacific, what do you think is the most important message of your book?
The most important message about the Asia-Pacific in my book is that
China is both big and small at the same time. China is big in that its
influence extends all the way into the Russian Far East and Central and
Southeast Asia. China is small in the sense that inside China there
exist many minorities—Turks, Tibetans, Inner-Mongolians—that are
restless. As its economic crisis ramps up, we can expect more ethnic
unrest within China.
We should not take the country’s stability for granted. China may
have unstable times ahead that could affect everything in the
Asia-Pacific region, including disputes in the South China Sea and
relations with Japan. The fate of the region hinges on whether China
will remain stable.
What challenges will geography present to the international system as it is currently constructed?
The spread of long-range military capabilities and communications
technologies is making the world smaller and collapsing distance. Yet
this does not mean geography is irrelevant. Quite the opposite,
geography is now more precious. And because geography is more precious,
it is also less stable. The very finite size of the earth itself is a
force for instability. We’re entering not so much a world where there is
an East Asia, a South Asia, and a Southeast Asia, but a world where the
whole of Eurasia constitutes one organic, interconnected geography.
Link.
