Council on Foreign Relations.
This is a guest post by Gabriel Aguilera, an Assistant Professor of International Security Studies at the Air War College. The
views expressed here belong solely to the author and do not necessarily
reflect the official policy of the U.S. Government, Department of
Defense, or Air War College.
During a recent trip to Ecuador I learned more about President Rafael
Correa; why he is popular and why he will most likely be reelected.
Though it’s easy to caricature him as a Chavista populist, it was
difficult to find serious and fair-minded voices in Ecuador that would
say he is anything other than extremely shrewd, sane, pragmatic, and
predictably unpredictable. In contrast to Hugo Chavez, he is making good
use of high oil prices by fixing roads and infrastructure, subsiding
energy, improving the delivery of basic services, raising educational
standards, and providing money transfers to the nation’s poorest
citizens. To be sure, this government is nationalistic, interventionist,
and heavy-handed, and Correa is no conventional democrat, as his attack
on the press so eloquently demonstrated.
There is, however, a method to President Correa’s heavy-handed
tactics. They are arguably necessary in a country where few institutions
work and vested interests, including foreign ones, regularly make use
of raw power via marches, manipulation of the media, and corruption.
Weak chief executives of any stripe would not survive in Ecuador. In
fact, they haven’t. U.S. officials are fretful of Correa who
consistently resists closer ties with Washington. And in all fairness,
it is easy to understand his mistrust given that the United States has
demonstrated a willingness to stir up trouble for leftist governments in
the region, both historically and in recent times.
