Israel reckons with unraveling Gaza policy

The Washington Post

JERUSALEM — When the emir of Qatar paid the first visit by a head of state to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip last week, there were two different reactions from the Israeli Foreign Ministry.

In one statement, Yigal Palmor, a spokesman for the ministry, accused the emir, Sheik Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani, of backing a terrorist organization and having “thrown peace under the bus.”

But an Arabic-language spokesman for the ministry, Lior Ben Dor, told Radio Sawa, a U.S.- funded station heard across the Middle East, that Israel welcomed the visit of the emir, who pledged generous financial aid.

“Since our withdrawal from Gaza, the goal has been that Arab states come and help the residents of Gaza,” Ben Dor said, referring to the Israeli pullout in 2005.

The double message was a symptom of the unraveling of an Israeli policy toward Gaza that was put in place after Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by Israel and the United States, seized control of the territory in June 2007.

Link.

“Hay que latinoamericanizar Europa”

IADE
Entrevista a Chantal Mouffe por Javier Lorca

Mouffe plantea la necesidad de aceptar distintos modelos de democracia en un mundo multipolar y destaca las recientes experiencias en América latina “que muestran que es posible luchar contra el neoliberalismo”. También defiende la idea de alternativa por sobre la de alternancia. 

En un mundo multipolar, la democracia no puede ser un modelo único, exportado desde Europa y Norteamérica al resto del mundo. “Hay que aceptar que va a haber distintas formas de democracia, que corresponden a su adscripción en distintos contextos históricos”, dice la politóloga belga Chantal Mouffe. En perfecto castellano, modulado por una tonalidad francesa, Mouffe reivindica las experiencias democráticas latinoamericanas, en las que observa no un rechazo al modelo liberal-democrático occidental, sino una rearticulación de esas tradiciones pero “con predominio de la soberanía popular”.

Link

Michael T. Klare: Romney's extremist energy plan

The Nation

The vague language in Mitt Romney's energy plan doesn't convey its extremely regressive nature, and the candidate is not doing much to publicly clear up that confusion. In his latest piece, Nation defense correspondent Michael T. Klare reveals how Mitt Romney would roll back over 50 years of environmental legislation and push for toxic extraction methods like mountaintop removal. Klare, who is the author of The Race for What's Left: The Global Scramble for the World's Last Resources, spoke with Nation managing editor Roane Carey about the terrifying reality behind Romney's energy plan.

It looks like you don't have Adobe Flash Player installed. Get it now.

Original Page

Gini back in the bottle

The Economist.

MICHAEL JACKSON BROUGHT Santa Marta a moment of fame. In February 1996 the King of Pop landed by helicopter at the top of one of Rio de Janeiro’s most notorious favelas. Politicians tried to stop him, but Mr Jackson had permission from the drug barons who ruled the slum. He danced down the steep paths between shacks clinging precariously to the mountainside, surrounded by a cheering crowd of Rio’s poorest citizens, and belted out his hit single “They don’t care about us”. The music video was played around the world. It trained a spotlight on Rio’s poverty and inequality.

Sixteen years later Santa Marta is once again a showcase, but of a better sort. It was the first favela to be “pacified” under a government plan to wrest control of Rio’s slums from the drug lords. The place was stormed by the army in 2008. It now has a police station, and is peaceful. It is a thriving example of the boom at the bottom of Brazilian society.

Meet Salete Martins, a bubbly 42-year-old, whose family moved to Santa Marta from Brazil’s north-east when she was eight. By day she works as a trainee tour guide, showing visitors around her neighbourhood for a city-financed non-profit group called Rio Top Tours. At night she studies tourism at a local college. At weekends she sells Bahian food from a bustling stall near the favela’s entrance. And in between she flogs a popular line of beauty products. Her monthly income is around 2,000 reais ($985), four times as much as she made selling sandwiches three years ago and more than three times the minimum wage. She plans to launch her own tour-guide company before the end of this year.

Ms Martins’s success is striking, even in Santa Marta. But it mirrors a trend that has swept the whole of Latin America. Poor people’s incomes have surged over the past decade, leading to a big drop in inequality. In most Latin American countries the Gini coefficient in 2010 was lower than in 2000. The region’s average, at 0.5, is down from almost 0.54 a decade ago, and lower than at any time in the past 30 years (see chart 3), though still high relative to other regions. Judging by evidence from Argentina, the only country in Latin America to publish statistics on tax returns of top earners, the richest 1% are still pulling ahead of the rest. But that concentration is more than made up for by the narrowing of gaps further down the income scale.

Link.

Nick Turse: A failed formula for worldwide war

Al Jazeera.

They looked like a gang of geriatric giants. Clad in smart casual attire - dress shirts, sweaters, and jeans - and incongruous blue hospital booties, they strode around "the world", stopping to stroke their chins and ponder this or that potential crisis. Among them was General Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a button-down shirt and jeans, without a medal or a ribbon in sight, his arms crossed, his gaze fixed. He had one foot planted firmly in Russia, the other partly in Kazakhstan, and yet the general hadn't left the friendly confines of Virginia.

Several times this year, Dempsey, the other joint chiefs, and regional war-fighting commanders have assembled at the Marine Corps Base in Quantico to conduct a futuristic war-game-meets-academic-seminar about the needs of the military in 2017. There, a giant map of the world, larger than a basketball court, was laid out so the Pentagon's top brass could shuffle around the planet - provided they wore those scuff-preventing shoe covers - as they thought about "potential US national military vulnerabilities in future conflicts" (so one participant told the New York Times). The sight of those generals with the world underfoot was a fitting image for Washington's military ambitions, its penchant for foreign interventions, and its contempt for (non-US) borders and national sovereignty.

Link.

Autodestrucción sistémica global, insurgencias y utopías

 ALAI. 

Aceleración de la crisis (cambio de discurso). 

El fatalismo global abandona su máscara optimista neoliberal de otros tiempos (que sobrevivió durante el primer tramo de la crisis desatada en 2008) y va asumiendo un pesimismo no menos avasallador. En el pasado los medios de comunicación nos explicaban que nada era posible hacer ante un planeta capitalista cada día más próspero (aunque plagado de crueldades), solo nos quedaba la posibilidad de adaptarnos, una ruidosa masa de expertos avalaban las grandes consignas con argumentos científicos irrefutables (los críticos no podían hacerse oír frente a la avalancha mediática). A eso se le llamó discurso único, aparecía como un formidable instrumento ideológico y prometía acompañarnos durante varios siglos aunque duro unas pocas décadas y se esfumó en menos de un lustro. 

Ahora la reproducción ideológica del sistema mundial de poder empieza a acudir a un nuevo fatalismo profundamente pesimista basado en la afirmación de que la degradación social (desplegada como resultado de “la crisis”) es inevitable y se prolongará durante mucho tiempo. 

Como en el caso anterior los medios de comunicación y su corte de expertos nos explican que nada es posible hacer más que adaptarnos (nuevamente) ante fenómenos universales inevitables. Como cualquier otra civilización, la actual en última instancia controla a sus súbditos persuadiéndolos acerca de la presencia de fuerzas inmensamente superiores a sus pequeñas existencias imponiendo el orden (y el caos) ante las cuales deben inclinarse respetuosamente. El “mercado global”, “Dios” u otra potencia de dimensión oceánica cumplen dicha función y sus sacerdotes, tecnócratas, generales, empresarios o dirigentes políticos no son otra cosa que ejecutores o intérpretes del destino lo que de paso legitima sus lujos y abusos. 

Así es como en Septiembre de 2012 Olivier Blanchard, economista jefe del Fondo Monetario Internacional anunciaba que “la economía mundial necesitará por lo menos diez años para salir de la crisis financiera que comenzó en 2008” (1). Según Blanchard el enfriamiento durable de los cuatro motores de la economía global (Estados Unidos, Japón, China y la Unión Europea) nos obliga a descartar cualquier esperanza en una recuperación general a corto plazo. Aún más duro en agosto del mismo año el Banco Natixis integrante de un grupo que asegura el financiamiento de aproximadamente el 20% de la economía francesa publicaba un informe titulado “La crisis de la zona euro puede durar veinte años” (2). 

Nos encontramos ante un problema que difícilmente puedan resolver las élites dominantes: la cultura moderna es hija del mito del progreso, una y otra vez pudo cautivar a los de abajo con la promesa de un futuro mejor en este mundo y al alcance de la mano, eso la diferencia de experiencias históricas anteriores. Las épocas de penuria son siempre descriptas como provisorias preparatorias de un gran salto hacia tiempos mejores. La reconversión de la cultura dominante en un pesimismo de larga duración aceptado por las mayorías no parece viable, por lo menos es de muy difícil realización exitosa no solo en los países ricos sino también en la periferia sobre todo en las llamadas sociedades emergentes. Solo poblaciones radicalmente degradadas podrían aceptar pasivamente un futuro negro sin salida a la vista, las élites imperialistas golpeadas, desestabilizadas por la decadencia económica, sin proyectos de integración social podrían encontrar en la degradación integral de los de abajo (sus pobres internos y los pueblos periféricos) una riesgosa alternativa posible de supervivencia sistémica. 

Link.

Anti-americanism

Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Japan sees new Chinese activity near islands

Al Jazeera.

Chinese ships have entered waters near a group of disputed islands for the first time in three weeks, prompting a strong protest from Japan, which says China's air force has also sharply increased its operations in the area.

Japan's Coast Guard said the four Chinese surveillance ships were spotted within a 22km zone that Japan considers its territorial waters near one of the disputed islands in the East China Sea early on Thursday morning.

The ships refused to leave, saying the area was Chinese territory, according to Atsushi Takahashi, a spokesman for the Coast Guard's headquarters in Okinawa, which has jurisdiction over the islands.

He said it was the first time Chinese ships had entered the territorial waters since October 3.

Japan's foreign ministry lodged a strong protest with China's ambassador in Tokyo.

"Both sides have a lot at stake in this dispute. On one hand both have to appease their public, but on the other side they have huge trade ties and they cannot afford for the economy to be affected," Al Jazeera's Divya Gopalan reported from Hong Kong.

Link.

Back From the Brink: Iran and America Set for Talks?

Robert Dreysfuss
The Diplomat

A report that Iran has agreed to talk one-on-one with the United States after the November election roiled the race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in its final two weeks, just one day before the two men engage in a 90-minute debate on foreign policy on Monday night.

Since the beginning of 2012, many analysts have argued that talks over Iran’s nuclear program wouldn’t be successful before the election. Indeed reports citing unnamed Western officials have said that Iran’s negotiators have told them as much themselves. That’s because the only plausible deal between the United States and Iran would involve significant concessions by Washington in exchange for Iran’s decision to limit its nuclear program to low-enriched, fuel-grade uranium and to accept much stricter oversight by inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Among those concessions would be allowing Iran to continue enrichment on its own soil and an end to economic sanctions.

Link

China será el mayor socio comercial de América Latina en 2017

Infobae

Crédito foto: AP

El valor de las firmas europeas está hoy por debajo de su cotización normal y su eventual compra constituye una oportunidad para las transnacionales latinoamericanas, dijo Osvaldo Rosales, director de la División de Comercio Internacional e Integración de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (Cepal).  

"Efectivamente los activos europeos están baratos y lo más probable es que siga así por años", insistió el funcionario de la Cepal. Rosales, quien destacó la diversidad del comercio entre la Unión Europea (UE) y América Latina, dijo que la región debe aprovechar esta coyuntura para impulsar una agenda de cooperación bilateral.

Link

Michelle Bachelet: Beyond Equal Rights

Americas Quarterly

Women’s political and economic participation strengthens democracy, equality and the economy. And while women’s empowerment and full participation in society are important goals in themselves, they are also vital for reducing poverty, achieving universal education, improving maternal and child health, and fulfilling other development goals.

Increasing the presence of women in politics not only responds to their rights as citizens; it enriches political discourse, decision-making and inclusiveness, and improves social conditions through the passage of equitable laws and policies.

These are some of the reasons why the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women), is placing special focus this year on promoting women’s economic empowerment and political participation, and on ending violence against women. More than goals in and of themselves, these priorities are particularly important to achieving the sustainable development discussed at the Rio+20 Conference last June.

Link

Europe’s Path to Disunity

Hans-Werner Sinn
Project-Syndicate

MUNICH – The motto of the United States of America is: “E pluribus unum” (Out of many, one). The European Union’s motto is “In varietate concordia,” which is officially translated as “United in diversity.” It is difficult to express the differences between the US and the European model any more clearly than this. The US is a melting pot, whereas Europe is a mosaic of different peoples and cultures that has developed over the course of its long history.

Illustration by Barrie Maguire

That difference raises the question of whether it is worth striving for a United States of Europe – a concept that many refuse to accept, because they do not believe in the possibility of a unified European identity. A single political system like that of the US, they insist, presupposes a common language and a single nationality.

Perhaps the idea of a United States of Europe, the dream of post-war children like me, can never be realized. But I am not so sure. After all, deeper European integration and the creation of a single political system offer solid, practical advantages that do not require a common identity or language. These advantages include the right to move freely across borders, the free movement of goods and services, legal certainty for cross-border economic activities, Europe-wide transportation infrastructure, and, not least, common security arrangements.

Link

Inversión extranjera directa aumenta 8% en la región en el primer semestre de 2012

CEPAL

Las entradas de inversión extranjera directa (IED) hacia 17 países de la región aumentaron  8% durante el primer semestre de 2012 en relación con igual período de 2011, totalizando 94.331 millones de dólares, señaló hoy la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) desde su sede en Santiago, Chile.

Al mismo tiempo, las inversiones de empresas latinoamericanas en el exterior, las denominadas translatinas, registraron un fuerte incremento de 129% en los primeros seis meses del año.

El aumento de los ingresos de IED se explica por la estabilidad y el dinamismo económico en la mayoría de los países y los altos precios de las materias primas, que continúan incentivando la inversión en minería e hidrocarburos, particularmente en América del Sur.

Link

CIA Look to Swamp Correa

http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/

About a month ago I asked a former colleague in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office what Hague saw as the endgame in the Julian Assange asylum standoff, and where the room for negotiation lay. My friend was dismissive – the policy was simply to wait for the Presidential election in Ecuador in February. The United States and allies were confident that Correa will lose, and my friend and I having both been senior diplomats for many years we understood what the United States would be doing to ensure that result. With Correa replaced by a pro-USA President, Assange’s asylum will be withdrawn, the Metropolitan Police invited in to the Embassy of Ecuador to remove him, and Assange sent immediately to Sweden from where he could be extradited to the United States to face charges of espionage and aiding terrorism.

I have been struck by the naivety of those who ask why the United States could not simply request Assange’s extradition from the United Kingdom. The answer is simple – the coalition government. Extradition agreements are government to government international treaties, and the decision on their implementation is ultimately political and governmental – that is why it was Teresa May and not a judge who took the final and very different political decisions on Babar Ahmad and Gary Mackinnon. 

CIA supporters in the UK have argued vociferously that it would be impossible for Sweden to give Assange the assurance he would not be extradited to the United States, with which he would be prepared to return to Sweden to see off the rather pathetic attempted fit-up there. In fact, as extradition agreements are governmental not judicial instruments, it would be perfectly possible for the Swedish government to give that assurance. Those who argue otherwise, like Gavin Essler and Joan Smith here, are not being truthful – I suspect their very vehemence indicates that they know that.

Most Liberal Democrat MPs are happy to endorse the notion that Assange should be returned to Sweden to face sexual accusations. However even the repeatedly humiliated Lib Dem MPs would revolt at the idea that Assange should be sent to face life imprisonment in solitary confinement in the United States for the work of Wikileaks. That is why the United States has held off requesting extradition from the United Kingdom, to avoid the trouble this would cause Cameron. I am not speculating, there have been direct very senior diplomatic exchanges on this point between Washington and London.

There was confidence that the Correa problem would soon pass, but the State Department has since been shocked by the return of Hugo Chavez. Like Correa, senior US diplomats had convinced themselves – and convinced La Clinton – that Chavez was going to lose. The fury at Chavez’s return has led to a diktat that the same mistake must not be made in Ecuador. 

Link.

The Interview: Robert Kaplan

The Diplomat.

In his new book, The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate, Robert Kaplan (Stratfor Global Intelligence) contends that current global conflicts, including wars, political instability, and clashes over religion, can be better understood and even forecasted through close examination of the maps that chart our world. In this Q&A, The National Bureau of Asian Research's Abraham Denmark asks Kaplan how this theory relates to the Asia-Pacific and what challenges geography will present for the United States’ policy toward the region.

For those looking at the Asia-Pacific, what do you think is the most important message of your book?
The most important message about the Asia-Pacific in my book is that China is both big and small at the same time. China is big in that its influence extends all the way into the Russian Far East and Central and Southeast Asia. China is small in the sense that inside China there exist many minorities—Turks, Tibetans, Inner-Mongolians—that are restless. As its economic crisis ramps up, we can expect more ethnic unrest within China.

We should not take the country’s stability for granted. China may have unstable times ahead that could affect everything in the Asia-Pacific region, including disputes in the South China Sea and relations with Japan. The fate of the region hinges on whether China will remain stable.

What challenges will geography present to the international system as it is currently constructed?
The spread of long-range military capabilities and communications technologies is making the world smaller and collapsing distance. Yet this does not mean geography is irrelevant. Quite the opposite, geography is now more precious. And because geography is more precious, it is also less stable. The very finite size of the earth itself is a force for instability. We’re entering not so much a world where there is an East Asia, a South Asia, and a Southeast Asia, but a world where the whole of Eurasia constitutes one organic, interconnected geography.

Link.

Argentina: Moody’s lo hizo de nuevo

Página 12

 

La agencia volvió a calificar como un “default” la pesificación de la deuda de la provincia de Chaco.
Imagen: Reuters.

 

La calificadora de riesgo Moody’s rebajó ayer los bonos provinciales emitidos en dólares a la categoría “especulativo”, comúnmente conocida como “basura”. “Esta acción refleja nuestra opinión sobre los riesgos crecientes que enfrentan los gobiernos subnacionales para acceder a divisas y efectuar el pago de sus obligaciones en moneda extranjera”, aseguró. La agencia estadounidense tomó la decisión luego de que la provincia de Chaco cancelara en pesos al tipo de cambio oficial un bono nominado en dólares por no poder acceder a las divisas en el mercado de cambios. El Banco Central aclaró la semana pasada que no se introdujeron modificaciones en la normativa cambiaria que regula el pago de deudas. “Los deudores locales de emisiones externas tienen acceso al mercado de cambios para el pago de servicios de capital e intereses”, señaló la entidad en un comunicado. La condición de que sea “emisión externa” afecta sólo a Chaco, Formosa y Tucumán, provincias que emitieron deuda en dólares, pero bajo legislación local. Igual Moody’s calificó como “basura” a todos los bonos provinciales en dólares.

La agencia había denominado el lunes como un “default” el pago de deuda en pesos que decidió el gobierno del Chaco, el cual anunció ayer un canje para pesificar toda su deuda emitida en dólares (ver página 7). La calificadora insistió también ayer con que esa decisión constituyó un “default” y rebajó la nota de los bonos. “Esta acción es resultado del reciente incumplimiento de Chaco en sus bonos denominados en dólares estadounidenses”, afirmó. Sin embargo, en lugar de ponerles D a los títulos (incumplimiento) les puso “Caa”. En su manual de procedimiento, Moody’s aclara que “los emisores o emisiones con calificación Caa son de tipo especulativo y muestran una capacidad de pago muy débil”, pero no están en “default”. En su informe de ayer, la agencia no aclara porque evitó la D. El gobierno de Chaco no pagó en dólares, pero tampoco dejó de pagar. Lo hizo en pesos al tipo de cambio oficial. “La provincia no incurre en default de deuda, sino que paga regularmente sus obligaciones, cumpliendo con las normativas del Central”, sostuvo el gobernador Jorge Capitanich.

Link

Richard N Haass: Time to Test Iran

Project-Syndicate

NEW YORK – Most of the debate about how to address Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear-weapons capacity focuses on two options. The first is to rely on deterrence and live with an Iran that has a small nuclear arsenal or the ability to assemble one with little advance notice. The second is to launch a preventive military strike aimed at destroying critical parts of the Iranian program and setting back its progress by an estimated two or more years.

Illustration by Paul Lachine

But now a third option has emerged: negotiating a ceiling on the nuclear program that would not be too low for Iran’s government and not too high for the United States, Israel, and the rest of the world.

In fact, such an option has been around for years – and in several rounds of negotiations. What has changed, however, is the context. And changes in context can be critical; indeed, what happens away from the negotiating table almost always determines the outcome of face-to-face talks.

Link

Samir Amin: Implosion of the European System

Monthly Review

Majority opinion in Europe holds that Europe has all it takes to become an economic and political power comparable to, and consequently independent of, the United States. The simple addition of its component populations with its GDPs makes that seem obvious. As for me, I believe that Europe suffers from three major handicaps that rule out such a comparison.

First of all, the northern part of the American continent (the United States and—what I call its external state—Canada) is endowed with natural resources incomparably greater than the part of Europe to the west of Russia, as is shown by Europe’s dependence on imported energy.

Secondly, Europe is made up of a good number of historically distinct nations whose diversity of political cultures, even though this diversity is not necessarily marked by national chauvinism, has sufficient weight to exclude recognition of a “European people” on the model of the United States’s “American people.” We will return later to this important matter.

Link

Wallerstein: U.S. Foreign Policy and American Public Opinion.

www.iwallerstein.com

As the U.S. elections approach, U.S. foreign policy is gingerly becoming one of the issues. It is no secret that over the past half-century, there has been a certain long-term consistency to U.S. foreign policy. The sharpest internal differences took place when George W. Bush became president and launched a supermacho, deliberately unilateral attempt to restore U.S. dominance in the world by the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Bush and the neo-cons hoped to intimidate everyone around the world by using U.S. military strength to change regimes that were deemed unfriendly by the U.S. government. As seems clear today, the neo-con policy failed in its own objective. Instead of intimidating everyone, the policy transformed a slow decline in U.S. power into a precipitate decline. In 2008, Obama ran on a platform of reversing this policy, and in 2012 he is claiming that he has fulfilled this promise and therefore undid the damage the neo-cons caused.

But did he undo the damage? Could he have undone the damage? I doubt it. But my intent here is not to discuss how successful U.S. foreign policy is or is not at this moment. Rather I wish to discuss what the American people think about it.

The most important element in current U.S. public opinion on U.S. foreign policy is uncertainty and lack of clarity. Recent polls show that for the first time a majority of Americans think that the military interventions Bush undertook in the Middle East were an error. What these people seem to see is that there was a large expenditure of U.S. lives and money for results that seem to them to be negative. 

They perceive the Iraqi government to be closer in sentiment and policy to the Iranian government than to the United States. They perceive the Afghan government to be on very shaky grounds – with an army infiltrated by enough Taliban sympathizers that they can shoot U.S. soldiers with whom they are working. They want U.S. troops to leave by 2014 as promised. But they do not believe that, once these troops leave, there will be a stable government in power, one that is somewhat friendly to the United States.

Link.

Gobierno de Colombia y FARC formalizarán proceso de paz este jueves

teleSUR

El Gobierno colombiano y las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) tienen previsto oficializar las negociaciones de paz este jueves, con la lectura de un comunicado y una rueda de prensa en la pequeña localidad de Hurdal, al norte de Oslo en Noruega, actividades previstas para las 15.00 horas locales (13.00 GMT).

Las delegaciones de ambas partes arribaron el día miércoles a Oslo, y durante horas de la noche sostuvieron un encuentro a puerta cerrada, de cuyos resultados se estima informarán durante el encuentro con la prensa internacional.

Según la agencia AFP, “el ambiente entre las partes es cordial y respetuoso", y “los equipos negociadores se encuentran reunidos desde las ocho de la mañana para tratar aspectos logísticos y el lanzamiento esta tarde del proceso de paz en una localidad en las afueras de Oslo”.

Los llamados “diálogos de paz” tienen como propósito fundamental poner fin al conflicto armado existente en Colombia desde hace cinco décadas, el cual ha causado cientos de miles de muertos.

Esta información fue confirmada por las FARC mediante un comunicado, en el que expresaron que “una vez instalada la mesa, los voceros del Gobierno y de la guerrilla ofrecerán ruedas de prensa por separado”.

Noruega, país que ha participado en una veintena de procesos de reconciliación y de paz en las últimos 20 años, es junto a Cuba garante del tercer diálogo formal entre el Gobierno colombiano y las FARC. Por ello, una vez culminada la etapa de esta semana, ambas delegaciones se trasladarán a La Habana para continuar con el proceso.

Link

China's economy slows but data hints at rebound

BBC.

 

China's economy has slowed for a seventh quarter as problems in Europe and the US hurt demand for its goods.

The annual rate of growth was 7.4% in the third quarter, down from 7.6% in the previous three months. 

However, there were signs that the world's second-biggest economy was now stabilising and rebounding.

That would be good news for China, which is facing a leadership change, and the rest of the world, which has benefited from its recent boom.

"Clearly, concerns over continued slowdown can now be put to rest," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist as Credit Agricole-CIB.

"The last month of the quarter brought acceleration of industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment in year-on-year terms, highlighting the fact that improvement of momentum of the economy was particularly strong in September."

In Hong Kong, the main Hang Seng stock index rose 0.7% on the news, while in Shanghai, shares climbed by 1.2%. 

Link.

A Regional Fix to the Iranian Nuclear Drama

By Tytti Erästö
The diplomat

At different stages of the Iranian nuclear dispute, a window toward resolution has seemed to open up. For example, in 2003 Iran proposed comprehensive negotiations with the Bush administration but the window was quickly slammed shut due to the latter’s unwillingness to break the old tradition of containing Iran. This position also effectively prevented the pursuit of the diplomatic track until most of the UN sanctions resolutions against Iran had been adopted.

Obama’s openness for negotiations created the first opportunity for reaching a compromise deal in 2009. This time, however, the opportunity was lost due to domestic pressures on the Iranian side. The result was an increased determination in the West to continue with the sanctions track—a determination which also prevented the P5+1 from seizing another diplomatic opportunity offered to them by Turkish and Brazilian mediators in 2010. In spring 2012 a dim light of hope again emerged but soon faded away as discussions between Iran and the P5+1 only seemed to confirm the incompatibility of the two sides’ positions. Particularly since the latest round of discussions, there has been a sense of surrender to the interpretation that there simply is no diplomatic.

Link

Oscar Ugarteche: El posimperialismo. Una aproximación

IADE

La noción de imperialismo va unida a la noción de las relaciones bilaterales entre estados nación. La noción de posimperialismo va unida a la relación entre organismos multilaterales y el estado nación. En ambos casos la relación es para permitir la expansión del capital aunque en el segundo se llega a administrar el estado del receptor del capital y se llega a desnaturalizar la noción de democracia.

La gobernabilidad consiste en continuar con los acuerdos multilaterales al margen del gobierno electo. Es decir, hay un reconocimiento de facto de que existe un gobierno mundial que yace en la Organización Mundial del Comercio, el Fondo Monetario Internacional y el Banco Mundial. Allí se definen las políticas y luego se firman los acuerdos con los ejecutores de las políticas que son los estados subordinados. Son todos menos la Unión Europea, el Japón y Estados Unidos. Así aparece nítidamente un plano en el que un grupo de países coordina sus políticas, el G7, y otro plano en el que las políticas son definidas por los organismos multilaterales.

Link

Laura Tyson: Closing America’s Jobs Deficit

Project Syndicate

BERKELEY – The latest data on employment in the United States confirm that the American economy continues to recover from the Great Recession of 2008-2009, despite the slowdown engulfing the other G-20 nations. Indeed, the pace of private-sector job growth has actually been much stronger during this recovery than during the recovery from the 2001 recession, and is comparable to the recovery from the 1990-1991 recession.

Illustration by Paul Lachine

During the last 31 months, private-sector employment has increased by 5.2 million and the unemployment rate has now fallen below 8% for the first time in nearly four years. But the unemployment rate is still more than two percentage points above the long-run value that most economists view as normal when the economy is operating near its potential.

Moreover, the number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or longer) is about 40% of the total – thelowest share since 2009, but still far higher than in the previous recessions since the Great Depression, and about double what it would be in a normal labor market. So the US labor market, while healing, is still far from where it should be.

Link

Informe PISA: Finlandia bate a toda Europa en educación primaria y liceal

La Red 21

Mientras en medio de la crisis los países mediterráneos parecen encaminados a una catástrofe educativa (en España el 30% de los alumnos no terminan Secundaria), en Finlandia, apenas un 8% no acaba el Bachillerato completo.

 

Las claves del sistema finlandés, parecen más sencillas de lo esperado y ahora son puestas como ejemplo posible para revertir la pendiente en que se encuentra el sistema educativo público europeo.

Link

¿Cómo llegan las FARC al proceso de paz?.

Jerponimo Ríos Sierra

Asuntos del Sur

Las FARC fueron constituidas formalmente en la primavera de 1966, bajo la II Conferencia del Bloque Guerrillero del Sur de Colombia y con un grueso de 350 hombres si bien,  en el imaginario guerrillero y más allá de disputas historiográficas, el mito fundacional del ataque a Marquetalia, el 27 de mayo de 1964, representa el punto fundacional de esta guerrilla, tal y como reconocería uno de sus principales ideólogos, Jacobo Arenas. Desde entonces, y a lo largo de estas últimas cinco décadas, el devenir del conflicto ha discurrido por multitud de vaivenes. 

 

De la Marquetalia al fallido proceso del Caguán

 

Hasta inicios de los años ochenta, la influencia del Partido Comunista hizo que las FARC encontraran serias dificultades en engrosar su número, que tras quince años de existencia, apenas llegaba a mil efectivos, con una escasa capacidad de ataque.

Link

 

UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013

The Guardian

A Zimbabwean peasant farmer in a crop of maize destroyed by drought. One expert warns: 'The geopolitics of food is fast overshadowing the geopolitics of oil.' Photograph: Howard Burditt/Reuters

World grain reserves are so dangerously low that severe weather in the United States or other food-exporting countries could trigger a major hunger crisis next year, the United Nations has warned.

Failing harvests in the US, Ukraine and other countries this year have eroded reserves to their lowest level since 1974. The US, which has experienced record heatwaves and droughts in 2012, now holds in reserve a historically low 6.5% of the maize that it expects to consume in the next year, says the UN.

"We've not been producing as much as we are consuming. That is why stocks are being run down. Supplies are now very tight across the world and reserves are at a very low level, leaving no room for unexpected events next year," said Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist with the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). With food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11 years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently.

Link

Hollande se da un festín de Francofonía tras lograr el apoyo de la ONU a una intervención en Malí

Ana Camacho
En Arenas Movedizas

Niñas de Malí en los campamentos de refugiados de su paús en el vecino Níger.

El Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU aprobó ayer por unanimidad una resolución promovida por Francia y Marruecos en apoyo de la intervención de una fuerza militar africana en Malí cuyo objetivo es ayudar al Gobierno de Bamako a “reconquistar” el norte del país. Se trata de un importante avance para la diplomacia francesa que, desde la declaración de independencia de los tuareg del Azawad, el pasado abril, está volcada en una intensa actividad para contrarrestar la partición de su ex colonia. No es, sin embargo, una victoria redonda ya que no da luz verde definitiva a una acción  armada que requerirá el cumplimiento previo de una serie de condiciones de laboriosa ejecución.

“Esta es una primera resolución que será seguida por un plan más detallado en las próximas semanas”, dijo el presidente de turno del Consejo de Seguridad, el embajador de Guatemala, Gert Rosenthal, al explicar la iniciativa. Según dijo, el texto solicita al secretario general de la ONU Ban Ki-moon que provea de inmediato de planificadores militares y de seguridad para que contribuyan al trazado de una hoja de ruta que responda a la solicitud de apoyo que el Gobierno de transición de Malí hizo a la ONU el pasado septiembre. Estos expertos deberán trabajar conjuntamente con las autoridades malienses y los responsables de la Cedeao, (la organización Económica de los Estados de África Occidental) y la Unión Africana, que están dispuestos a suministrar una fuerza de 2.000 hombres.

Link 

Why the euro crisis threatens the EU single market

European Council of Foreign Relations

Twenty years after the European single market was created, the euro crisis is posing a threat to one of the main achievements of European integration - the single market. Even the latest round of proposed improvements that the European Commission has announced will not be sufficient to mitigate this threat.

In a new ECFR paper Sebastian Dullien sets out the three most likely scenarios for how the euro crisis is likely to develop, and explains who each would adversely affect the single market and harm cross-border business and activity within the EU.  

Link

Entrevista inédita a Michel Foucault: “los filósofos no nacen, son”

Sociología Contemporánea

El próximo mes de octubre el sello editorial Siglo XXI Argentina tiene previsto la publicación de El poder, una bestia magnífica. Sobre el poder, la prisión y la vida, un volumen que reúne una serie de entrevistas y artículos en los que Michel Foucault ahonda sobre temas ya conocidos de su proyecto intelectual. 

Mientras tanto, el diario argentino La Nación nos adelante una por demás interesante entrevista inédita al castellano, concedida al fotógrafo estadounidense Jerry Bauer en 1978, en la que el filósofo francés habla acerca de cuestiones como la locura, el poder y la sexualidad.

Finalmente comentamos que para abril de 2013 Siglo XXI tiene planeado publicar dos libros más de Michel Foucault: el primero, bajo el titulo ¿Qué es usted, profesor Foucault?, reunirá de igual forma textos inéditos al castellano centrándose en el método de la arquitectura foucaultiana; el segundo, La inquietud por la verdad, agrupará textos relativos a la sexualidad y el sujeto.

Link

U.S.-China Trade Relations: Integrating Common Interests through Comprehensive Negotiations

Herbert Hill
Diplimatic Courier

In December of 1995, an American delegation under USTR Mickey Kantor travelled to the People’s Republic of China to continue negotiations with regard to the lack of enforcement of American intellectual property rights in China. While staying in Beijing, one of the U.S. negotiators visited a Chinese store to buy some shampoo. After purchasing what he thought was a bottle of Procter & Gamble shampoo, he later discovered that the bottle contained a high concentration of lye and was not a Procter & Gamble product at all, but simply a bottle with a pirated label.

To say in 1993 that manufacturers and markets in the People’s Republic of China were infringing intellectual property rights would be an understatement. The development of increasingly sophisticated counterfeiting techniques combined with the growth of the Chinese economy and international trade “fueled piracy on a scale never before witnessed.” Despite previous efforts going as far back as 1980 by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to negotiate an agreement on IP rights, blatant violations continued in the PRC not because the Chinese statute books lacked the laws to protect such rights, but rather because the government was unwilling to carry out any enforcement of those laws.

Link

Eric Hobsbawm: A Life in History

BBC World

Middle East tensions raise energy prices

Sam Fletcher
Oil and Gas Journal

Energy prices escalated Oct. 9 with crude oil up 3.4% in the New York market, approaching Oct. 1 levels, as increased tensions in the Middle East—primarily between Turkey and Syria—overshadowed the slowdown in economic growth.

“Natural gas futures also rose 1.9% as some investors are anticipating a bullish injection [into US underground storage] after a recent cool spell,” said analysts in the Houston office of Raymond James & Associates Inc. “The Oil Service Index and SIG Oil Exploration & Production Index followed commodities higher, ending the day up 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively.” Crude and gas prices were still climbing in early trading Oct. 10.

“Reformulated stock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) and heating oil also posted impressive gains,” said Marc Ground at Standard New York Securities Inc., the Standard Bank Group. “Clearly participants remain preoccupied with the Turkish-Syria conflict, forgetting recent concerns over the possible glut of US crude oil inventories.”

Link

Russia Quits Nunn-Lugar Program

Ria Novosti

The US proposals on extending a decades-old bilateral program aimed at dismantling weapons of mass destruction are out of synch with Moscow’s concept of cooperation in that area, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday.

“We have received an American proposal on extending the 1992 Agreement, which is due to expire in June 2013,” ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said, referring to the Nunn-Lugar Agreement.

Link

España firma con EEUU la participación de Rota como base del escudo antimisiles de la OTAN

La Razón

Rota acogerá así, junto a Polonia, Rumanía, Holanda y Turquía, las instalaciones del sistema de interceptación de misiles AEGIS de la OTAN, un "escudo" para proteger a los miembros de la Alianza de eventuales ataques, que aspira a estar operativo en 2018, y que ha suscitado las críticas de Rusia.

El sistema, que todavía está en fase de desarrollo y será operativo para misiles de corto y medio alcance con una proyección de hasta 3.000 kilómetros, consiste en un complejo entramado de comunicaciones, radares y cohetes que se encargará de detectar y destruir en vuelo cualquier misil o conjunto de misiles lanzados contra la OTAN. Se prevé que los primeros dos destructores estadounidenses llegarán a la base gaditana en 2014 y los otros dos en 2015.

"Estoy muy agradecido a España y a mi homólogo en el ministerio de Defensa por su disposición para dar la oportunidad de desplegar este sistema de defensa", dijo el jefe del Pentágono durante una conferencia de prensa celebrada en el cuartel general de la OTAN en Bruselas. A su juicio, este dispositivo no sólo refuerza la defensa antimisiles en Europa, sino que también refuerza la relación dentro de la OTAN. Permitirá, además, "defender mejor no sólo esta zona sinopromover la paz en el mundo", anunció.

Link

Irak compra armas a Rusia por valor de 3.200 millones de euros en 2012

El País

Rusia suministrará equipo militar a Irak por valor de más 4.200 millones de dólares (3.235 millones de euros) durante la segunda mitad de este año, según contratos firmados antes del otoño, que han sido confirmados con ocasión de la visita que inició el martes a Moscú del jefe de Gobierno iraquí, el chií Nuri al Maliki.

La agencia Interfax cita un informe preparado por servicio de prensa del Gobierno ruso, según el cual expertos militares iraquíes, dirigidos por el ministro de Defensa en funciones, Saadum al Dulaimi, realizaron varias visitas a Rusia en abril, julio y agosto de 2012. Las delegaciones examinaron muestras de armamento moderno ruso, debatieron propuestas técnicas y comerciales para el suministro de mercancías militares con representantes de Rosoboronexport, la empresa estatal de venta de armas, y firmaron un paquete de contratos por más de 4.200 millones de dólares, señala el informe citado por Interfax.

Link

America Cannot ‘Lead From Behind’ in Asia

The Diplomat

In early September, as Bill Clinton wowed the crowd at the Democratic convention in Charlotte, his wife was facing a smaller and less appreciative audience in Beijing.  The Secretary of State had come to China with soothing words and appeals for cooperation.  Seeking to downplay talk of an escalating Sino-American rivalry, she told a conference of smaller island nations where she stopped en route that “…after all, the Pacific is big enough for all of us.” 

Her hosts were not convinced.  Washington should “stop its role as a sneaky troublemaker” stirring up tensions between China and its neighbors, advised an article in the government-run news agency.  While her official welcome was somewhat more cordial, the Secretary of State achieved no discernable progress on a range of outstanding issues, including the civil war in Syria and Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Link

Canciller Nicolás Maduro será el nuevo Vicepresidente de Venezuela

Telesur TV

El presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, anunció este miércoles que Nicolás Maduro, quien hasta ahora se desempeñaba como Canciller de la República, pasará a ser Vicepresidente de ese país suramericano.

Durante el acto en que fue proclamado por el Poder Electoral como candidato ganador de los comicios presidenciales del pasado 7 de octubre, Chávez anunció el cambio en en ese cargo que ocupaba Elías Jaua, quien se disputará la gobernación del estado Miranda (norte) con el excandidato presidencial, Henrique Capriles.

"Hasta esta semana tenemos a Elias (Jaua) como vicepresidente ¡ Gracias Elias! has sido un excelente vicepresidente", afirmó ante miembros de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivarianas (FANB) y del Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE).

En medio de aplausos calificó a Jaua como "noble, trabajador, honesto, entregado y humilde". "¡Gracias Elías por tanto!", le exclamó afirmando que cumplió "una labor memorable".

Link

The geopolitical impact of the Nile

STRATFOR

Think Again: The BRICS

Foreign Policy.

"The BRICS Are in a Class by Themselves."

Yes and no. There is no question that the BRICS -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, and the group's newest member, South Africa -- are big. They matter. In terms of population, landmass, and economic size, their pure dimensions are impressive and clearly stand out from those of other countries. Together, they make up 40 percent of the world's population, 25 percent of the world's landmass, and about 20 percent of global GDP. They already control some 43 percent of global foreign exchange reserves, and their share keeps rising.

Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs put the spotlight on the rise of the original four of these big new economic powers when he gave them the name BRICs in 2001, and their collective growth began to soar. But in reality their economic success had been a long time coming. Twenty years before that, when I was at the World Bank's International Finance Corp. (IFC), we were identifying the opportunity to rebrand these countries, which, despite their enormous economic potential, were still lumped together with the world's perennial basket cases as "underdeveloped countries" stuck in the "Third World." At the time, Third World stock markets were simply off the radar screen of most international investors, even though they were starting to grow; I gave them the name "emerging markets." Local investors were already quite active in Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Mexico, and elsewhere, as homegrown companies became larger and more export-competitive while market regulation became more sophisticated. But until the IFC built its Emerging Markets Database and index in 1981, there was no way to measure stock performance for a representative group of these markets, a disabling disadvantage when stacked against other international indices, which were skewed in favor of developed countries such as Germany, Japan, and Australia. This brand-new research on markets and companies provided investors with the confidence to launch diversified emerging-market funds following the success of individual country funds in markets such as Mexico and South Korea. 

Link

The Chávez victory will be felt far beyond Latin America

The Guardian.

The transformation of Latin America is one of the decisive changes reshaping the global order. The tide of progressive change that has swept the region over the last decade has brought a string of elected socialist and social-democratic governments to office that have redistributed wealth and power, rejected western neoliberal orthodoxy, and challenged imperial domination. In the process they have started to build the first truly independent South America for 500 years and demonstrated to the rest of the world that there are, after all, economic and social alternatives in the 21st century.

Central to that process has been Hugo Chávez and his Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela. It is Venezuela, sitting on the world's largest proven oil reserves, that has spearheaded the movement of radical change across Latin America and underwritten the regional integration that is key to its renaissance. By doing so, the endlessly vilified Venezuelan leader has earned the enmity of the US and its camp followers, as well as the social and racial elites that have called the shots in Latin America for hundreds of years.

So Chávez's remarkable presidential election victory on Sunday – in which he won 55% of the vote on an 81% turnout after 14 years in power – has a significance far beyond Venezuela, or even Latin America. The stakes were enormous: if his oligarch challenger Henrique Capriles had won, not only would the revolution have come to a juddering halt, triggering privatisations and the axing of social programmes. So would its essential support for continental integration, mass sponsorship of Cuban doctors across the hemisphere – as well as Chávez's plans to reduce oil dependence on the US market.

Link

La Corte Suprema de EE.UU. rechaza el pedido de Chevron de bloquear el fallo ecuatoriano

The Wall Street Journal.

WASHINGTON—La Corte Suprema de Estados Unidos se negó el martes a considerar el intento de Chevron Corp.de bloquear un fallo medioambiental de Ecuador en contra de la petrolera estadounidense por US$19.000 millones. 

Chevron intentaba impedir que un grupo de demandantes ecuatorianos obtuviera el dinero en EE.UU. o a través de sus compañías afiliadas en el extranjero. Los demandantes a su vez respondieron que el intento de la compañía de bloquear el cumplimiento del fallo en cualquier parte del mundo era una medida radical y sin precedentes. 

Un tribunal ecuatoriano emitió en 2011 una resolución que responsabilizó la exploración petrolera de Texaco Inc. por la contaminación en la región amazónica del país andino. Chevron adquirió Texaco en 2001, años después de que la empresa cesara sus operaciones de perforación petrolera en Ecuador. 

Link.

Panamá admite instalación de nuevas bases militares al servicio de EEUU

Libre Red

El ministro panameño de Seguridad, José Raúl Mulino, confirmó la construcción y señaló que forma parte de las cuatro bases aeronavales nuevas, que según la autoridad, no estaban incluidas en el plan original de ampliación de esa rama.

Las otras tres bases se construirán en Chinina y en la comarca Nganbe Buglé.

Anteriormente, Mulino había dicho que lo que se construía en la isla Flamenco era un dique seco “para subir y bajar lanchas patrulleras”.

Según el titular de la cartera de Seguridad panameña, la nueva base militar servirá de estación sede del Servicio Nacional Aeronaval en el área del Pacífico.

“Con esto lo que pretendemos es evitar, como en efecto se está haciendo, que el flujo de droga entre a Panamá”, argumentó Mulino.

Panamá tiene en total 18 bases aeronavales en las que el Ejecutivo ha invertido casi 135 millones de dólares.

Link

Barry Eichengreen: The Renminbi Challenge

Project-Syndicate

SEOUL – Last month, China unveiled its first aircraft carrier, and is gearing up to challenge the United States in the South China Sea. By initiating a plan to internationalize its currency, China is similarly seeking to challenge the dollar on the international stage.

Illustration by Paul Lachine

In carving out a global role for the renminbi, Chinese policymakers are proceeding deliberately. In the words of the venerable Chinese proverb, they are “feeling for the stones while crossing the river.”

The authorities’ first step was to authorize Chinese companies to use the renminbi in cross-border trade settlements. As foreign firms exporting to China accepted payment in renminbi, the currency piled up in their bank accounts in Hong Kong. That led to the next step: Foreign firms wishing to invest in China were allowed to tap those deposits by issuing renminbi-denominated bonds, and eligible offshore financial institutions were permitted to invest renminbi funds in China’s interbank bond market.

Link

Michael T Klare: The New “Golden Age of Oil” That Wasn’t

Tom Dispatch

Last winter, fossil-fuel enthusiasts began trumpeting the dawn of a new “golden age of oil” that would kick-start the American economy, generate millions of new jobs, and free this country from its dependence on imported petroleum.  Ed Morse, head commodities analyst at Citibank, was typical.  In the Wall Street Journal he crowed, “The United States has become the fastest-growing oil and gas producer in the world, and is likely to remain so for the rest of this decade and into the 2020s.”

Once this surge in U.S. energy production was linked to a predicted boom in energy from Canada’s tar sands reserves, the results seemed obvious and uncontestable.  “North America,” he announced, “is becoming the new Middle East.”  Many other analysts have elaborated similarly on this rosy scenario, which now provides the foundation for Mitt Romney’s plan to achieve “energy independence” by 2020.

Link

FMI: confianza financiera global es muy frágil

América Economía

Tokio. El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) instó a las autoridades europeas a profundizar los lazos financieros y fiscales dentro de la zona euro con cierta urgencia, para restablecer la decaída confianza en el sistema financiero global.

En su revisión semestral sobre la salud económica mundial, el FMI aseguró que la crisis de deuda del área euro es una amenaza clave y que los riesgos para la estabilidad financiera han subido en los últimos seis meses, dejando "muy frágil" la confianza.

El complicado progreso de la zona euro implica que los bancos europeos probablemente rebajen US$2,8 billones en activos en dos años para reducir su exposición de riesgo, un incremento de US$200.000 millones frente a estimaciones de hace seis meses, señaló el FMI.

Eso podría reducir la oferta de crédito en la periferia en un 9% para finales del 2013, presionando el crecimiento económico.

"Pese a muchas medidas importantes ya tomadas por las autoridades, esta agenda sigue críticamente incompleta, exponiendo al área euro a una espiral descendente de fuga de capitales, temores de desintegración y un declive económico", aseguró el organismo en un reporte divulgado el miércoles.

Link

Kissinger offers wise words on China

The Washington Post

When Henry Kissinger talks about China, Mitt Romney and President Obama ought to listen — and so should the rest of us.

Last Wednesday during a panel at the Woodrow Wilson Center, the 89-year-old former secretary of state used his unique 40-year-experience with Chinese leaders to give a tutorial on how to handle the sensitive relations between Beijing and Washington.

Kissinger’s presentation went far beyond his criticism of Obama’s and Romney’s attacks on China’s economic practices.

He gave a perceptive short history of Chinese leadership since the Communist revolution, an evolution that few Americans appreciate.

Link

Global economic recovery weakening, says IMF

BBC News.

The global economic recovery is weakening as government policies have failed to restore confidence, the International Monetary Fund has said.

It added that the risk of further deterioration in the economic outlook was "considerable" and had increased.

The IMF downgraded its estimate for global growth in 2013 to 3.6% from the 3.9% it forecast in July.

One of the biggest downgrades was to the UK economy, which the IMF expects to shrink by 0.4% this year.

This compares with its forecast of 0.2% growth in July. Next year, the UK economy should grow by 1.1%, the IMF said, down from its previous forecast of 1.4%.

In response to the downgrade, the UK Treasury highlighted the fact that the IMF had "repeated its advice that the first line of defence against [slowing growth] should be to allow the automatic stabilisers to operate, monetary policy easing and measures to ease the flow of credit - all of which the UK is doing". 

The fund's forecast for global growth this year has been lowered to 3.3% from 3.5%.

Link.

Link al WEO FMI (Oct. 2012).

Ecuador’s Military and Why Correa Will Be Reelected (Once)

Council on Foreign Relations.

This is a guest post by Gabriel Aguilera, an Assistant Professor of International Security Studies at the Air War College. The views expressed here belong solely to the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, or Air War College.

During a recent trip to Ecuador I learned more about President Rafael Correa; why he is popular and why he will most likely be reelected. Though it’s easy to caricature him as a Chavista populist, it was difficult to find serious and fair-minded voices in Ecuador that would say he is anything other than extremely shrewd, sane, pragmatic, and predictably unpredictable. In contrast to Hugo Chavez, he is making good use of high oil prices by fixing roads and infrastructure, subsiding energy, improving the delivery of basic services, raising educational standards, and providing money transfers to the nation’s poorest citizens. To be sure, this government is nationalistic, interventionist, and heavy-handed, and Correa is no conventional democrat, as his attack on the press so eloquently demonstrated.

There is, however, a method to President Correa’s heavy-handed tactics. They are arguably necessary in a country where few institutions work and vested interests, including foreign ones, regularly make use of raw power via marches, manipulation of the media, and corruption. Weak chief executives of any stripe would not survive in Ecuador. In fact, they haven’t. U.S. officials are fretful of Correa who consistently resists closer ties with Washington. And in all fairness, it is easy to understand his mistrust given that the United States has demonstrated a willingness to stir up trouble for leftist governments in the region, both historically and in recent times.

Link

Wallerstein: The Korean Peninsula: The Future of a Geopolitical Nexus

www.iwallerstein.com

Korea has returned to the world stage as a crucial geopolitical nexus in the coming decade. It will affect in important ways the future of China, Japan, the United States, and perhaps Russia as well. Yet, paradoxically, its future depends primarily on itself. 

Korea is one of that rare breed – a country with a very long history as a political and cultural entity, with varying degrees of unity as a single kingdom. In modern times, it was an independent state until Japan first made it a protectorate in 1905 and then annexed it in 1910. Japan’s defeat in the Second World War ended her rule in Korea. In the very last days of the war, American and Russian troops entered Korea, meeting at the 38th Parallel. Two states came into existence, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea) and the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea).

Link.

El Viejo Continente despliega las alas

Raúl Zibechi/ALAI

Luego de casi tres años de desestabilizadora crisis económica, que puso a la Unión Europea contra las cuerdas, se empiezan a dar los primeros pasos para profundizar la unidad, crear mecanismos de gobernabilidad y se comienza a debatir la posibilidad de crear un ejército europeo. Hasta el momento todos ellos eran temas tabú.

 

“Vuestro papel es hacer realidad el sueño europeo. Viva la amistad franco-alemana”, dijo François Hollande en alemán. “Viva la juventud franco-alemana. Viva la juventud europea”, exclamó Angela Merkel en francés. Al expresarse cada uno en el idioma del otro, los dos dirigentes buscaban reafirmar la vocación europeísta que los anima en el mismo escenario donde Charles de Gaulle se dirigió a miles de jóvenes alemanes el 9 de setiembre de 1952, la pequeña ciudad de alemana de Ludwigsburg.

 

Era la primera visita de un presidente francés a la Alemania recién derrotada en la II Guerra Mundial, y su discurso en alemán entusiasmó a los jóvenes. Justo 60 años después, los principales dirigentes de los dos más importantes países de Europa continental quisieron mostrar que los sigue inspirando idéntica voluntad de caminar juntos, dejando de lado diferencias y rencores, para seguir edificando una poderosa Unión Europea.

 

Link

Robert Cox: The 'Decline of the West' Revisited: Future World Order and a Dialogue of Civilizations

Chávez destaca que en Venezuela “hoy ganó América Latina”

Telesur TV

El candidato socialista venezolano, Hugo Chávez Frías, destacó este domingo que su triunfo en las elecciones presidenciales de este domingo no sólo es una victoria para Venezuela, sino también para toda América Latina.

“Hace rato estaba conversando con la presidenta argentina, Cristina Fernández, quien estaba muy emocionada. Le mandó un abrazo a toda Venezuela de parte del pueblo argentino”, manifestó.

En ese sentido, envió “un saludo a la patria de (Juan Domingo) Perón, del Che Guevara, de Nestor Kirchner”, porque “esta victoria es también para la patria argentina. Hoy ganó América Latina”.

Resaltó además que ha recibido numerosos mensajes de felicitación, entre ellos una carta de parte del presidente cubano Raúl Castro, y también del líder de la Revolución cubana, Fidel Castro.

Link

Pemex descubre un nuevo depósito de crudo en el Golfo

WSJ Americas

CIUDAD DE MÉXICO--La petrolera estatal Petróleos Mexicanos, o Pemex, descubrió un segundo depósito significativo de petróleo en las aguas profundas del Golfo de México, dijo el viernes el presidente Felipe Calderón. 

Con el nuevo depósito "Supremo", Pemex prevé registrar nuevas reservas de petróleo de hasta 125 millones de barriles, en base a la medida más generalizada de la industria de reservas "probadas, probables y posibles", o 3P, dijo Calderón en conferencia de prensa. 

El depósito de exploración Supremo se encuentra 250 kilómetros al este del puerto de Matamoros en el Golfo y 40 kilómetros al sur de la frontera marítima con Estados Unidos, añadió Calderón. 

Link

Scenarios on the future of the International Monetary System

World Economic Forum