Council on Foreign Relations.
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant
political unrest and violence that lead to the further curtailment of
democracy in the country. Presidential elections are scheduled to take
place on October 7, 2012. President Hugo Chavez is in the midst of a
tough reelection campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski—the young
and energetic governor of the state of Miranda—who enjoys multiparty
support and appears to have a better chance of defeating the incumbent
than earlier challengers.
Over the course of the past year, Chavez and several of his most
senior associates have asserted that there will be instability and
violence if he is not reelected. At the same time, Chavez is battling
cancer, but he has shared little information with the public about the
state of his health beyond the fact that he has twice been treated for
the disease since spring 2011. Speculation about Chavez's health
problems has generated considerable uncertainty among his supporters,
especially since he has not anointed a successor. Should Chavez appear
to be losing the election, die suddenly, or withdraw from public life
for health reasons, tensions are likely to rise in Venezuela, especially
if the public suspects that Chavez has used extra-constitutional means
to preclude or invalidate an opposition victory in order to sustain his
regime's hold on power. Protests over such actions, which could turn
violent, may in turn lead to the imposition of martial law and the
further curtailment of democratic rights in Venezuela. This would almost
certainly trigger a major political crisis in the Western Hemisphere
that pits countries seeking to restore democracy and the rule of law in
Venezuela—including the United States—against those who support Chavez
and the principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of other
states. Longstanding U.S. efforts to promote good governance in Latin
America as well as cooperation on a range of political, economic, and
security challenges in the region would be threatened as a consequence.
Accordingly, the United States should seek free and fair elections in
Venezuela. If Chavez or a replacement candidate is defeated, it should
offer to help promote an orderly, peaceful transition. If Chavez is
reelected in a process judged acceptably free and fair, the United
States should seek to reset the bilateral relationship with an eye
toward the eventual renewal of high-level communication on areas of
mutual interest. If the election results appear fraudulent or apparently
legitimate results are nullified, the United States should encourage
international pressure to restore democracy and suspend bilateral
business as usual until a legitimate government is restored.
