El impedimento imperial de China

Michael T Klare
Rebelion/Znet

Los líderes chinos siempre han afirmado que su país también está en vías de desarrollo en su interrelación con el sur y que China jamás empleará el mismo trato injusto y expoliador de las anteriores potencias imperialistas. “China es el mayor país en vías de desarrollo del mundo y África es el continente con el mayor número de países en vías de desarrollo”, declaró el presidente chino Hu Jintao el 19 de julio en el Foro de Cooperación China-África celebrado en Pekín. El pueblo chino y los pueblos africanos han tenido siempre un trato de igualdad entre ellos, con sinceridad y amistad, se prestan apoyo mutuo y juntos tratan de conseguir también su desarrollo. 

Resulta muy fácil calificar tales afirmaciones como simple lenguaje diplomático. Pero los chinos son plenamente conscientes de las innumerables humillaciones sufridas por ellos mismos a manos de las potencias imperialistas europeas y de Japón. Aún así, sus líderes actuales se encuentran en una disyuntiva: para mantener altas tasas de crecimiento económico en su país –su prioridad número uno– necesitan cantidades de petróleo cada vez mayores, además de otras materias primas también de proveedores extranjeros. Y para conseguir ininterrumpidamente el suministros de estos recursos, se están implicando en una relación patrón-cliente con los gobiernos de los países proveedores (muchos de ellos corruptos y antidemocráticos), del mismo tipo de las que han mantenido las mayores potencias occidentales. Algunos países exportadores con grandes reservas de crudo, cobre y otras valiosas materias primas caen presas de la “maldición de los recursos”, bajo la cual sufren el aumento de la corrupción y apropiación de bienes públicos, la opresión de regímenes autoritarios sostenidos por fuerzas de seguridad mercenarias bien remuneradas. Y frecuentemente, los principales países importadores caen en “la maldición de la inversión en recursos”, bajo la cual se convierten en cómplices de esos mismos regímenes. Cuanto mayor sea la dependencia que tengan los países importadores de materias primas procedentes de países bajo ese tipo de regímenes, más fuertes serán las medidas que tomen para asegurarse la supervivencia.

Link

China calls for more cooperation among BRICS countries

Global Times

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi on Wednesday called on BRICS countries to seize opportunities to increase the level of cooperation among them.

The statement came as Yang attended a meeting of foreign ministers of BRICS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, on the sidelines of the 67th session of the UN General Assembly.

Yang said that the BRICS countries have strengthened communication and coordination on major regional and international issues, boosted pragmatic cooperation in all areas, increased their influence and expanded common interests during the past year.

He called on the five countries to catch chances to push their cooperation to a new level.

Link

Global implications of the US Oil and Gas renaissance

Rice University
James A. Baker III Institute for public policy

Maria van der Hoeven presents recommendations from the International Energy Agency for the responsible regulation of unconventional gas drilling and light-tight oil production.

Jefe de ONUDI: "El Gobierno cada vez tiene un rol más claro en el desarrollo industrial"

Andes

Víctor Hinjosa, jefe para América Latina y El Caribe de la ONUDI. Foto: Micaela Ayala /Andes

 

Quito, 21 sep (Andes).- Del 24 al 27 de septiembre, Ecuador será el anfitrión de la “Semana de Eficiencia de Recursos en Ecuador”,  que cumple con la agenda de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo Industrial (ONUDI) en conjunto con el Ministerio de Industrias del Ecuador.

A la cita acuden alrededor de 20 países latinoamericanos, representados por sus ministros de Ambiente o Industrias, quienes tratarán las políticas industriales para el crecimiento, basado en el manejo eficiente de recursos (energía y desechos), así como la eficiencia en el uso de los recursos y producción más limpia para una industria verde.

Link con video

Uruguay: Diputados aprobaron despenalización del aborto y ahora pasa a senadores

Telam

En una sesión de más de 13 horas, los diputados uruguayos aprobaron, por 50 votos a favor y 49 en contra, el proyecto de despenalización del aborto hasta las 12 semanas de gestación del feto. Ahora resta que la mayoría oficialista en el Senado ratifique el proyecto para que la iniciativa sea convertida en ley.

La propuesta original, que había aprobado el Senado en diciembre pasado, establecía la “legalización” del aborto dentro de las primeras doce semanas de gestación y catorce en casos de violación, y dejaba la decisión en manos de las mujeres sin ningún tipo de intermediarios.

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Ecuador rechaza documental “El Precio del Banano”

Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores - Ecuador.

Ecuador rechaza frontalmente el documental “El Precio del Banano” (Der Preis der Bananen), difundido el 27 de agosto, a través del canal alemán NDR, por contener información que intenta desprestigiar al país, en su condición de primer exportador mundial de banano, e ignora las medidas introducidas en los últimos años, tanto por el sector público y privado, para asegurar a los consumidores finales la calidad e inocuidad de su producto, a través de la adopción y ejecución de estrictos estándares en materia ambiental, laboral y social. 

El objetivo de la política agrícola y comercial  de Ecuador es la promoción de las exportaciones ambientalmente responsables, con preferencia de aquellas que generan mayor empleo y valor agregado, señalado en la Constitución de República (sección séptima Art.306). En este sentido, el país está comprometido con fortalecer la trazabilidad de la cadena productiva para el sector bananero, que ratifique su liderazgo en el mercado, reduzca los impactos de la actividad en el ambiente y garantice el bienestar de la población vinculada con su producción, distribución y consumo de la fruta. 

La actividad bananera es vital para cerca del 20% de la población ecuatoriana, siendo la principal fuente de trabajo para 9 de las 24 provincias, por lo que, al asegurar que en el país se irrespetan las normas referentes al manejo de agroquímicos y sembrar dudas respecto a una supuesta existencia de componentes tóxicos en los bananos, conspira contra estos puestos de trabajo y desconoce premeditadamente las acciones dispuestas por el Gobierno del Presidente Rafael Correa para normar a las actividades productivas. 

Link.

Link al documental (Alemán).

The Afghan Surge Is Over

Foreign Policy.

The U.S. troop surge in Afghanistan ended last week. You'd be forgiven if you didn't notice. There was no proclamation of success from the White House, no fanfare at the Pentagon, no public expression of gratitude from Afghan President Hamid Karzai. It fell to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who was traveling in New Zealand, to announce that the last of the 33,000 surge troops, dispatched by President Obama in late 2009 at the behest of his military commanders, had left Afghanistan. 

In stating that U.S. troop levels had dropped to 68,000, Panetta told reporters traveling with him that "this is an opportunity to recognize that the surge did accomplish its objectives." A few days earlier, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, stated that the surge was "an effort that was worth the cost." 

Are they right? In my new book, Little America: The War Within the War for Afghanistan, I explore what really happened over there -- and in Washington -- after Obama decided to surge. The real story of the surge cannot be reduced down to a soundbite. It exacted a significant cost on the United States -- in lives, limbs, and dollars. Sure, the surge did have some positive impacts: The Taliban were pushed out of large stretches of southern Afghanistan, the influx of U.S. resources accelerated the development of the Afghan security forces, and the billions that were poured into the country in the name of reconstruction did provide short-term employment to thousands of young men. But did the surge really achieve its objectives? And were the gains worth the cost? 

Link.

Ecuador le ofrece a China una ruta alternativa al Canal de Panamá

America Economia.

El ministro coordinador de Producción, Empleo y Competitividad de Ecuador, Santiago León, se reunió con el titular de Comercio de China, Chen Deming, a quien presentó proyectos de inversión para mejorar el transporte entre el gigante asiático y Latinoamérica.

En la reunión en Pekín, León mencionó planes como el "Multimodal Manta-Manaos", que permitiría a través del puerto ecuatoriano de Manta unir, por carretera y navegación fluvial, a China con la cuenca amazónica, reporta el periódico Panamá América.

Se trata de "una ruta alternativa al tradicional Canal de Panamá, más rápida y barata", señaló a EFE el ministro ecuatoriano, quien también trató con Chen y otros líderes y empresarios chinos la posibilidad de mejorar los enlaces aéreos entre China y América del Sur, por el bien del comercio, los negocios y el turismo.

El ministro ecuatoriano resaltó que Ecuador y China han estrechado en los últimos años sus relaciones, y prueba de ello es, por ejemplo, que el principal proyecto hidroeléctrico ecuatoriano, Coca Codo Sinclair, se está construyendocon inversión china.

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De "Made in China" a "Made in Germany"

DW

Mientras los productores alemanes se instalan en China para abaratar sus costos, cada vez más inversores chinos llegan a Alemania para comercializar sus productos y hasta para producirlos. ¿Qué los atrae?

Nadie arriesga millones de euros en vano, a 8.000 kilómetros de casa y confrontado con una cultura totalmente extraña. Los empresarios chinos presentes en el “Foro de Negocios e Inversores China 2012”, recientemente celebrado en Colonia, tienen su motivación clara: “la tecnología”, el signo distintivo de la marca “Made in Germany”.

“Es una muy buena marca”, dice Jiang Xiangyang, vicegerente general de Sany Heavy Industry. “No sólo suena bien, sino que se asocia con verdaderos valores: investigación y desarrollo de primera clase, además de excelente atención al cliente”, algo de lo que carece actualmente la marca “Made in China”, explica Jian a DW.

Link

The Folly of Energy Independence

Gal Luft and Anne Korin
The American Interest


 

The United States stands on the cusp of a global strategic advantage of huge significance. It is now within our grasp to cut the Gordian knot of energy policy, transforming our economic prospects in a fairly short period. Seizing this advantage does not require or depend on an esoteric technological breakthrough. It does not require allied assistance. It does not require a great deal of citizen sacrifice, discipline or patience. It does not require new taxes or convoluted cap-and-trade schemes. It merely requires that the Administration and the U.S. Congress get their collective head straight for once about a policy area in which politically ecumenical futility has been the norm for nearly forty years.

It has been an article of faith at least since the Nixon Administration that, in order to strengthen its energy security and, through that, its international position generally, the United States should reduce its dependence on imported oil, particularly from the Middle East. The only significant difference between Republicans and Democrats on this point has been their choice of methods: Republicans have generally preferred supply-side solutions (“Drill, baby, drill!”), while Democrats have generally preferred demand-side responses such as greater conservation and efficiency, and higher energy taxes to encourage both. Withal, imports grew by leaps and bounds both in relative and absolute terms from 36 percent of consumption in 1973 to 60 percent in 2005.

Link

El TPP: un proyecto neoliberal a ultranza

Sally Burch
ALAI

El 6 de septiembre de este año inició la 14ª ronda de negociaciones de la Asociación Transpacífico (TPP por sus siglas en inglés) que, según el presidente Obama, constituiría el modelo de acuerdo comercial “de alto nivel” para el nuevo siglo, que pronto podría aplicarse en todo el mundo.  En estas negociaciones han venido participando nueve países que bordean el océano Pacífico: Estados Unidos, Perú, Chile, Australia, Nueva Zelandia, Brunei, Malasia, Singapur y Vietnam.  En la última ronda, en julio, se aceptó en principio el ingreso de los otros dos socios del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte -Canadá y México- con lo cual el TPP podría convertirse en una especie de TLCAN ampliado y reforzado.  Japón también ha expresado interés por ingresar, pero no ha realizado aún un pedido formal, debido, entre otras razones, a la oposición que enfrenta internamente.  Toda vez, estos tres países –como otros que se sumen luego- no podrán incidir en el contenido de las negociaciones.

 

De lo poco que se conoce al respecto –pues los documentos de negociación se mantienen bajo estricta reserva- el TPP es un modelo altamente preocupante, pues va aún más allá de la mayoría de tratados precedentes.  Exigirá la modificación de numerosas leyes internas de los países signatarios respecto a derechos de propiedad intelectual, inversión y protección ambiental y otros temas.  Permitiría a las empresas extranjeras enjuiciar a países soberanos si imponen restricciones que afecten sus intereses.  Amenazaría el acceso a medicamentos esenciales en los países en desarrollo, y haría peligrar el libre acceso a la información en Internet.  Pero sobre todo, el TPP se negocia con una falta total de transparencia, que hace que la ciudadanía no pueda opinar sobre decisiones fundamentales que comprometerían a sus respectivos países y su soberanía durante las próximas décadas.

Link 

China Navy Takes Delivery of 1st Aircraft Carrier: Report

Defense News

China's first aircraft carrier berthed at Dalian port is seen Sept. 5. (AFP)

BEIJING — China’s first aircraft carrier was handed over to the navy of the People’s Liberation Army on Sept. 23, state press said, amid rising tensions over disputed waters in the East and South China Seas.

The handover ceremony of the 300-meter (990-foot) ship, a former Soviet carrier called the Varyag, took place in northeast China’s port of Dalian after a lengthy refitting by a Chinese shipbuilder, the Global Times reported.

During the handover ceremony the aircraft carrier raised the Chinese national flag on its mast, the PLA flag on its bow and the navy’s colors on its stern, the short online report said. A ceremony to place the ship into active service would be held sometime in the future, the paper said without elaboration.

Link

 

La DEA abre sus oficinas en Uruguay

Infobae

La agencia norteamericana dedicada a la lucha contra las drogas ilegales volverá al vecino país tras 15 años de ausencia. Es por la creciente actividad vinculada al tránsito de cocaína en el territorio del vecino país

 

Según informan hoy varios medios uruguayos, la Administración de Drogas y Narcóticos de Estados Unidos (DEA) volverá al país vecino tras cerrar sus oficinas en el año 1994, lo que fue confirmado por la Brigada Antidrogas del Uruguay.

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Peña Nieto asegura que relación entre Brasil y México tiene enorme potencial.

Infolatam.

El presidente electo de México, Enrique Peña Nieto,  pidió “superar” los temores y la “rivalidad” y abogó por impulsar la integración entre su país y Brasil, las dos mayores economías de América Latina, mediante una apertura comercial más intensa.

Peña Nieto inició sus actividades en Brasil con un encuentro con una representación del empresariado brasileño en Sao Paulo, el motor financiero e industrial del país.

El político relató su interés “por lograr una mayor integración entre México y Brasil”, países que calificó como las dos economías más importantes de América Latina, en una rueda de prensa en la sede de la Federación de Industrias del Estado de Sao Paulo (Fiesp).

El presidente electo pidió abandonar ese “constante señalamiento” que se produce en ocasiones entre ambos países, dijo que hay más puntos de unión que diferencias y defendió que la integración “beneficia” a los pueblos de Brasil y México.

Señaló que ambas economías “tienen una gran oportunidad para la complementariedad” y expresó su voluntad y su “compromiso” en erigirse como “un promotor constante de esta integración comercial entre México y Brasil”.

El comercio bilateral el año pasado fue de 9.090 millones de dólares, con un déficit para Brasil de 1.170 millones de dólares, y en los primeros ocho meses de este el intercambio sumó 7.077 millones de dólares, según datos del Gobierno brasileño.

Peña Nieto, que visita Brasil en el marco de una gira por América Latina, se mostró favorable a la consolidación y ampliación de la Alianza del Pacífico, bloque económico formado por México, Colombia, Perú y Chile.

Link.

Our Unscientific Drug Control Regime

Foreign Policy in Focus.

It is said that drugs – be they natural or synthetic, legally prescribed or illicitly consumed – and poisons only differ in dose. Indeed, today’s drugs vary tremendously in the personal and interpersonal harm they are wont to cause, from the largely innocuous caffeine in beverages like coffee or tea to the mind-altering psychotropic heroin. Some are little more than recreational substances consumed for the purpose of eliciting a psychological reaction. Still others are entrenched in cultural and spiritual practices. 

Because of the varying levels of addictiveness, potential for self-harm, and negative effects on family and community dynamics, governments around the world have historically explored ways to reduce associated dangers through legal means.

In an effort to codify international laws on commonly abused substances, the global drug control regime—a cooperative international effort spearheaded in large part by the United Nations’ Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961—was established. It has since promulgated global norms that regulate or prohibit the production, trade, and supply of certain drugs. In doing so, it has sought to curb global production levels and decrease drug consumption by organizing specific drugs into schedules of varying legal controls. By establishing four schedules—with Schedule I being the most restrictive—the regime provides a framework with which to improve, as the Convention promises, the “health and welfare of mankind.”

However, national efforts to reduce drug-related crime and overall drug use have largely failed in places like Mexico, Guinea-Bissau, and Burma. And international strategies have not done any better. These failing initiatives reflect a poorly driven global drug control regime that is ripe for reform. Because drug use (estimated to have contributed to 12.4 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2000) and crime-related deaths remain high in many parts of the world, it is crucial for international actors act sooner rather than later.

Today’s drug scales do not adequately take into account the scientific and empirical evidence for proper scheduling, relying on anachronistic, ideological standards for classification and draconian legal penalties. This not only impedes more humane and effective health policy initiatives, but also champions antiquated norms that have not stood the test of time. To have alcohol and tobacco—which, after years of prolonged use, have been shown to lead to numerous health issues—so readily available to certain adults while restricting cannabis and ecstasy (MDMA)—which have been shown to be generally less harmful by comparison—is deleterious to the integrity of the control system.

Link.

Pakistan hit by anti-Islam video protests

Al Jazeera.

The US embassy in the Pakisani capital has become the latest target of protesters angry at an anti-Islam video that triggered protests in the Arab and Muslim world.

Hundreds of students from various colleges and educational institutions in Islamabad clashed with police on Thursday as they were being blocked from reaching the embassy.

Students pelted the police with stones, and the police retaliated by firing tear gas shells.

Several students were injured when policemen hurled the stones back at the crowd.

According to local television channels, several policemen were injured.

Link.

Merkel turns to ex-mentor Kohl to sell Europe to Germans

Reuters.

Angela Merkel is seeking help from her estranged, former mentor Helmut Kohl, architect of the euro, to restore voter faith in the European project before next year's election.

Realizing her own future is tied to that of the EU, Merkel has in the last month softened her rhetoric towards the most indebted euro zone states. Next week she will make a rare joint appearance with former Christian Democrat (CDU) chancellor Kohl.

The German leader's tough approach to the euro debt crisis has boosted her popularity in the last two years and polls show she is in a strong position to win the September 2013 vote.

But she needs to ensure traditional conservatives in her own party maintain discipline in the run-up to the vote after some were angered by her defense of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's bond-buying plan for stricken euro states - a scheme the German Bundesbank opposes.

Merkel must also convince the broader electorate of the need for closer EU integration, seen as crucial to the currency's long-term survival. A poll this week showed almost two thirds of Germans would prefer to live without the euro and 49 percent without the EU.

Link.

China premier Wen Jiabao urges end to EU arms embargo

BBC.

 

China's premier Wen Jiabao has urged the EU to lift its arms embargo on Beijing, at his last EU-China summit before handing over power this year.

Speaking in Brussels, Mr Wen said "the solution has been elusive over the past 10 years. I deeply regret this".

The EU embargo was imposed after the violent suppression of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.

EU sources, quoted ahead of the summit, said "we have agreed to disagree" with China on the issue.

Mr Wen also mentioned the EU's refusal to treat China as a fully-fledged market economy, which is preventing Brussels from lifting its tariffs on Chinese goods. 

His one-day talks in Brussels with senior EU figures, including European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, focused on a range of other economic issues.

China clinched a deal to work with the EU to cut greenhouse gases and move to a low-carbon economy, the European Commission said in a statement.

Link.

Sustain U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense.

US Department of Defense (January 2012).

The United States has played a leading role in transforming the international system over the past sixty-five years. Working with like-minded nations, the United States has created a safer, more stable, and more prosperous world for the American people, our allies, and our partners around the globe than existed prior to World War II. Over the last decade, we have undertaken extended operations in Iraq and Afghanistan to bring stability to those countries and secure our interests. As we responsibly draw down from these two operations, take steps to protect our nation''s economic vitality, and protect our interests in a world of accelerating change, we face an inflection point. This merited an assessment of the U.S. defense strategy in light of the changing geopolitical environment and our changing fiscal circumstances. This assessment reflects the President's strategic direction to the Department and was deeply informed by the Department's civilian and military leadership, including the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Secretaries of the Military Departments, and the Combatant Commanders. Out of the assessment we developed a defense strategy that transitions our Defense enterprise from an emphasis on today's wars to preparing for future challenges, protects the broad range of U.S. national security interests, advances the Department's efforts to rebalance and reform, and supports the national security imperative of deficit reduction through a lower level of defense spending. 

This strategic guidance document describes the projected security environment and the key military missions for which the Department of Defense (DoD) will prepare. It is intended as a blueprint for the Joint Force in 2020, providing a set of precepts that will help guide decisions regarding the size and shape of the force over subsequent program and budget cycles, and highlighting some of the strategic risks that may be associated with the proposed strategy.

Link al documento.

América Latina ante las nuevas tendencias económicas globales

Infolatam.

Los países de América Latina han demostrado su capacidad para superar sin mayores problemas la Gran Recesión de 2008-2010. Por ello, aunque la actual coyuntura económica internacional esté plagada de riesgos (crisis del euro, desaceleración en China, Fiscal Cliff en Estados Unidos o inestabilidad en Oriente Medio), es muy probable que los países de la región puedan seguir aumentando sus niveles de renta, bienestar y cohesión social en los próximos años, aunque crezcan a tasas algo menores.

Lo que no está tan claro es cómo de preparados están para desenvolverse en el nuevo entorno económico internacional que se está fraguando, que será cada vez más multipolar y menos cooperativo, y que, previsiblemente, no tendrá demasiados instrumentos de gobernanza para resolver los conflictos.

El declive económico relativo de Occidente y el auge de las potencias emergentes, está desencadenando una nueva lógica de competición y rivalidad entre estados que lentamente va sustituyendo al entorno cooperativo y basado en reglas comunes que dominó las relaciones económicas internacionales en la segunda mitad del siglo XX.  Esta nueva realidad, que se parece a la de finales del siglo XIX, está caracterizada por el auge de la rivalidad geoeconómica, donde los países utilizan sus potencialidades económicas como instrumentos de poder. Esto supone que la lógica liberal cooperativa está siendo reemplazada por un renacer del mercantilismo clásico, donde los países vinculan cada vez más el poder económico al poder político y a la seguridad nacional.

Link.

La apuesta por la paz en Colombia

Michael Shifter/Inter-American Dialogue.

Hay tantas razones para estar lleno de esperanza, así como de escepticismo, de que las conversaciones de paz anunciadas recientemente entre el Gobierno colombiano y las Farc llevará el conflicto armado que padece el país, desde hace mucho tiempo, a su fin.

Todo el mundo tiene una opinión respecto de si las condiciones son ahora suficientemente favorables como para producir una paz duradera. Lo que es claro es que el presidente Juan Manuel Santos ha tomado un gran riesgo al seguir ese camino.

Es posible que haya decidido apostar debido a su caída en el apoyo público, con la mirada puesta en la reelección en 2014. Pero su motivación es menos importante que el hecho de que él y su gobierno, y la nación, tengan éxito en enfrentar un desafío tan enorme.

La razón principal para creer que existe una razonable posibilidad de éxito es que, gracias en gran parte a la política de “seguridad democrática” puesta en marcha durante la presidencia de Uribe, el Estado colombiano es mucho más fuerte -y las Farc más débil- que hace doce años durante el último intento fallido de hacer la paz.

Santos está aprovechando sabiamente el éxito de su predecesor en la mejora de la seguridad para dar otra oportunidad a la paz.

Afortunadamente, a Colombia no le falta experiencia en este tema.

Link.

Mitt Romney Rejects His Natural Voters

Jeffrey Frankel/Project Syndicate.

CAMBRIDGE – The political fallout from Mitt Romney’s characterization of 47% of the American electorate as “victims” who are “dependent on government” and refuse to take “personal responsibility” for their lives demonstrates anew that cultural generalizations, particularly in politics, are usually dangerous. In fact, Romney appears to have categorized a large segment of his party’s own voters as supporters of President Barack Obama.

As a rule, one should judge people on their merits, not on the supposed attributes of the racial, socioeconomic, or geographic groups to which they belong. Yet statistical relationships sometimes are so strong that it is worth pondering their significance.

In the United States, a distinction is frequently drawn between citizens of “red states,” which usually vote for the Republican Party, and those of “blue states” – concentrated in the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and the Pacific coast – which usually vote for the Democratic Party.

The unspoken truth is that, compared to “blue-staters,” those who live in red states exhibit less responsibility, on average, in their personal behavior: they are less physically fit, less careful in their sexual behavior, more prone to inflict harm on themselves and others through smoking and drinking, and more likely to receive federal subsidies.

Link.

Race Is On as Ice Melt Reveals Arctic Treasures

The New York Times.

NUUK, Greenland — With Arctic ice melting at record pace, the world’s superpowers are increasingly jockeying for political influence and economic position in outposts like this one, previously regarded as barren wastelands. 

At stake are the Arctic’s abundant supplies of oil, gas and minerals that are, thanks to climate change, becoming newly accessible along with increasingly navigable polar shipping shortcuts. This year, China has become a far more aggressive player in this frigid field, experts say, provoking alarm among Western powers. 

While the United States, Russia and several nations of the European Union have Arctic territory, China has none, and as a result, has been deploying its wealth and diplomatic clout to secure toeholds in the region. 

Link.

Russia orders US to shut its aid mission

Al Jazeera.

Russia has ordered USAID to cease operations in the country, accusing the aid mission of being a front of the American government's effort to influence its local politics and the outcome of elections.

Moscow's move on Wednesday is seen as a slap in the face on the administration of President Barack Obama, who has been seeking to "reset" bilateral ties with its former rival.

Obama, who is facing re-election in November, is being accused by his Republican rival Mitt Romney of being soft on Russia. 

Analysts said they believed the Russian decision partly reflected Moscow's hostility toward US-funded groups that seek to promote democracy and the rule of law in Russia.

"It's about attempts to influence political processes, including elections of various types, and institutions of civil society through the distribution of grants," Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

It added Moscow had serious questions over the operations of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in Russia's regions, especially in the North Caucasus where Russia is fighting an armed Islamist rebelion.

Victoria Nuland, the US state department spokeswoman, said Russia's decision will not affect American policy towards Russia.

"The American government remains committed to supporting democracy, human rights, and the development of a more robust civil society in Russia, and look forward to continuing our co-operation with Russian non-governmental organizations," Nuland said.

Link

China Unveils Another Stealth Fighter During Panetta Trip

Defense News

TAIPEI — Photos of a new Chinese stealth fighter, dubbed the J-21 and/or J-31, appeared on Chinese-language military blogs this week in time for U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s trip to China.

It is unclear if the appearance of the photos was timed with Panetta’s trip, but the first photos of the Chengdu-built J-20 Black Eagle appeared the same week as former Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ visit to China in January 2011.

The new photographs show a twin-engine stealthy fighter with the number 31001 painted on its nose.

The number suggests it is the J-31 Falcon, said Richard Fisher, an Asia military affairs analyst at the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center, but various Chinese-language blogs are debating the designation; with some suggesting it is the J-21 Snowy Owl built by Shenyang Aircraft Corp. (SAC).

Link.

Political Unrest in Venezuela.

Council on Foreign Relations.

In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant political unrest and violence that lead to the further curtailment of democracy in the country. Presidential elections are scheduled to take place on October 7, 2012. President Hugo Chavez is in the midst of a tough reelection campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski—the young and energetic governor of the state of Miranda—who enjoys multiparty support and appears to have a better chance of defeating the incumbent than earlier challengers.

Over the course of the past year, Chavez and several of his most senior associates have asserted that there will be instability and violence if he is not reelected. At the same time, Chavez is battling cancer, but he has shared little information with the public about the state of his health beyond the fact that he has twice been treated for the disease since spring 2011. Speculation about Chavez's health problems has generated considerable uncertainty among his supporters, especially since he has not anointed a successor. Should Chavez appear to be losing the election, die suddenly, or withdraw from public life for health reasons, tensions are likely to rise in Venezuela, especially if the public suspects that Chavez has used extra-constitutional means to preclude or invalidate an opposition victory in order to sustain his regime's hold on power. Protests over such actions, which could turn violent, may in turn lead to the imposition of martial law and the further curtailment of democratic rights in Venezuela. This would almost certainly trigger a major political crisis in the Western Hemisphere that pits countries seeking to restore democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela—including the United States—against those who support Chavez and the principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of other states. Longstanding U.S. efforts to promote good governance in Latin America as well as cooperation on a range of political, economic, and security challenges in the region would be threatened as a consequence.

Accordingly, the United States should seek free and fair elections in Venezuela. If Chavez or a replacement candidate is defeated, it should offer to help promote an orderly, peaceful transition. If Chavez is reelected in a process judged acceptably free and fair, the United States should seek to reset the bilateral relationship with an eye toward the eventual renewal of high-level communication on areas of mutual interest. If the election results appear fraudulent or apparently legitimate results are nullified, the United States should encourage international pressure to restore democracy and suspend bilateral business as usual until a legitimate government is restored.

Link.

NATO disasters stack up in Afghanistan

Los Angeles Times.

In a disastrous day for the NATO force in Afghanistan, four American troops were gunned down Sunday by Afghan police, a U.S. airstrike killed eight Afghan women foraging for fuel on a rural hillside, and military officials disclosed that a Taliban strike on a southern base had destroyed more than $150 million worth of planes and equipment — in money terms, by far the costliest single insurgent attack in 11 years of warfare.

The confluence of events underscored some of the conflict's most damaging trends: an unrelenting tide of "insider" attacks, in which Afghan forces turn their weapons on coalition allies; the daily loss of civilian lives to war's ravages; and the continuing ability of insurgent forces to inflict disproportionate havoc on the far more powerful Western military.

Link.

EE.UU., preocupado por disputas territoriales en el este asiático

BBC Mundo.

El secretario de Defensa de Estados Unidos, Leon Panetta, advirtió que las disputas territoriales en el este asiático podrían llegar a convertirse en un conflicto serio si no se baja el nivel de las provocaciones.

"Un juicio erróneo de cualquiera de las partes podría llevar a violencia que desemboque en un conflicto", advirtió Pannetta al comienzo de una gira asiática.

El secretario de Defensa de Barack Obama se refiere así a las protestas antijaponesas que se han desarrollado en los últimos días en China por la disputa sobre la soberanía de las islas del mar de China Oriental.

El enfado se ha recrudecido en China desde que Japón anunció que ha comprado tres de las islas, que se conocen como Senkaku en Japón y Diaoyu en China, a sus propietarios privados.

La agencia de noticias japonesa Kyodo dijo que el nivel de dureza de las manifestaciones es el más fuerte desde que los dos países normalizaran sus relaciones diplomáticas en 1972.

Link.

U.S., allies in Gulf naval exercise as Israel, Iran face off

Reuters.

The United States and its allies have launched a major naval exercise in the Gulf that they say shows a global will to keep oil shipping lanes open as Israel and Iran trade threats of war.

Publicly announced in July, the operation, known as IMCMEX-12, focuses on clearing mines that Tehran, or guerrilla groups, might deploy to disrupt tanker traffic, notably in the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and the Arabian peninsula.

The start of the event, with a symposium for officers from more than 30 navies, came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. television viewers on Sunday that Tehran was close to being able to build a nuclear bomb; his words fuelled talk of an Israeli strike, and of Netanyahu pressuring President Barack Obama to back Israel as Obama battles for re-election.

Military officials, diplomats and analysts - as well as Iran itself - all sought to play down the significance of the timing and to stress the defensive and hypothetical aspects of the exercise, which moves on to the water from Thursday with ships from a much smaller number of nations taking part in maneuvers.

However, it was a clearly deliberate demonstration of the determination on the part of a broad coalition of states to counter any attempt Iran might make to disrupt Gulf shipping in response to an Israeli or U.S. strike on its nuclear facilities - a form of retaliation Iran has repeatedly threatened.

Link

Hezbollah leader delivers rare public speech

Al Jazeera.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has made a rare public appearance to address tens of thousands of supporters who took to the streets of southern Beirut to denounce a film mocking Islam and the Prophet Mohammed.

Monday's address was only Nasrallah's fifth public appearance in six years, and the first time he made a full speech in person to thousands of his supporters since 2008.

The gathering in a predominantly Shia suburb of Lebanon's capital was one of many protests that continued around the world on Monday.

"O Prophet, we die for you, my soul and my blood are for you," the leader of the powerful Shia movement said, urging the crowd to repeat the words after him for the whole world to hear.

"America must understand ... the US must understand that releasing the entire film will have dangerous, very dangerous, repercussions around the world.

"It's a very big protest - one of the biggest if not the biggest I have seen here," said Al Jazeera's Rula Amin, reporting from Beirut. "Hassan Nasrallah himself showed up, joined the protests, took the podium and delivered a live speech."

Our correspondent said the fact that he was physically there "was a sign how significant this issue is and was only the beginning of what they would do to protest".

"He said anger should not be directed towards Christians, but that it's a political issue with anger directed towards the the US and Israel. They didn't target anyone [violently] or make any sign they would target US businesses or citizens."

Link.

Ecuador’s Economy Since 2007

CEPR.

Outside observers could be forgiven for expecting Ecuador to suffer terribly during and after the recent global crisis.  Two of the country’s largest sources of foreign earnings, petroleum exports and remittances from abroad, crashed during the global recession.  Furthermore, lacking its own currency, the government’s options for responding were limited.  But instead of a deep, protracted recession, Ecuador lost only 1.3 percent of GDP during three quarters of contraction.  After four additional quarters the economy returned to the pre-recession level of output, and two years after the recession started, it reached its 20-year growth trend.

This paper takes a detailed look at the fiscal, monetary, and other economic and social policies implemented during the last five years, as well as the role of the external sector in the economy.  It also examines economic and social outcomes including levels of poverty, inequality, and unemployment as well as education and health outcomes for children.

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Exportaciones de América Latina y el Caribe sufren desaceleración por causa de crisis internacional

CEPAL/Infolatam.

 El comercio exterior de América Latina y el Caribe profundizará este año la desaceleración experimentada a partir del segundo semestre de 2011. El valor de las exportaciones de la región tendrá un crecimiento de 4% en 2012, mientras que las importaciones aumentarán 3% este año, según estimaciones presentadas hoy por la CEPAL en su informe anual Panorama de la inserción internacional de América Latina y el Caribe 2011-2012

El organismo de Naciones Unidas señala que la actual recesión en la zona euro, el escaso dinamismo económico en Estados Unidos y Japón, y la moderación del crecimiento en China y otras economías emergentes afectarán al comercio de la región, que mostrará en 2012 cifras que en promedio se sitúan cerca de 20 puntos porcentuales por debajo de las tasas de expansión registradas el año pasado.

Se prevé que en 2012 el valor del comercio exterior de México y Centroamérica crezca por sobre la media regional (7,3% en exportaciones y 5% en importaciones), en tanto que América del Sur se ubicaría por debajo (1,1% y 3,2%, respectivamente). Los países del Caribe registrarían caídas en su intercambio comercial (-0,7% en las exportaciones y -2,1% en importaciones), lo que se explica por sus mayores vínculos con la Unión Europea.

Según la CEPAL, América Latina y el Caribe es la región del mundo que experimentó el mayor crecimiento del volumen exportado en el último trimestre de 2011 y en los primeros cuatro meses de 2012, en un contexto mundial de desaceleración del comercio. Sin embargo, la crisis europea y la aversión global al riesgo han afectado su desempeño exportador en los meses posteriores.

Esta desaceleración ha afectado a los intercambios con todos los principales socios comerciales de la región, especialmente a las exportaciones dirigidas a la Unión Europea, que cayeron 5% en el primer semestre de 2012 con respecto a igual período de 2011. El débil desempeño de las exportaciones a la Unión Europea se mantendría para el  año completo, aunque habrá diferencias entre subregiones (países de la Comunidad del Caribe -19%; América del Sur -7%; México y Centroamérica 16%).

Link

Soros: The Tragedy of the European Union and How to Resolve It

The New York Review of Books.

I have been a fervent supporter of the European Union as the embodiment of an open society—a voluntary association of equal states that surrendered part of their sovereignty for the common good. The euro crisis is now turning the European Union into something fundamentally different. The member countries are divided into two classes—creditors and debtors—with the creditors in charge, Germany foremost among them. Under current policies debtor countries pay substantial risk premiums for financing their government debt, and this is reflected in the cost of financing in general. This has pushed the debtor countries into depression and put them at a substantial competitive disadvantage that threatens to become permanent.

This is the result not of a deliberate plan but of a series of policy mistakes that started when the euro was introduced. It was general knowledge that the euro was an incomplete currency—it had a central bank but did not have a treasury. But member countries did not realize that by giving up the right to print their own money they exposed themselves to the risk of default. Financial markets realized it only at the onset of the Greek crisis. The financial authorities did not understand the problem, let alone see a solution. So they tried to buy time. But instead of improving, the situation deteriorated. This was entirely due to the lack of understanding and the lack of unity.

The course of events could have been arrested and reversed at almost any time but that would have required an agreed-upon plan and ample financial resources to implement it. Germany, as the largest creditor country, was in charge but was reluctant to take on any additional liabilities; as a result every opportunity to resolve the crisis was missed. The crisis spread from Greece to other deficit countries and eventually the very survival of the euro came into question. Since breakup of the euro would cause immense damage to all member countries and particularly to Germany, Germany will continue to do the minimum necessary to hold the euro together.

The policies pursued under German leadership will likely hold the euro together for an indefinite period, but not forever. The permanent division of the European Union into creditor and debtor countries with the creditors dictating terms is politically unacceptable for many Europeans. If and when the euro eventually breaks up it will destroy the common market and the European Union. Europe will be worse off than it was when the effort to unite it began, because the breakup will leave a legacy of mutual mistrust and hostility. The later it happens, the worse the ultimate outcome. That is such a dismal prospect that it is time to consider alternatives that would have been inconceivable until recently.

In my judgment the best course of action is to persuade Germany to choose between becoming a more benevolent hegemon, or leading nation, or leaving the euro. In other words, Germany must lead or leave.

Link.

The Interview: Zbigniew Brzezinski.

The Diplomat.

The Diplomat's Assistant Editor Zachary Keck sat down with former U.S. National Security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski to discuss America's role in world affairs, the shifting geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific, the feasibility of eliminating nuclear weapons, and rising powers growing involvement in America's backdoor. 

In Strategic Vision you argue that in today’s world no one power will ever be capable of dominating Eurasia in the way Harold Mackinder famously envisioned. Taking that argument at its face, this represents a tectonic shift for U.S. foreign policy given that, long before Washington was able to meaningfully affect the balance of power in Eurasia, its leaders saw preventing a hegemon from dominating it as a key strategic necessity. If the U.S. no longer has to concern itself with safeguarding Mackinder’s “world-island” from a potential hegemon(s), what should be the main objective of U.S. engagement in Europe and Asia going forward?

The main objective of U.S. engagement in Europe and in Asia should be to support an equilibrium that discourages any one power from acting in an excessively assertive fashion towards its neighbors.  In the foreseeable future, it is, in any case, unlikely that any single power will have the military superiority that would enable it to assert itself in a hegemonic fashion on as a diverse, complex, and complicated mega-continent such as Eurasia.  Having a close relationship with Europe, though maintaining a complex partnership with China and an alliance with Japan, will provide the United States with sufficient foci for a strategic engagement designed to maintain a relatively stable even if delicate equilibrium on the so-called “world island.”

Link.

The Deafness Before the Storm

The New York Times.

IT was perhaps the most famous presidential briefing in history.

On Aug. 6, 2001, President George W. Bush received a classified review of the threats posed by Osama bin Laden and his terrorist network, Al Qaeda. That morning’s “presidential daily brief” — the top-secret document prepared by America’s intelligence agencies — featured the now-infamous heading: “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.” A few weeks later, on 9/11, Al Qaeda accomplished that goal. 

On April 10, 2004, the Bush White House declassified that daily brief — and only that daily brief — in response to pressure from the 9/11 Commission, which was investigating the events leading to the attack. Administration officials dismissed the document’s significance, saying that, despite the jaw-dropping headline, it was only an assessment of Al Qaeda’s history, not a warning of the impending attack. While some critics considered that claim absurd, a close reading of the brief showed that the argument had some validity. 

That is, unless it was read in conjunction with the daily briefs preceding Aug. 6, the ones the Bush administration would not release. While those documents are still not public, I have read excerpts from many of them, along with other recently declassified records, and come to an inescapable conclusion: the administration’s reaction to what Mr. Bush was told in the weeks before that infamous briefing reflected significantly more negligence than has been disclosed. In other words, the Aug. 6 document, for all of the controversy it provoked, is not nearly as shocking as the briefs that came before it. 

Link.

Kishore Mahbubani: Is China Losing the Diplomatic Plot?

Project-Syndicate

China’s leaders would be naïve and foolish to bank on their country’s peaceful and quiet rise to global preeminence. At some point, America will awaken from its geopolitical slumber; there are already signs that it has opened one eye. 

But China has begun to make serious mistakes. After Japan acceded to Chinese pressure and released a captured Chinese trawler in September 2010, China went overboard and demanded an apology from Japan, rattling the Japanese establishment.

Similarly, after North Korean shells killed innocent South Korean civilians in November 2010, China remained essentially silent. In a carefully calibrated response, South Korea sent its ambassador to attend the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for the imprisoned Chinese human-rights activist Liu Xiaobo in December 2010.

China has also ruffled many Indian feathers by arbitrarily denying visas to senior officials. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao subsequently calmed the waters in meetings with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, but such unnecessary provocations left a residue of mistrust in India.

But all of these mistakes pale in comparison with what China did to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in July. For the first time in 45 years, the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) failed to agree to a joint communiqué, ostensibly because ASEAN’s current chair, Cambodia, did not want the communiqué to refer to bilateral disputes in the South China Sea. But the whole world, including most ASEAN countries, perceived Cambodia’s stance as the result of enormous Chinese pressure.

Link.

Stiglitz cree que pedir el rescate sería un suicidio para España

Cinco Días
España

En una entrevista con EFE Stiglitz ha dejado claro que la oferta del Banco Central Europeo de una compra ilimitada de bonos a cambio de satisfacer condiciones aún no especificadas "suena claramente a rescate" y a una oferta de ayuda "a cambio del suicidio".

A juicio del estadounidense, que ha promocionado en Madrid el libro "El precio de la desigualdad" (Taurus), la cuestión es saber si lo que las autoridades monetarias pretenden es ayudar a los ciudadanos o a los bancos que incurrirían en pérdidas en caso de que España no pudiese refinanciar su deuda.

Muy crítico con las políticas de austeridad a ultranza, el Nobel de Economía de 2001 tiene claro que Europa debería poner el foco en el crecimiento y la inversión si quiere reestructurar su economía, y cree que "el diagnóstico alemán está absolutamente equivocado" cuando acusa a países como España de gastar demasiado.

De hecho, si España no sólo no ha conseguido salir de la depresión, sino que cada vez profundiza más en ella, es porque los funcionarios internacionales han "subestimado" la magnitud de la crisis que provocarían con sus recetas de austeridad, según Stiglitz.

Link

A Depressingly Crowded Map of Conflicts in Africa

The Atlantic.

There have been hundreds – maybe thousands – of armed conflicts throughout Africa between 1997 and 2011. A new map shows them all.

Created by design student Francisco Dans and the Center for Spatial Analysis at University College London, the map shows in vivid, horrible detail the overwhelming number of armed conflicts that have taken place over just a 15 year period.

The conflicts are divided into four categories: violence against civilians (red), riots/protests (blue), battles (green) and other (yellow). Some are a combination (purples and oranges), and each dot on the map is based on news reports documenting the conflicts. Clicking through to the original map and hovering over a dot there reveals brief details about each conflict.

Beyond the sheer number of conflicts is their geography. The majority of these events took place along an equatorial band, concentrating largely in countries like Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Sudan, Uganda, Burundi and Somalia. There are also a few hotspots in northern Africa in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt – the battlegrounds of the so-called Arab Spring and its aftermath. A notable bright red spot exists in Zimbabwe, where there have been numerous reports of violence against civilians.

It's pretty depressing, but also a very important picture of turmoil at a continental scale.

Link.

Reinforcing Washington's Asia-Pacific Hegemony

Foreign Policy in Focus.

A year ago, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signaled a major transformation in U.S. foreign policy in an article titled “America’s Pacific Century,” which announced the U.S. “pivot” toward Asia, the Pacific, and the strategically important Indian Ocean. “One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade,” she wrote, will be “to lock in a substantially increased investment — diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise— in the Asia-Pacific region.” The increased engagement, she wrote, would be underwritten in part by “forging a broad-based military presence.”

Shortly thereafter, the Pentagon published its new “strategic guidance” paper, which, signaling at a shift away from Iraq and Central Asia, named the Asia-Pacific region and the Persian Gulf as the nation’s two geostrategic priorities. To emphasize the new commitments, Clinton, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and President Barack Obama made high-profile visits to allied Asian and Pacific nations. Republicans, in Mitt Romney’s foreign policy white paper, upped the ante, insisting that the United States “expand its naval presence in the Western Pacific” and pressure its allies to “maintain appropriate military capabilities.”

Link.

Libya Attack Provokes Washington Crisis.

The New York Times.

WASHINGTON — The violent deaths of four American diplomatic personnel in Libya during a heavily armed and possibly planned assault on a flimsily protected consulate facility on the Sept. 11 anniversary provoked an uproar in Washington on Wednesday, presenting new challenges in the volatile Middle East less than two months before the American presidential election. 

The killings of the four Americans on Tuesday, including the ambassador to Libya, J. Christopher Stevens, also raised basic questions about security and intelligence in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi, where the assault took place, as well as other American diplomatic facilities elsewhere in the region, where deep-seated anti-American sentiment remains a potent force despite United States support for the Arab Spring uprisings that have transfixed the region for nearly two years. 

President Obama denounced the attack, promised to avenge the killings and ordered tighter security at all American diplomatic installations. The administration also dispatched 50 Marines to Libya for greater diplomatic protection, ordered all nonemergency personnel to leave Libya and warned Americans not to travel there, suggesting further attacks were possible. 

Link.

From Syria to Palestine: A Shift in Focus?

Immanuel Wallerstein
ALAI

If we analyze the geopolitics of the Middle East, what should be the principal focus? There is little agreement on an answer, and yet it is the key question. The Israeli government has been sedulously and constantly trying to make the focus be Iran. This has been considered by most observers as an effort to divert attention from Israel's unwillingness to pursue serious negotiations with the Palestinians.

In any case, this Israeli effort has failed, spectacularly. Netanyahu has been unable to get the U.S. government to commit to supporting an Israeli raid on Iran. And Iran's ability to gather most of the non-Western world -- including Pakistan, India, China, Palestine, and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon -- to the meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in Tehran underlines the political impossibility of the Israeli wish to concentrate attention on Iran.

For the past year, the center of attention has become Syria, not Iran, even if there is a link between the two. It has been primarily Saudi Arabia and Qatar that have struggled, with considerable success, to make Syria the focus of attention. Some observers feel this has been an effort to divert attention from Saudi Arabia's internal problems and anti-Shi'a oppression in the Gulf states, especially Bahrain. 

Link

¿Crisis del sistema financiero o reconfiguración mundial del capital?

Por Federico Dulcich - Federico Galkin - Luciana Rolón
IADE

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el impacto de la crisis global en EEUU e intentar desentrañar las causas fundamentales de la crisis en este ámbito nacional, sin detenerse en los análisis unilaterales acerca del sistema financiero. De esta forma, se busca romper con la escisión entre sistema financiero y real, para analizarlo en su conjunto. Indagando sobre las determinaciones del dólar como dinero mundial y sus repercusiones en la estructura productiva de EEUU, con el propósito de desarrollar la hipótesis de que la crisis global está fundada en una relocalización general del capital.

La última crisis global que estalló a mitad del 2008 en EEUU tomo por sorpresa a la teoría económica mainstream, revelando su incapacidad a la hora de explicar y predecir la crisis. Al mismo tiempo se evidenciaron contradicciones dentro de la teoría predominante frente a las primeras medidas tomadas por los países más damnificados para frenar de forma inmediata la crisis. A pesar de estas contradicciones y deslegitimaciones dentro de la teoría predominante, los análisis más aceptados sobre la última crisis, que consideran a esta como una crisis financiera, provienen de esta teoría. Abundan explicaciones que hacen responsable de la crisis a la expansión desmesurada del crédito, a la imprudente calificación de riesgo a créditos otorgados y a la falta de regulación financiera y contracíclica.

 

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Colombia: Extractive Capital and Peace Negotiations

James Petras
Global Research

In late August 2012, President Santos announced that the Colombian regime was opening peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, (FARC), with the aim of ending nearly 50 years of civil war.

Several economic, social, political and military changes account for the Santos regimes abrupt shift from a policy of “peace” through extermination of the guerrillas to a policy of a negotiated peace. The most basic change is the regimes adoption of an economic model based on developmentalism via large scale long term flows of foreign extractionist capital – in mining, petroleum and gas.

The second factor is the regimes’ perception that, after a decade of intense repression, including the assassination of thousands of peasants, trade unionists and human rights activists and the forcible displacement of three to four million peasants from zones of guerrilla activity, the popular insurgency no longer is an immediate threat to regime power and that it is an appropriate moment to shift from militarization of the country to exploiting its abundant natural resources, especially at a time of high commodity prices.

Link

México y la cruenta división del cartel de los Zetas

BBC Mundo

Por meses, el rumor circuló en blogs, narcomantas y hasta narcocorridos colgados en YouTube: Heriberto Lazcano (alias El Lazca o Z3) y Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales (alias Z40), los dos principales capos del Cartel de los Zetas, el de más rápido crecimiento en México, se encuentran enfrascados en una lucha fratricida que amenaza con despedazar a su organización.

Algunas revistas y diarios mexicanos ya habían informado al respecto, aunque citando fuentes anónimas de la policía y el ejército. Hace pocos días la Procuradora General de México, Marisela Morales, se convirtió en la primera figura gubernamental de alto nivel en confirmar la división.

Cuando se le hizo una pregunta específica sobre el enfrentamiento en el seno de los Zetas, Morales confirmó que la Procuraduría había recibido información al respecto de parte de los organismos de inteligencia.

Link

'No industrial policy please, we're British' is out of date

Ha-Joon Chang
Guardian

On Tuesday, Vince Cable, the business secretary, announced a raft of industrial policy measures. Getting star billing was the proposal to establish a new bank for business lending, but he also proposed investments in skills, proactive government procurement, and the relaxation of health and safety regulations.

There are many questions that need to be asked about his proposals. Why does the government need a new bank when it already owns two of the biggest banks in the world – RBS and HBOS? Why is this new bank supposed to be only a virtual bank – that is, a government pot of money lent through other banks – rather than a proper bank?

Link

La guerra de Yemen (1)

Eurasianhub

La revista Time, dedica  una espectacular portada alusiva a la guerra de Yemen  en su número del 10 al 17 de septiembre. Sobre la fotografía de un soldado del Ejército yemení encaramado triunfalmente a un carro de combate destruido, se puede leer el titular: “¿El fin de Al Qaeda? Yemen está luchando y ganando. Por qué la victoria allí puede significar el final del sueño global de Bin Laden”. El reportaje, firmado por Bobby Ghosh, toma como referencia la recuperación de la provincia de Abyan por las fuerzas gubernamentales yemeníes e, indirectamente, sugiere algunas claves sobre el alcance del conflicto que está teniendo lugar en esa república arábiga.

El reportaje de Ghosh se publica en coincidencia con el aniversario del 11-S, pero también en plena campaña electoral por la Casa Blanca, en un momento en el que el presidente Barack Obama necesita exhibir resultados en política internacional, sobre todo en relación al islamismo radical en MENA.  La guerra de Siria, en la cual Washington ha puesto carne en el asador, parece estancada; y en cambio, el peso de las unidades de yihadistas ya se hace sentir, de forma incómoda, en el bando rebelde. 

En Irak también se vuelve a manifestar la presencia de los islamistas radicales, en forma de cadenas de atentados masivos. Y en lo que fue el norte de Mali, en África, los salafistas parecen estar consiguiendo crear su propio estado soberano: Azawad. Las cosas tampoco van bien en Afganistán, donde se suceden los ataques y atentados contras las fuerzas de la ISAF, y según cómo salgan  de ese escenario, en 2014, podría quedar en evidencia que la OTAN va a cosechar su primera derrota militar, y en la “tumba de los imperios”, para mas inri. De ahí que proclamar ahora una victoria contra AQAP (Al Qaeda en la Penísnula Arábiga) en Yemen posea una nada desdeñable trascendencia estratégica.

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Escenarios globales para el 2030.

EnfoqueMundo

El National Intelligence Council (NIC), organismo del gobierno norteamericano encargado de realizar prospectivas en el mediano y largo plazo con énfasis en la seguridad nacional, elabora cada cuatro años un informe para el presidente entrante de los Estados Unidos sobre las grandes tendencias geopolíticas a desplegarse en las casi dos décadas por venir. El informe de este año se titula Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. El NIC ha publicado un avance, del cual recogemos los tres escenarios alternativos que el referido informe prevé para 2030:

·        Fragmentación: una economía global de velocidades múltiples es el telón de fondo de un mundo en el que hay una ausencia de voluntad política general para resolver problemas globales a gran escala. El Occidente tradicional se queda atrás mientras a Asia le va mejor, pero América del Sur y África continúan creciendo. El riesgo de conflicto -inclusive entre grandes potencias- se incrementa, pero no es inevitable. El desarrollo tecnológico es rápido allá donde las economías nacionales y regionales son fuertes, tal como en Asia. La cooperación frente a desafíos globales como el cambio climático, el medio ambiente, el comercio y el desarrollo pierde impulso.

·        Fusión: inicialmente hay un aumento de la competencia geopolítica tras una confrontación entre los Estados Unidos y China en Corea del Norte y una transición democrática en Beijing. Los Estados Unidos y China trabajan juntos para iniciar una revolución tecnológica encaminada a reconstruir sus respectivas economías. Esto lleva a una “era dorada” de actividad tecnológica en la década de 2020. Países que ocupan el nexo geográfico entre Occidente y Oriente (Turquía, Rusia, Israel) se convierten en importantes zonas trans-culturales. Emerge un consenso global sobre el tema energético. El incremento de los flujos de fuerza de trabajo contribuye a la construcción de un mundo más cooperativo.

 Suma Cero: incapacitados por sus crecientes problemas fiscales, los Estados Unidos se retraen. Tensiones crecientes entre China e India, India y Pakistán, el Medio Oriente sunita y chiíta provocan un retorno de prácticas, políticas y regulaciones que recuerdan a la Guerra Fría, causando la intensificación a nivel mundial de las identidades nacionales, étnicas y tribales. La inversión en tecnología militar impulsa una proporción mayor del desarrollo y el control gubernamental de la tecnología se refuerza. Hay una carencia de innovación civil. Las divisiones entre Estados miembro ata de manos a las instituciones multilaterales. Saltan los precios de los alimentos y las disputas alrededor del agua se incrementan, con un número mayor de países al filo del colapso estatal.

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