Brasil inicia redução gradual de tropas na força de paz no Haiti

Defesa.Net

 

Três anos após o terremoto que deixou mais de 230 mil mortos no Haiti, o Ministério da Defesa (MD) começa gradualmente a reduzir a quantidade de militares enviada para integrar a força de paz naquele país caribenho.

Com a nova troca de contingentes, que deverá ser concluída na primeira semana de junho, o Brasil voltará a contar com um único batalhão na capital Porto Príncipe. Atualmente, 1.910 militares brasileiros atuam no Haiti. Com a extinção do Batalhão de Infantaria da Força de Paz (Brabatt 2), esse efetivo deverá cair para 1.450 militares, o mesmo contingente de antes do terremoto de 2010.

A redução militar naquele país é fruto de entendimento com a Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU). O batalhão único ficará sob o comando do coronel Zenedir da Mota Fontoura, que desembarcará no Haiti com a tropa militar no dia 7 de junho, de acordo com calendário divulgado pelo Estado-Maior Conjunto das Forças Armadas (EMCFA).

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Political Pivot in Israel?

Council of Foreign Relations CFR
Interview to Bernard Gwertzman

In the wake of the January 22 Israeli parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking the largest coalition government he can secure, says expert David Makovsky, because "the biggest government means no one faction can hold him by the throat." He says that U.S. officials were pleased by the surge of votes toward the center and the likelihood that newspaper columnist and radio host Yair Lapid is destined to play a major role in the new government. "There will be more moderate people in the government who happen to have positions on peace that would certainly be preferable to a right-wing government," Makovsky says. Outside of the elections, he says that Israelis are also increasingly concerned about developments in Syria, particularly the fate of Syria's chemical weapons, which they do not want to see fall into the hands of Hezbollah or other anti-Israeli elements.

The Israeli elections are now about a week old, but the maneuvering to form a new government has just begun. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed great concern about Syria's chemical weapons falling into the wrong hands. Is this something we have to take seriously, or is this just a distraction?

Israel has tried to stay out of the Syria situation for a variety of reasons. It's not because Israelis are not appalled by the slaughter, but they're fearful that if they openly side with the opposition, it will be a bear hug. Secondly, the Israelis are very nervous about reports of jihadis in the opposition. They see the choice as between bad and worse. They want President Bashar al-Assad to go, but they don't have confidence in who he'll be replaced by. Israelis believe they cannot influence the shape of the outcome in Syria and they are focused on the worst-case scenario, which is that there could be proliferation of chemical weaponry or a transfer of them to Hezbollah. They are also concerned that the loss of a centralized state in Syria could mean weak borders that could easily be infiltrated.

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''Los BRICS invierten en prioridades nacionales''

John Fraser
Bitácora

''Las prioridades nacionales estarían determinando más las decisiones de negocios en el grupo BRICS que las perspectivas de crear un gran mercado con esa alianza, que conforman Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica''.

Así lo sostuvo en entrevista con IPS el economista Chris Hart, estratega principal de la gestora de activos Investment Solutions, luego de haber visitado Brasil e India.Hart, junto al jefe de inversiones de la misma compañía, Glen Silverman, planea viajar también a China y Rusia para evaluar de primera mano las posibilidades de Sudáfrica dentro de este grupo de economías emergentes.

Los expertos también prevén reunir información sobre cuáles son los principales motores de inversión entre los miembros del BRICS.

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America the Energy Superpower: An Update

David Karl
Foreign Policy Blogs

A regular theme on this blog (here, here, here and here) is how the marked surge in U.S. oil and natural gas production over the past several years is reviving America’s strategic prospects.  The energy boom, which is due largely to innovations in extraction technology – namely, hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling – that have unlocked gas and oil deposits previously thought inaccessible within tightly-packed shale rock formations, is a key geopolitical development already triggering significant global reverberations.  It puts paid to what was just a short time ago widely held notions about how the country was inexorably depleting its hydrocarbon energy resources.  It also puts a major dent in what many believe is this era’s mega-narrative – that China’s global preeminence is all but ordained.

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Long War Theory

Susi Dennison
The European

In countries like Mali, the hard work begins after the defeat of the insurgency. Development and reconciliation could become the cornerstones of a common European foreign policy. 

Gettyimages

On Thursday, the British Foreign Office joined other European capitals in issuing a statement advising its nationals to leave Benghazi in Libya. But the UK warned specifically that: "Following French military intervention in Mali, there is a possibility of retaliatory attacks targeting Western interests in the region.” The direct link made in the statement between France’s decision two weeks ago to send French troops into Mali, and increasing insecurity in the region appears to call into question the wisdom of the French intervention. However the British government has, from the beginning, taken a positive view towards it. Along with Belgium and Denmark, it was one of the first EU states to offer equipment to support the operation. Does this response to the deteriorating security situation in Benghazi suggest that European unity around the intervention in Mali is beginning to unravel?

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El enigma del carbón que contamina a China

BBC Mundo

Los habitantes de Datong llaman a su ciudad la capital china del carbón, y no es muy difícil enterarse porqué. Fuera de la ciudad se pueden ver enormes torres mineras y edificios que dejan cicatrices en el terreno.

En una de las minas de carbón, las palas mecánicas trabajan sin descanso. Arrastran grandes montañas del mineral cerca de los camiones que lo van a transportar. El aire está lleno de suciedad, ennegrecido por el polvo de carbón.

Es un negocio sucio, pero en China es un trabajo crucial. El carbón ha alimentado el boom económico del país, triplicándose su consumo en poco más de una década. 

Actualmente, China quema casi el mismo carbón que consume el resto del mundo junto. Pero eso está dejando a muchas ciudades, incluida Pekín, sofocadas por un peligroso smog.

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Theotonio Dos Santos: Integración: fenómeno de larga duración

ALAI

Con este artículo pretendemos demostrar una tesis central: la integración suramericana –que se convirtió en el principal objetivo de la actual política externa brasileña– es más que una cuestión económica, la integración es un fenómeno de larga duración, expresión de un destino histórico.

 

 El continente americano, antes de la llegada truculenta de Cristóbal Colón, albergaba una población de cincuenta a setenta millones de habitantes que estaban relativamente integrados, sobre todo a través de las conquistas Aztecas en el sur de América del Norte y del avance del imperio Inca en la región Andina.  Hoy sabemos también que la región amazónica comprendía cerca de cinco millones de habitantes y había una alta comunicación de estos imperios en su interior, entre ellos y entre los pueblos que no estaban incorporados a ellos.

 

La violenta colonización española y portuguesa (además de las incursiones de otros centros imperiales europeos) buscó administrar esta vastísima región articulándola demográfica, económica, social y culturalmente bajo una dirección única, a la vez que reorientó sus economías hacia el mercado mundial en expansión del siglo XV al XVIII bajo la égida del capitalismo comercial-manufacturero.  En las regiones de menor densidad habitadas por poblaciones originarias, asistimos al fenómeno del comercio de esclavos, traídos de África en condiciones infrahumanas.

 

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China’s Shale Gas Dream

 

James Parker
The Diplomat

As Anthony Fensom’s recent article on the U.S. underscores, knowledge of the vast potential of “unconventional oil and gas” has been spreading rapidly in recent years. 

But, as Pacific Money has noted before, North America is not the only potential benefactor of this trend. In fact, China is believed to hold the world’s largest reserves of shale gas, with the Ministry of Land and Resources estimates the country has134 trillion cubic meters of shale gas with 25 tcm of this recoverable.

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Dilma e Piñera voltam a discutir corredor interoceânico Brasil-Chile

Agencia Brasil

Brasília – A interligação do Brasil e do Chile a partir dos oceanos Atlântico e Pacífico deve se tornar realidade em pouco tempo. Os debates em torno do corredor interoceânico foram aprofundados hoje (26) em Santiago, capital chilena, entre a presidenta Dilma Rousseff e o presidente do Chile, Sebastián Piñera.

Durante reunião de trabalho no início da manhã, que antecedeu a abertura da 1ª Cúpula da Comunidade de Estados Latino-Americanos e Caribenhos (Celac) – União Europeia (UE), Piñera apresentou um mapa à presidenta brasileira ao retomar o debate sobre essa integração. Segundo Dilma Rousseff, depois de discutir “intensamente” o tema, os dois países vão começar a trabalhar pela integração dos principais portos marítimos.

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Alexander Wendt on UFO’s, Black Swans and Constructivist International Relations Theory

Theory Talks

In 1992, Alexander Wendt shook up the world of International Relations Theory by publishing an article titled 'Anarchy is what States make of it: the social construction of power politics'. Wendt argues that anarchy can be a structural fact about the world that states inhabit, but that it is up to politicians (and IR scholars) to decide how to deal with that anarchy. Since then, Wendt’s social constructivist approach to International Relations has gained a lot of interest and one cannot talk about IR Theory without mentioning his work.

 

 

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El litio en la Argentina: oportunidades y desafíos de un recurso estratégico

Julio Sevares y Juan Pablo Krzemien
IADE

El litio se ha convertido en un mineral estratégico porque su utilización permitirá el ingreso de la industria automotriz en la era del vehículo eléctrico, sustituyendo al petróleo.

Las mayores reservas explotables del mineral se encuentran en el denominado “triángulo del litio” del cual la Argentina forma parte, junto con Bolivia y Chile.

En este trabajo se busca demostrar la posibilidad de que nuestro país se convierta no solo en un proveedor primario de este valioso recurso, sino que a partir de su industrialización se generen desarrollos tecnológicos, una producción de mayor valor agregado y una demanda de mano de obra más extensa y calificada.

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America: The Next Energy Superpower?

Anthony Fensom
The Diplomat

From previously challenging the “tyranny of oil,” newly inaugurated U.S. President Barack Obama enters his second term in office as leader of a potential oil and gas superpower. According to BP’s Energy Outlook 2030, unconventional sources will make the United States virtually energy self-sufficient by 2030, largely thanks to the shale gas revolution.

“The U.S. will likely surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2013 as the largest  liquids producer in the world (crude and biofuels) due to tight oil and biofuels growth…. Russia will likely pass Saudi Arabia for the second slot in 2013 and hold that until 2023. Saudi Arabia regains the top oil producer slot by 2027,” the London-based oil and gas giant said.

“The U.S. will likely surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2013 as the largest  liquids producer in the world (crude and biofuels) due to tight oil and biofuels growth…. Russia will likely pass Saudi Arabia for the second slot in 2013 and hold that until 2023. Saudi Arabia regains the top oil producer slot by 2027,” the London-based oil and gas giant said.

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Discutiendo escenarios para América Latina: entrevista a Osvaldo Sunkel – CEPAL

Asuntos del Sur

Asuntos del Sur entrevistó a Osvaldo Sunkel, Presidente del Consejo Editorial de la Revista de CEPAL, con quien conversamos sobre los enfoques de desarrollo económico en América Latina. 

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Iran-Azerbaijan Relations: Minor Dispute, Far-Reaching Consequences?

Geopolitical Monitor

A lot has been said recently about Iran-Azerbaijani relations, which is interesting because many people assume that the relationship between these two countries doesn’t have much of an impact on the world stage. Of course, this assumption is wrong, and Iran-Azerbaijani affairs actually influence a wide variety of issues, from global energy supply to the potential for an Israeli strike on Iran.

Iranian and Azerbaijani leaders have often espoused the motto of ‘one nation, two states,’ quite like the Turkish and Azerbaijani political leaders who constantly refer to the strong bonds that exists between their respective peoples. Much has been written about the ‘natural’ relations between these two states, and many feel that the idea has been manipulated in order to play on historical and ethnic ties, rather than reflecting some kind of spontaneous expression of real solidarity.

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IEEE: Documento de opinión: Implicación y consecuencias para algunos estados de la región de la Intervención Militar en el Norte de Malí

Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos

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When Soft Power Fails

John Felfer
FPIF

 

The oldest Chinatown in the world is not in New York or San Francisco or even Yokohama. It is in Manila, a fact that comes up often when Beijing talks about its longstanding connection to the islands that lie about 600 miles to the southeast. Similarly, China boasts of its three Confucius Institutes in the Philippines where Filipinos can learn Mandarin and appreciate the many facets of Chinese culture. Since 2011, Chinoy TV has also spread the Confucius Institute message to all the Filipinos who can’t physically attend the cultural events.

Trade between the two countries, meanwhile, is expanding rapidly. In 1996, Mainland China didn’t even make it into the top ten of trade partners of the Philippines. Today, with trade volume at $30 billion, China has become number three. After a set of talks in Beijing in 2011, the two sides agreed to double this figure by 2016, which would vault China into the top spot.

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The U.S. prepares for military action in Bolivia

Nil Nikandrov
Strategic Culture

The scandal over the «scientific team from the USA» broke out, despite attempts by the U.S. Embassy in Bolivia to kill it off. In June 2012, a team of team of specialists numbering 50 people came to the country, ostensibly to study the adverse effects of high altitude on humans and their capacity for rapid recovery of their fighting ability. To avoid attracting attention, the Americans used tourist visas and passed through border control in small groups. One group of these specialists went to the Yungas area, and another group to the slopes of Mount Chacaltaya. «Tourist» trails have been laid in the border areas with Peru and Chile.

The expedition’s activities in the country continued for a few months. Only after a series of articles in the U.S. media did the Bolivian authorities begin an investigation. Vice President Alvaro Garcia stated that the actions of the U.S. «scholars» in the country were in serious doubt. Initially, they assured that they were exploring issues of human adaptation to high altitude. Then it was announced that the experiments were being carried out in the interests of the U.S. / NATO troops in Afghanistan. Wow, more than ten years into the war against the Taliban, with the deadlines for withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan approaching, the Pentagon suddenly remembered the «problem of high altitude «! Of course, after these confused explanations appeared, the assumption was made that not all those from the U.S. were scientists.

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David Cameron’s European Paradox

Henning Meyer
Social Europe

Today has probably been the most interesting day in British politics since the general election in 2010. David Cameron has delivered his long-awaited speech on what he thinks the British future in the European Union should be. In his remarks, the British Prime Minister made clear that if he was to be reelected in 2015, he would seek a major renegotiation of the terms of British EU membership. He could not be pinned down to what exactly he would like to renegotiate but only mentioned broad areas such as social and employment law. Cameron also avoided answering the question, posed to him repeatedly, what he would do if he failed to achieve what he would consider an acceptable renegotiated membership. So all in all the Prime Minister created more new questions than he provided answers.

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China urges Philippines to avoid complicating disputes

Global Times

China urged the Philippines to avoid taking any action that could complicate the South China Sea issue, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday.

The comments come after the Philippines decided to take its disputes with China to a UN tribunal.

At a daily press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said that relevant disputes should be solved through negotiations between sovereign states directly involved.

It is a consensus between China and members of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), stated in the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, or the DOC in short, Hong said.

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Michael Klare: The Next War?

Tom Dispatch

Once upon a time, former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping suggested that Asia’s Pacific powers and wannabes should “put aside differences and jointly develop resources.”  That was, of course, when China itself was still something of a wannabe and no one was talking about it becoming the world’s largest economy.  Now, it’s the rising power on planet Earth, achieving a more-than-century-old dream of returning to national greatness -- as well as an eye-blistering, health-endangering level of industrial and car pollution that has its own name, “airpocalypse.” Problem is the idea of regional cooperation turns out to have been the real dream and now, it seems, everyone in the Pacific basin has woken up.

“Jointly develop”?  What an ephemeral thought at a time when the urge to power up ever more cars and factories (sending yet more pollution, not to speak of greenhouse gases, into Asian and planetary skies) has merged with advances in drilling technology for “extreme energy.”  Together, they have made a series of previously unremarkable islets in the Pacific -- which just happen to have prospective oil and natural gas reserves under them -- look too valuable to resist claiming. So China, Japan, and various other Asian countries are insisting those bits of land are theirs and theirs alone.  Toss in that hideous imponderable national pride and, as TomDispatch regular Michael Klare points out today, you have the potential for one of the dumber, more destructive face-offs in recent history.  With its usual fabulous timing, the U.S., already heavily garrisoning parts of Asia, has jumped in with both feet, only exacerbating tensions in the region, while promising to bring more of its own weaponry to bear, and sell more of that weaponry to its allies.

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Barry Eichengreen: The Politics of Global Recovery in 2013

Project-Syndicate

DAVOS – Could 2013 be a better year for the global economy than 2012 was? The answer, in principle, is yes. In practice, however, the answer could be more depressing.

Illustration by Paul Lachine

In the United States, the pieces are in place for stronger growth. The housing market is finally recovering. The Fed has signaled that it is prepared to do more to support growth and bring down unemployment. All that other US policymakers have to do to ensure that 2013 is better than 2012 is avoid shooting themselves in the foot.

In particular, to eliminate the uncertainty that continues to depress consumption and capital spending, they need to avoid “fiscal cliffs” (now and in the future), dangerous sequester mechanisms, and the silliness surrounding the periodic approach of the debt ceiling. They also must establish a credible plan for medium-term fiscal consolidation – one that entails both higher tax revenues and expenditure reforms, but only once the economy is strong enough to handle such measures.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/political-barriers-to-economic-growth-in-2013-by-barry-eichengreen#3vZHHuCdMx8HA6BQ.99

Sostén de la economía mundial.

Federico Steinberg/Real Instituto Elcano.

El auge de las potencias emergentes es, posiblemente, el fenómeno más importante que se ha producido en la economía mundial desde la revolución industrial. Desde hace dos o tres décadas, un conjunto de países en vías de desarrollo comenzaron a hacer las cosas bien: zanjaron sus conflictos armados, mejoraron la calidad de sus instituciones, invirtieron en capital físico y humano y aprovecharon la apertura de los enormes mercados de los países avanzados para exportar, convirtiéndose así en nodos fundamentales de las cadenas de valor globales. Pasaron así de representar menos del 35% de la producción mundial a principios de los años noventa a superar el 50% en la actualidad, modificando la geografía mundial del comercio y las inversiones y dando lugar a una economía cada vez más multipolar y desoccidentalizada. Estos cambios no implican que la renta per capita en estos países se haya acercado todavía al nivel que tienen los países ricos, ni tampoco que los problemas de pobreza y desigualdad no sigan siendo importantes. Sin embargo, muchos de los ciudadanos de los países emergentes tienen desde hace años la certeza de que sus hijos vivirán mejor que ellos, algo de lo que los europeos y los estadounidenses ya no están tan seguros.

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World Economic Forum: Global Risks 2013

WEF.

 

The world is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2013 report. This is one of the key findings of a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, government and academia, who were polled on how they expect 50 global risks to play out over the next ten years. The results fed into an analysis of three major risk cases: Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience, Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World and The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health. The report also includes a special chapter on resilience as well as a section on  “X Factors” – emerging concerns with unknown consequences.

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Link al reporte.

Mali rebels advance despite French airstrikes

Al Jazeera.

Rebels have grabbed more territory in Mali, inching closer to the capital despite intensive aerial bombardments by French warplanes, French and Malian authorities have said.

The al-Qaeda-linked rebels overran the garrison village of Diabaly in central Mali, France's defence minister said in Paris on Monday.

Jean-Yves Le Drian said the rebels "took Diabaly after fierce fighting and resistance from the Malian army that couldn't hold them back"'.

The Malian military is in disarray and has let many towns fall with barely a shot fired since the insurgency began almost a year ago in the northwest African nation.

French military forces, who began battling in Mali on Friday, widened their aerial bombing campaign against the rebels occupying northern Mali, launching airstrikes for the first time in central Mali to combat the new threat.

Al Jazeera's correspondent Nazanine Moshiri, reporting from the capital Bamako, said: "There are reports of about 60 fighters being killed thus far while Doctors without Borders say they are very concerned about the lives of civilians in the region."

The rebels, who come from several nations besides Mali, had been bottled up in the narrow neck of central Mali. But by now sweeping in from the west, they are now only 400km from Bamako, in southern Mali.

Before France sent its forces in on Friday, the closest known spot the rebels were to the capital was 680km away, although they might have infiltrated closer than that.

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Rusia realizará maniobras navales cerca de las costas de Siria

RIA Novosti.

La Flota rusa del mar Negro realizará maniobras cerca de las costas de Siria en el marco de los preparativos de los ejercicios navales que desarrollará el grupo interflota en los mares Negro y Mediterráneo, comunicó hoy el Ministerio de Defensa de Rusia.

"El grupo táctico de la Flota del mar Negro encabezado por el crucero lanzamisiles 'Moskva' realizará maniobras en la parte este del Mediterráneo", indica el comunicado.

Los navíos rusos ya se dirigen hacia el lugar de las maniobras, agrega la nota.

Según se informó con anterioridad, los ejercicios del grupo interflota de la Marina rusa se desarrollarán a finales de enero con la participación de las Flotas del Norte, Pacífico, Báltico y mar Negro.

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The Great Oil Swindle

Foreign Policy in Focus.

Headlines about 2012’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) from the International Energy Agency (IEA), released mid-November, would lead you to think we are literally swimming in oil. 

The report forecasts that the United States will outstrip Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2017, becoming "all but self-sufficient in net terms" in energy production—a notion reported almost verbatim by media agencies worldwide, from BBC News to Bloomberg. Going even further, Damien Carrington, Head of Environment at the Guardian, titled his blog: "IEA report reminds us peak oil idea has gone up in flames."

The IEA report's general conclusions have been echoed by several other reports this year. Exxon Mobil's 2013 Energy Outlook projects that demand for gas will grow by 65 percent through 2040, with 20 percent of worldwide production from North America, mostly from unconventional sources. The shale gas revolution will make the United States a net exporter by 2025, it concludes. The U.S. National Intelligence Council also predicts U.S. energy independence by 2030.

This past summer saw a similar chorus of headlines around the release of a Harvard University report by Leonardo Maugeri, a former executive with the Italian oil major Eni. "We were wrong on peak oil," read environmentalist George Monbiot's Guardian headline. "There's enough to fry us all." Monbiot's piece echoed a spate of earlier stories. In the preceding month, the BBC had asked "Shortages: Is 'Peak Oil' Idea Dead?” The Wall Street Journal pondered, "Has Peak Oil Peaked?", while the New York Time's leading environmental columnist, Andrew Revkin, took "A Fresh Look At Oil's Long Goodbye".

The gist of all this is that "peak oil" is now nothing but an irrelevant meme, out of touch with the data, and soundly disproven by the now self-evident abundance of cheap unconventional oil and gas.

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U.S. Congress: Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012

Govtrack.us

One Hundred Twelfth Congress

of the

United States of America

AT THE SECOND SESSION

Begun and held at the City of Washington on Tuesday,

the third day of January, two thousand and twelve

An Act

To provide for a comprehensive strategy to counter Iran’s growing hostile presence and activity in the Western Hemisphere, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the ‘Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012’.

SEC. 2. FINDINGS.

Congress finds the following:

(1) The United States has vital political, economic, and security interests in the Western Hemisphere.
(2) Iran is pursuing cooperation with Latin American countries by signing economic and security agreements in order to create a network of diplomatic and economic relationships to lessen the blow of international sanctions and oppose Western attempts to constrict its ambitions.
(3) According to the Department of State, Hezbollah, with Iran as its state sponsor, is considered the ‘most technically capable terrorist group in the world’ with ‘thousands of supporters, several thousand members, and a few hundred terrorist operatives,’ and officials from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qods Force have been working in concert with Hezbollah for many years.
(4) The IRGC’s Qods Force has a long history of supporting Hezbollah’s military, paramilitary, and terrorist activities, providing it with guidance, funding, weapons, intelligence, and logistical support, and in 2007, the Department of the Treasury placed sanctions on the IRGC and its Qods Force for their support of terrorism and proliferation activities.
(5) The IRGC’s Qods Force stations operatives in foreign embassies, charities, and religious and cultural institutions to foster relationships, often building on existing socioeconomic ties with the well established Shia Diaspora, and recent years have witnessed an increased presence in Latin America.
(6) According to the Department of Defense, the IRGC and its Qods Force played a significant role in some of the deadliest terrorist attacks of the past two decades, including the 1994 attack on the AMIA Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, by generally directing or supporting the groups that actually executed the attacks.
(7) Reports of Iranian intelligence agents being implicated in Hezbollah-linked activities since the early 1990s suggest direct Iranian government support of Hezbollah activities in the Tri-Border Area of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, and in the past decade, Iran has dramatically increased its diplomatic missions to Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Argentina, and Brazil. Iran has built 17 cultural centers in Latin America, and it currently maintains 11 embassies, up from 6 in 2005.
(8) Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies with a presence in Latin America have raised revenues through illicit activities, including drug and arms trafficking, counterfeiting, money laundering, forging travel documents, pirating software and music, and providing haven and assistance to other terrorists transiting the region.
(9) Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela expressed their intention to assist Iran in evading sanctions by signing a statement supporting Iran’s nuclear activities and announcing at a 2010 joint press conference in Tehran their determination to ‘continue and expand their economic ties to Iran’ with confidence that ‘Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and sanctions imposed by the West and imperialism’.
(10) The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration concluded in 2008 that almost one-half of the foreign terrorist organizations in the world are linked to narcotics trade and trafficking, including Hezbollah and Hamas.
(11) In October 2011, the United States charged two men, Manssor Arbabsiar, a United States citizen holding both Iranian and United States passports, and Gholam Shakuri, an Iran-based member of Iran’s IRGC Qods Force, with conspiracy to murder a foreign official using explosives in an act of terrorism. Arbabsiar traveled to Mexico with the express intent to hire ‘someone in the narcotics business’ to carry out the assassination of the Saudi Arabian Ambassador in the United States. While in the end, he only engaged a U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency informant posing as an associate of a drug trafficking cartel, Arbabsiar believed that he was working with a member of a Mexican drug trafficking organization and sought to send money to this individual in installments and not in a single transfer.
(12) In February 2011, actions by the Department of the Treasury effectively shut down the Lebanese Canadian Bank. Subsequent actions by the United States Government in connection with the investigation into Lebanese Canadian Bank resulted in the indictment in December 2011 of Ayman Joumaa, an individual of Lebanese nationality, with citizenship in Lebanon and Colombia, and with ties to Hezbollah, for trafficking cocaine to the Los Zetas drug trafficking organization in Mexico City for sale in the United States and for laundering the proceeds.

SEC. 3. STATEMENT OF POLICY.

It shall be the policy of the United States to use a comprehensive government-wide strategy to counter Iran’s growing hostile presence and activity in the Western Hemisphere by working together with United States allies and partners in the region to mutually deter threats to United States interests by the Government of Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the IRGC’s Qods Force, and Hezbollah.

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Task Force Report (TFR): Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations

CFR

Overview

 

July 12, 2011—Over the course of a generation, Brazil has emerged as both a driver of growth in South America and as an active force in world politics. A new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)-sponsored Independent Task Force report asserts "that it is in the interest of the United States to understand Brazil as a complex international actor whose influence on the defining global issues of the day is only likely to increase."

Brazil currently ranks as the world's fifth-largest landmass and fifth-largest population, and it expects to soon be ranked the fifth-largest economy. The report, Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, recommends that "U.S. policymakers recognize Brazil's standing as a global actor, treat its emergence as an opportunity for the United States, and work with Brazil to develop complementary policies."

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Oscar Ugarteche: La privatización de la gobernanza global

IADE

Desde comienzos del siglo XXI las Naciones Unidas y sus organismos se han visto debilitados. La Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) creada en 1992 se volvió tan irrelevante como la Liga de las Naciones.

Por eso, Estados Unidos sustituyó un régimen multilateral por otro internacional bilateral y cambió los instrumentos de la OMC con Tratados de Libre Comercio y Tratados Bilaterales de Inversión, guiando a otros países a hacer lo mismo. De este modo, por ejemplo, la OMC se ha vuelto decorativa en la estructura de la gobernanza mundial.

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Former National Sec. Adv. Brzezinski on whether defense contractors are behind Hagel criticism

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Venezuela: Asesor de Rousseff afirma que Chávez tiene 180 días para asumir en Venezuela

Infolatam

El asesor especial de Asuntos Internacionales de la Presidencia de Brasil, Marco Aurelio García, afirmó hoy que según la Constitución venezolana el presidente de ese país, Hugo Chávez, tiene un plazo de 90 días, prorrogables por otros 90, para asumir un nuevo mandato al frente del Gobierno.

García, quien pasó el 31 de diciembre y el 1 de enero en La Habana para enterarse sobre la salud del mandatario, internado desde el mes pasado en la capital cubana, explicó que ese plazo se otorga cuando no es declarada la “imposibilidad” para asumir la Presidencia venezolana, según informó la estatal Agencia Brasil.

En caso contrario, con una eventual muerte del gobernante o declarada la imposibilidad de asumir, la Asamblea (Parlamento) deberá convocar a nuevas elecciones en un plazo de 30 días. Chávez, de 58 años y desde 1999 en el poder, fue operado el 11 de diciembre en Cuba por cuarta vez desde que en junio de 2011 se le diagnosticó un cáncer de cuya naturaleza no se ha informado.

Tras esta última operación se presentaron diversas complicaciones, por lo que aún sigue hospitalizado en La Habana cuando falta menos de una semana para la fecha -10 de enero- en que debe asumir un nuevo mandato presidencial de seis años.

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Geopolitics keeps oil markets tense

Syed Rashid Husain
Saudi Gazette

A New Year has begun – and how different this promises to be!

Global energy kaleidoscope has in the meantime undergone complete metamorphosis. Its dynamics have changed drastically, impacting the market psyche, so important and the determining factor in crude markets. 2012 was a different world, a different era, in some senses. Both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil were above $100 per barrel then, reaching a peak in early March of just over $125 per barrel for Brent and almost $110 per barrel for WTI. Positive economic news leading to stronger oil demand and worries about supply disruptions linked to Iran’s nuclear program contributed to firmer prices. Demand from emerging markets was still strong, and numerous supply-side risks, on account of geopolitical issues, were contributing significantly to firmer markets.

Brent prices had already gained by about 16 percent in 2011, with New York Mercantile Exchange gasoline prices up about 15.7 percent. Nymex West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 7.8 percent in the year. SEB Commodity Research, part of the Swedish bank SEB Merchant Banking, at the beginning of 2012 had said crude oil prices should remain at elevated levels during the year, with Brent prices projected to be around $114 a barrel.

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Nationalism Rises in Northeast Asia

Yale Global.

Since the end of the 20^th century Northeast Asia has emerged as a central force in globalization of the world. But the specter of rising nationalism in the area now threatens to undo the gains that global interdependence has brought to the region and to the world.

“The most important strategic choice the Chinese made was to embrace economic globalization rather than detach themselves from it,” wrote leading Chinese reformer and economist Zheng Bijian  in his seminal article for Foreign Affairs, “China’s Peaceful Rise,” in October 2005, a reference to the reform program launched in the late 1970s by Deng Xiaoping. The speed, intensity and breadth of that embrace have transformed the planet.

The first country in Northeast Asia that recognized the imperative of “embracing globalization” was Japan in the late 19^th century. Detached in the 1930s, by the 1950s and 1960s Japan was reengaged with the global market economy, providing low-cost, high-quality goods and building up well-known global brands.

Then followed South Korea, which under military dictator Park Chung-hee, 1961 to 1979, embarked on a highly successful export-driven growth strategy. South Korea is the only sizeable developing nation to have risen from deep poverty to first world prosperity.

Today, China, Japan and Korea, respectively the world’s second, third and eleventh biggest economies, are significant global economic powers. Collectively they reflect one of the profoundest changes in the 21^st century global economy: the emergence of global supply chains. The Apple iPhone, iPod or iPad may be American designs and brands assembled by a Taiwanese company in China, hence labeled “assembled in China,” but the devices also contain vital parts, components and technological knowhow from Korea, Japan and many other countries. Billions of consumers worldwide depend on and benefit from products emanating from the Northeast Asian–based supply-chain.

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Pakistani soldier killed in border clashes with Indian troops

The Telegraph.

Islamabad accused Indian soldiers of crossing the Line of Control and attacking a military post, an accusation denied by New Delhi.

The exchanges mark the latest flare-up in a dispute that extends back to independence and is responsible for two wars between the two neighbours.

It marks a serious test for relations that have improved during the past year, with a new relaxed visa regime and the first cricket series between the two countries since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, which finished on Sunday.

The Pakistani military said Indian troops came across the frontier in the Haji Pir sector, about 50 miles north of Islamabad, and "physically raided" a check post named Sawan Patra.

"Pakistan Army troops effectively responded to the attack successfully. One Pakistani soldier embraced martyrdom while another was critically injured," it said in a statement, adding that the Indian troops left behind a gun and a dagger after retreating.

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Jim O'Neill: Mundo emergente en ascenso

Project Syndicate.

Ahora que las cuestiones de liderazgo en Estados Unidos y China se han dirimido, finalmente podemos elaborar las perspectivas económicas para 2013 sabiendo quién moverá la palanca en materia de políticas en las dos principales economías del mundo. ¿Qué harán -y, quizá más importante, qué les harán a ellos las fuerzas económicas?

Para empezar, Estados Unidos enfrentará desafíos recurrentes con el "abismo fiscal" hasta que los mercados financieros presionen a los responsables de las políticas para que implementen una reducción más radical del déficit. Pero, a pesar de esto y de las decepciones que se pueden generar en materia de crecimiento, el año 2013 será un año más fuerte para la economía global de lo que muchos esperan. 

En 2011, China aportó al mundo 1,3 billones de dólares en PBI adicional, algo así como crear otra Grecia cada 12 semanas y media, o casi otra España todos los años. Juntos, los cuatro países que conforman el bloque BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) aportaron aproximadamente 2,2 billones de dólares en 2012, el equivalente a otra Italia cada año. (A pesar de sus problemas, Italia sigue siendo la octava economía más grande del mundo, y lo seguirá siendo durante por lo menos un par de años, hasta que Rusia e India puedan superarla).

Para empezar, Estados Unidos enfrentará desafíos recurrentes con el "abismo fiscal" hasta que los mercados financieros presionen a los responsables de las políticas para que implementen una reducción más radical del déficit. Pero, a pesar de esto y de las decepciones que se pueden generar en materia de crecimiento, el año 2013 será un año más fuerte para la economía global de lo que muchos esperan. 

En 2011, China aportó al mundo 1,3 billones de dólares en PBI adicional, algo así como crear otra Grecia cada 12 semanas y media, o casi otra España todos los años. Juntos, los cuatro países que conforman el bloque BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) aportaron aproximadamente 2,2 billones de dólares en 2012, el equivalente a otra Italia cada año. (A pesar de sus problemas, Italia sigue siendo la octava economía más grande del mundo, y lo seguirá siendo durante por lo menos un par de años, hasta que Rusia e India puedan superarla).

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Decades of German Pacifism Yield to Bigger Military Role

The New York Times.

When Chancellor Angela Merkel hosted a recent reception for military families, she greeted parents, wives and children whose loved ones were spending their holidays in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Kosovo and off the Horn of Africa. German deployments overseas, Ms. Merkel said, “will soon encompass the entire globe.” 

On that same wintry afternoon, members of Parliament debated whether to add to the nearly 6,000 German troops currently serving abroad by sending up to 400 soldiers to Turkey, where they would operate two Patriot missile batteries to help protect their NATO ally from a potential escalation of the civil war across the border in Syria. 

“For decades, we Germans have benefited from the fact that our partners gave us the feeling of reliable security,” Thomas de Maizière, Germany’s defense minister, said during the debate last month. “Now we are in a position and have the duty, even, to make our impact felt.” 

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Las fuerzas sociales y políticas en Ecuador en las vísperas de las elecciones de 2013

Francois Houtart/ALAI.

Como en todos los países latinoamericanos, los periodos de elección concentran la atención sobre el campo político y paralizan gran parte de otras actividades, o las instrumentalizan en función de la coyuntura. Ciertamente la dimensión política es importante en un periodo de cambios profundos. Estos últimos pueden ser orientados en distintas direcciones, por lo general significativas en la vida de los pueblos. Esto se comprobó en las elecciones de 2012, en Venezuela, con la reelección de Hugo Chávez Frías. La continuación del proyecto bolivariano estaba condicionada por el resultado electoral. Las transformaciones estructurales en los campos sociales y económicos necesitan tiempo, y para realizarlas no es suficiente un solo periodo electoral. Requieren apoyo popular y no significa necesariamente que el mismo actor esté en el poder. Las circunstancias que prevalecen en cada país determinan las soluciones.

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Venezuela: Maduro confirma contactos con EEUU

El Nuevo Herald.

El vicepresidente de Venezuela confirmó el viernes que en tres ocasiones un emisario del presidente Hugo Chávez conversó con funcionarios estadounidenses en procura de mejorar la relación y comentó que espera que se logré ese fin tal y como se logró con otros gobiernos con los que se tienen grandes diferencias ideológicas y políticas.

"Sobre la relación con el gobierno de los Estados Unidos, ya ayer (jueves) informábamos una parte. Efectivamente a finales del mes de noviembre con autorización expresa del comandante presidente, el embajador nuestro ante la OEA, Roy Chaderton, tuvo algunas conversaciones con algunos funcionarios del gobierno de Estados Unidos, conversaciones que pudiéramos llamarlas normales donde se intercambiaron criterios de lo que es la relación actual", dijo el vicepresidente Nicolás Maduro en una entrevista difundida por la estatal Venezolana de Televisión.

"Nosotros les ratificamos (a Estados Unidos) la necesidad de que haya una relación de respeto absoluto del proceso revolucionario y democrático venezolano, ellos ratificaron sus criterios", comentó Maduro, quien ha rechazado que esos contactos estuviesen vinculados a una posible transferencia de poder si el mandatario Hugo Chávez no puede reasumir el poder debido a su delicado estado de salud después de ser operado por cáncer en Cuba. 

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Read more here: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2013/01/04/1377544/venezuela-maduro-confirma-contactos.html#storylink=cpy

Venezuela: Prospects fading for truly revolutionary change

Nikolas Kozloff/Al Jazeera.

Even if Hugo Chavez survives a serious bout of cancer or his preferred successor Nicolas Maduro comes to power, the possibility of promoting truly revolutionary change in Venezuela is now dimming. Indeed, from the very outset of his populist rule Chavez has pursued a very heterodox political revolution, if one can even call it that. While at times the government has allowed for so-called "participatory democracy", such measures have more often than not been cancelled out by centralising tendencies at the top and the perils of charismatic leadership.  

If Chavez or Foreign Minister Maduro were serious about carrying out authentic revolutionary change, they would have devised a drastic plan to dismantle the petro state with its bloated patronage networks and bureaucracy and handover true power to the people. Unfortunately, Chavez has only gone so far with his "Bolivarian Revolution", choosing instead to limit the scope of reform lest he lose coveted political control.  

To be sure, during the last presidential election Chavez campaigned on a platform of socialist change. To his credit, the firebrand Venezuelan leader allowed for public debate on his 2013-2019 Plan, which, in the words of the President, is designed to "make the revolution irreversible". Under the programme, Venezuela will ostensibly undertake profound and systemic change intended to replace the trappings of bourgeois democracy with the communal state.  

On the surface at least, the plan sounds progressive as it will transfer a great degree of power and resources from state governors and mayors to so-called communes or communal councils.  

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Joseph Stiglitz: Un año al límite

Project-Syndicate

NUEVA YORK – El año 2012 resultó tan malo como me lo había imaginado. La recesión en Europa fue la consecuencia predecible (y predicha) de sus políticas de austeridad y de un marco para el euro condenado al fracaso. La anémica recuperación estadounidense –con un crecimiento apenas suficiente para crear empleo para los nuevos ingresantes a la fuerza de trabajo– fue la consecuencia predecible (y predicha) de la parálisis política, que bloqueó la promulgación de la ley de empleo del presidente Barack Obama y envió a la economía hacia un «precipicio fiscal».

Illustration by Paul Lachine

Las dos principales sorpresas fueron la desaceleración en los mercados emergentes, ligeramente más profunda y extendida que lo previsto, y la adopción europea de algunas reformas verdaderamente excepcionales –aunque no suficientes.

Una mirada hacia 2013 muestra que los mayores riesgos están en EE. UU. y Europa. China, por el contrario, tiene los instrumentos, recursos, incentivos y conocimiento necesarios para evitar un aterrizaje forzoso económico –y, a diferencia de los países occidentales, carece de partidarios comprometidos con ideas letales como la «austeridad expansiva».

 

Leer más en http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/risky-europe-and-america-in-2013-by-joseph-e--stiglitz/spanish#SGFyKqPVYb9kSwiW.99

Morales diz que estado de saúde de Chávez é preocupante

Agencia-Brasil

Brasília – O presidente da Bolívia, Evo Morales, admitiu que o estado de saúde do presidente da Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, é “preocupante”. Mas Morales disse que espera que as orações pedindo pela melhora de Chávez tenham efeito e ajudem a reverter o quadro. Morales e Chávez são amigos e parceiros comerciais. Há quase um mês, o venezuelano está em Cuba para tratamento de combate ao câncer. No próximo dia 10, está marcada a cerimônia de posse de Chávez. 

"A situação é muito preocupante. Eu tenho conversado com a família [do presidente venezuelano]. Também tenho me comunicado com o vice-presidente [da Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro]. Tem sido difícil, mas espero que as nossas orações e os nossos ritos sejam eficientes para salvar a vida do irmão presidente Chávez", disse Morales, em Cochabamba.

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Iranian Potential and the Caspian Disputes

The Oil Drum

As we come to the end of the year, Leanan continues to point to the many stories that now fill the media reporting on the perception that the time to worry about peak oil is over. However, as Darwinian perceptively points out, the global supply of oil (crude and condensate) is not going up with the celerity that most commentators are envisaging.

Figure 1. EIA reported global crude and condensate production through September 2012, (Darwinian at The Oil Drum)

The global balance between available supply and demand is in a balance, where the amount of oil remaining available to meet a surge in market demand is quite small. OPEC (and largely Saudi Arabia), by adjusting their production, ensures that the balance is maintained and prices remain at a level with which they are comfortable.

In the December 19th TWIP, the EIA has explained, without endorsing the statement that the US might surpass Saudi Arabia in global fuel production, why that is a less important statistic than folk are generally making it out to be.

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