Project Syndicate
LONDON – As Olympic mania
swept the world in recent weeks, it transported the host country, Great
Britain, to a rare display of public exultation. Indeed, the successes
of “Team GB” produced an upsurge of patriotic rejoicing akin to victory
in war. Britain finished third in the gold medal count, behind the
United States and China, much larger countries, but ahead of Russia,
which traditionally competes with America for first place.
So,
what is the secret of Olympic success? The acquisition of medals,
precisely because it gives so much satisfaction, has become the object
of scientific inquiry and national endeavor. Before the 2012 Games, the Financial Times
combined four economic models to produce the following “consensus”
prediction of gold medals (the actual results are in brackets): 1.
United States, 39 (46); 2. China, 37 (38); 3. Great Britain, 24 (29); 4.
Russia, 12 (24); 5. South Korea, 12 (13); and 6. Germany, 9 (11). The
gold medal rankings and overall medal placement (gold, silver, and
bronze) were correctly predicted in all cases.
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