When it comes to energy and economics in the climate-change era,
nothing is what it seems. Most of us believe (or want to believe) that
the second carbon era, the Age of Oil, will soon be superseded by the
Age of Renewables, just as oil had long since superseded the Age of
Coal. President Obama offered exactly this vision in a much-praised June address
on climate change. True, fossil fuels will be needed a little bit
longer, he indicated, but soon enough they will be overtaken by
renewable forms of energy.
Many other experts share this view, assuring us that increased
reliance on "clean" natural gas combined with expanded investments in
wind and solar power will permit a smooth transition to a green energy
future in which humanity will no longer be pouring carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. All this sounds promising
indeed. There is only one fly in the ointment: it is not,
in fact, the path we are presently headed down. The energy industry is
not investing in any significant way in renewables. Instead, it is
pouring its historic profits into new fossil-fuel projects, mainly
involving the exploitation of what are called "unconventional" oil and
gas reserves.
The result is indisputable: humanity is not entering
a period that will be dominated by renewables. Instead, it is
pioneering the third great carbon era, the Age of Unconventional Oil and
Gas.
