Argentina Court Freezes Chevron’s Assets: Penalty for Polluting the Amazon in Ecuador

Global Research

Adrian Elcuj Miranda, a judge in Buenos Aires, has ordered the seizure of Chevron’s assets in Argentina, to force the company to pay a $19 billion penalty for polluting the Amazon in Ecuador. The plaintiffs are seeking similar legal action in Brazil, Canada, Colombia and other countries.

Chevron – a Northern California-based oil and gas company – merged with another company named Texaco in 2001 whose actions are the basis of the lawsuit. Between 1964 and 1992 Texaco admitted to dumping more than 16 billion gallons of toxic “water of formation” into the streams and rivers of the Ecuadorean Amazon that were used by local inhabitants for their drinking water sickening indigenous tribespeople and farmers.

Some 900 open-air toxic waste pits still dot the area, where approximately 9,000 people are expected to contract cancer unless it is cleaned up, according to a study by Dr. Daniel Rourke, former of the Rand Corporation.

An initial lawsuit was filed by Ecuador’s indigenous communities in 1993. At the time the company asked for a trial in Ecuador to avoid a U.S. court battle. A second lawsuit was filed in 2003 by Fajardo and Luis Manza on behalf of 30,000 Ecuadoreans.

Link

Over the Cliff We Go

J. Bradford DeLong
Project Syndicate

BERKELEY – Unless something unexpected happens, the United States’ many legislated reductions in taxes over the past 12 years – all of which have been explicitly temporary – will expire simultaneously at the start of 2013. American tax rates will revert overnight to their Clinton-era levels.

Illustration by Tim Brinton

Some of these reductions were implemented to fight what was seen four years ago as a temporary downturn. Although their supporters wanted to make them permanent, claiming that they were temporary allowed for the circumvention of procedural requirements in the legislative process that Democrats had created in a vain effort to guarantee fiscal sanity.

The immediate increase in tax rates is only part of the story. At the same time, automatic reductions in the defense budget and “discretionary” domestic spending – agreed to by both Democrats and Republicans in the summer of 2011 – will take effect.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/what-comes-after-the-fiscal-cliff-by-j--bradford-delong#09pAoOmCXlcrFZVV.99

Colombia supera el millón de barriles de petróleo por día

RT

Link

A New Chinese Threat Against U.S. Aircraft Carriers?

Asian Defense

For the third time in 7 years (first one being in 2005, second earlier in 2012) several websites in China (link in Chinese) are reporting that China and Russia have agreed for Beijing to buy the production line for the Tupolev Tu-22M3 bomber at a cost of 1.5 billion USD.

Once in service with the Chinese Naval Air Forces the Tu-22M3 will be known as the “H-10″.
The deal struck with Russia comes with 36 aircraft (and engines): an initial batch of 12 followed by a second batch of 24 aircraft are thought to be on order.

The Tu-22 will be employed in the maritime attack role and will be used to attack targets from low level (to avoid radar detection).

Link

Robert Skidelsky: Modelos con mal comportamiento

Project-Syndicate

LONDRES – «¿Cómo es que nadie vio venir la crisis?» Fue la pregunta de la reina Elizabeth II a los economistas durante una visita a la London School of Economics a fines de 2008. Cuatro años después, la reiterada incapacidad de los analistas para predecir la profundidad y duración de la crisis hubiese dado lugar a otra pregunta de la reina: ¿por qué se sobreestima la recuperación?

Illustration by Paul Lachine

Consideremos los hechos. En su pronóstico de 2011, el Fondo Monetario Internacional predijo que la economía europea crecería el 2,1 % en 2012. De hecho, parece más que probable que este año se reduzca el 0,2 %. En el Reino Unido, el pronóstico de 2010 de la Oficina para la Responsabilidad Presupuestaria (ORP) proyectó un crecimiento del 2,6 % en 2011 y del 2,8 % en 2012; de hecho, la economía del RU creció el 0,9 % en 2011 y se mantendrá sin cambios en 2012. La última previsión de la OCDE para el PBI de la zona del euro en 2012 es el 2,3 % menor que la de 2010. 

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-forecasts-of-economic-recovery-have-been-wrong-by-robert-skidelsky/spanish#CZg8FM2bG6yt5ysp.99

Brasil é elogiado por embaixadores árabes pelo empenho em favor da Palestina

Agencia-Brasil

Brasília – O governo do Brasil foi elogiado pelos embaixadores da Palestina em Brasília, Ibrahim Mohamed Khalil Alzeben, e do Sudão, Abd Elghani Elnaim Awad Elkarim, em nome das autoridades árabes. O emissário do Brasil para o Oriente Médio mais a Turquia e o Irã, embaixador Cesário Melantonio Neto, defendeu o direito da Palestina à autodeterminação e o fim dos assentamentos israelenses em Jerusalém Oriental e na Cisjordânia.

“A resolução [da Organização das Nações Unidas] ficou, infelizmente, apenas na condição de Estado observador [no caso da Palestina]. Temos que dar o próximo passo”, disse Melantonio Neto, durante jantar oferecido ontem (18) pelos embaixadores árabes no Brasil, referindo-se à decisão da ONU do final de novembro que aprovou o novo status palestino perante a organização.

Link

2012 marks new stage in China-LatAm ties

Global Times

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to four Latin American countries and a China-Latin America business summit were two events in 2012 that marked a new stage in Sino-Latin American ties.

In June, Wen visited Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile and delivered a speech at the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in Santiago, unveiling a convincing and promising agenda to institutionally consolidate mutually beneficial ties between China and Latin America.

Wen's idea was, in short, that the 21st century marks the beginning of a new period of rapid development in relations between China and the region. The relations show sound momentum of all-dimensional, wide-ranging and multi-tiered growth.

Link

Robert D Kaplan: The geopolitics of shale

Stratfor

According to the elite newspapers and journals of opinion, the future of foreign affairs mainly rests on ideas: the moral impetus for humanitarian intervention, the various theories governing exchange rates and debt rebalancing necessary to fix Europe, the rise of cosmopolitanism alongside the stubborn vibrancy of nationalism in East Asia and so on. In other words, the world of the future can be engineered and defined based on doctoral theses. And to a certain extent this may be true. As the 20th century showed us, ideologies -- whether communism, fascism or humanism -- matter and matter greatly.

Read more: The Geopolitics of Shale | Stratfor

What’s Behind America’s Gun Violence

Jack Smith
Global Research

There is more than the act of one individual involved in the mass gun killings that take place in America— the most recent being the massacre of 20 young children and seven school workers at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., Dec. 14.

The main culprit, of course, is the late killer, Adam Lanza, 20.

But such events occur within a context of shared responsibility for the unparalleled number of mass and individual shooting deaths that take place in the United States every year. This includes the political system and politicians, the National Rifle Association and other gun lobbies, and federal, state and local governments. Each has played an indirect role in the latest and earlier slaughters.

Link

Energía del futuro será la misma del siglo XIX

Infobae

El carbón, principal responsable de los gases de efecto invernadero, superará al petróleo dentro de 10 años, según una estimación de la Agencia Internacional de Energía

Crédito foto: AFP

Según la AIE, el consumo de carbón en 2017 será de 4.320 millones de toneladas equivalente petróleo, frente a 4.400 millones de toneladas de petróleo. Y dentro de una década superaría al crudo debido al crecimiento de gigantescos mercados emergentes como China e India, de acuerdo al estudio.

"Gracias a abundantes recursos y a una insaciable demanda de electricidad de los mercados emergentes, el carbón representó cerca de la mitad del aumento de la demanda mundial de energía en la primera década del siglo 21", destaca la AIE.

Link

US and UK refuse to sign UN's communications treaty

BBC.

The US, Canada, Australia and UK have refused to sign an international communications treaty at an conference in Dubai.

The countries had objected to calls for all states to have equal rights to the governance of the internet.

But the breaking point was the addition of text relating to "human rights".

It marks a setback for the UN's International Telecommunication Union (ITU) which had said it was sure it could deliver consensus.

"It's with a heavy heart and a sense of missed opportunities that the US must communicate that it's not able to sign the agreement in the current form," said Terry Kramer the US ambassador to the World Conference on International Telecommunications (Wcit).

"The internet has given the world unimaginable economic and social benefit during these past 24 years."

Negotiators from Denmark, Italy, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Greece, Portugal, Finland, Chile, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Costa Rica and Kenya have said they would need to consult with their national governments about how to proceed and would also not be able to sign the treaty as planned on Friday.

Link.

The Interview: Stephen M. Walt

The Diplomat.

Stephen M. Walt discusses American alliances in Asia, U.S. - China relations, Iran and more.

The Diplomat's Zachary Keck spoke with Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government Professor Stephen M. Walt. 

You have written a lot about alliances in your academic work. I am wondering how important you believe alliances will be in U.S. Asia Policy as Washington seeks to deepen its commitment to the region in the years and decades ahead?

Alliances will be central to America’s Asia policy.   The United States is a hegemon in the Western Hemisphere, but our ability to operate in other theatres — including Asia — depends on support from allies.  Furthermore, given that our main strategic goal in Asia is to maintain a regional balance of power, supporting key allies is an inescapable element of our entire approach.

 

Link.

Japan Scrambles Jets in Islands Dispute With China

The New York Times.

A Chinese military surveillance plane entered what Japan considers its airspace near disputed islands on Thursday, the Japanese Defense Ministry said, an escalation in an already tense standoff over the territory. Japan scrambled fighter jets in response, but the Chinese plane left before they arrived, according to Japanese authorities. 

The ministry said the plane’s incursion was the first known violation of Japanese airspace by a Chinese plane since it began keeping records about 50 years ago. China considers the airspace its own, because it is laying claim to the islands that Japan has controlled for decades. 

Tokyo lodged a formal protest with Beijing, which swiftly retorted that it was the Japanese who had encroached. 

In Beijing, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, said that the activities of the Chinese plane were “completely normal.” 

“China requires the Japanese side stop illegal activities in the waters and airspace of the Diaoyu Islands,” Mr. Hong said. 

The episode comes just ahead of Japanese elections in which conservatives pushing for a more robust military to counter China’s rise are in the lead. 

For months, patrol ships from the two countries have sporadically faced off near the islands known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, exchanging protests over loudspeakers that each is infringing on the other’s sovereignty. Recently, Chinese ships have sailed near the islands more regularly in what analysts in Japan interpret as a new strategy by China, either trying to wear down Japan’s resolve or to use the patrols to bolster its claims that it is protecting the islands and therefore is in charge. 

It was unclear on Thursday whether the plane’s flight might have been part of such a strategy. This week, China appeared to increase the pressure on Japan by sending a flotilla of navy ships near the islands, instead of the maritime surveillance ships it sent before. 

Link.

U.S. will send 400 troops to Turkey

LA Times.

The U.S. will send two batteries of Patriot missiles and 400 troops to Turkey as part of a NATO force meant to protect Turkish territory from potential Syrian missile attack, the Pentagon said Friday.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta signed a deployment order en route to Turkey from Afghanistan calling for 400 U.S. soldiers to operate two batteries of Patriots at undisclosed locations in Turkey, Pentagon press secretary George Little told reporters flying with Panetta.

Germany and the Netherlands have already agreed to provide two batteries of the U.S.-built defense systems and send up to 400 German and 360 Dutch troops to man them, bringing the total number of Patriot batteries slated for Turkey to six. The German Parliament is expected to formally agree to the deployment on Friday. NATO foreign ministers endorsed Turkey's request for the Patriots on Nov. 30.

A number of Syrian shells have landed in Turkish territory since the conflict in the Arab state began in March 2011. Turkey has condemned the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad, supported Syrian rebels and provided shelter to Syrian refugees. Ankara is particularly worried that Assad may get desperate enough to use chemical weapons. 

Link.

Integración suramericana: Temas estratégicos

ALAI.

Cuando en América del Sur se promueve una integración y unidad regional de largo plazo y de carácter multidimensional, se replantea el debate político sobre el desarrollo, centrado en aspectos como soberanía, recursos naturales y biogenéticos, o la biodiversidad. A estos temas se dedica la edición 480-481 (noviembre-diciembre) de la revista "América Latina en Movimiento".

Link.

 

Link a la revista.

 

Hubert Vedrine: Decline Is a Choice

Foreign Policy.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was supposed to mark both the "end of history" and the birth of an international community founded on the universal acceptance of Western values -- a world in which "market democracy" was the norm. Instead, the West has suffered a litany of disappointments -- from costly wars to financial crises to the rise of non-Western powers -- that has left it deeply disillusioned. Far from a cooperative, rule-based order, the contemporary world is a place of vast, permanent competition -- a muddled melee among regional poles, countries, governments, businesses, banks, financial funds, rating agencies, producers, consumers, individuals, international media, and criminal organizations, if not also between "civilizations." This competition continues even in the forums that are supposed to regulate it: the World Trade Organization, the G-20, and others.

After the end of the Cold War, those in the West with universalist sensibilities -- particularly in Europe -- strove to promote international exchange. Of course, this exchange was supposed to be unidirectional -- the projection of the values of freedom and progress and the market economy onto the rest of the world. But, to the consternation of the proselytizing West, the outside world is now being projected onto it. Just as colonized peoples turned colonizers' ideas -- liberté, égalité -- against them, the globalized peoples have begun to leverage the deregulated global economy to their advantage. As a result, we have seen the rise of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and dozens of other "emerging" countries that signal the end of Western control over global affairs. 

Faced with this disorienting new reality, part of the Western elite has taken refuge in denial, insisting on ever more openness and globalization -- and falling further and further out of touch with public opinion. Meanwhile, the accumulation of these upheavals is producing a sense of vertigo and even panic among Western populations. All the world's flows -- trade, finance, migration, culture -- seem totally unchecked and uncontrollable, at least by the West and the international organizations that have, until now, served their interests. 

Link.

U.S. military to boost Philippines presence; China tells army to be prepared

Reuters.

U.S. and Philippine officials are expected to agree on an increase in the number of U.S. military ships, aircraft and troops rotating through the Philippines, Filipino officials said, as tensions simmer with China over its maritime claims.

Though he made no direct reference to the territorial disputes, new Chinese Communist Party chief Xi Jinping urged his military to prepare for a struggle. He made the comments during his visit to a South China Sea fleet ship in southern Guangdong province, but did not name any potential aggressor.

Senior U.S. and Philippine officials met on Wednesday in Manila to discuss strengthening security and economic ties at a time of growing tension over China's aggressive sovereignty claims over vast stretches of the disputed South China Sea.

Philippine defense and diplomatic officials said they expected to see more U.S. ships, aircraft and troops for training exercises and disaster and relief operations.

Link.

Paris Pushing for Risky Intervention in Mali

Spiegel Online.

Northern Mali is at risk of becoming a breeding ground for terrorists. But with a poorly trained Malian military and political chaos in the capital, few can agree on what should be done to bring peace and the rule of law to the region. France is in favor of quick action, but most of its allies are skeptical.

As Modibo Diarra began to read his statement on state television, his nervousness was clearly visible. "I, Cheick Modibo Diarra, am resigning along with my entire government," he said in the early hours of  Tuesday. "I apologize before the entire population of Mali." 

It's anything but a voluntary departure for the now ex-prime minister. The military junta had arrested him on Monday evening, accusing him of "no longer working in the interest of the country."

Modibo Diarra's downfall could intensify the political crisis in Bamako. Since the elected government was deposed by the military in March, the coup leaders have been sharing power with him and the president. Who exactly speaks for the country is a tug-of-war among the various parties.

More than anything else, it's this political chaos that makes an international military mission in Mali extremely dangerous. There is no clear contact person for international allies. Despite this, the military mission in Mali has already been agreed upon. It is meant to be the next step in the war on terror. But the operational details are still being negotiated -- who, when, what and with how many soldiers. 

Link.

Las minorías étnicas en EE.UU. serán mayoría en 2060

BBC

Estados Unidos se convertirá en una nación de minorías en las próximas décadas cuando los blancos dejen de ser la mayor parte de la población, según informó la Oficina del Censo este miércoles.

De acuerdo a las estimaciones de esa agencia federal, en 2060 las minorías étnicas del país -que ahora son el 37% de la población- serán el 57%.

De acuerdo a esos datos, la población hispana del país aumentará de los 53,3 millones actuales a 128,8 millones en 2060. Eso significa que para entonces, casi uno de la cada tres residentes en EE.UU. será hispano.

Por su parte, según la agencia federal, los blancos no hispanos aumentarán en 2024 a 199,6 millones para después decrecer lentamente, mientras que la población asiática aumentará a 34,4 millones.

Link.

La criminalización de la protesta en México

Isabel Erreguerena
Asuntos del Sur

El pasado 1º de diciembre se detuvieron en la ciudad de México a 69 jóvenes que protestaban sobre la toma de posesión del nuevo Presidente Peña Nieto. Cabe mencionar que durante las manifestaciones también hubo disturbios que causaron daños en comercios. Más allá del debate político alrededor de estas detenciones quiero centrar mi análisis en la disposición legal en las que se basaron las detenciones y si estas se ajustan al derecho internacional.

Disposición legal

Los 69 detenidos están acusados de “actos que perturban la paz” de acuerdo al artículo 362 del Código Penal del Distrito Federal. Este artículo establece: “Se le impondrán de cinco a treinta años de prisión y suspensión de derechos políticos hasta por diez años, al que mediante la utilización de sustancias tóxicas, por incendio, inundación o violencia extrema, realice actos en contra de las personas, las cosas o servicios públicos, que perturben la paz pública o menoscaben la autoridad del Gobierno del Distrito Federal, o presionen a la autoridad para que tome una determinación”. Sin embargo, está disposición no se debe ver aislada ya que los actos se dieron cuando se estaba ejerciendo el derecho a protestar. Por lo que se entiende que el establecimiento de este delito está limitando el derecho a protestar.

Link

All of the world’s power plants, in one handy map

The Washington Post

Around the world, there are about 62,500 power plants operating today. That includes everything from coal-fired plants to hydroelectric dams to wind farms.

But where are all these plants? And who uses what? This nifty map from a recent GE report offers a nice visualization:

Link

Equador avaliará eventual pedido de asilo de governo Assad, diz Rafael Correa

Folha de S.Paulo.

O governo do Equador, que concedeu asilo político ao fundador do WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, não descarta fazer o mesmo com integrantes do governo do ditador sírio Bashar Assad, se isso for solicitado. 

Foi o que disse o presidente equatoriano, Rafael Correa, em entrevista à Folha na sexta-feira em Brasília, antes de participar da cúpula semestral do Mercosul. 

Correa confirmou a visita a Quito do vice-chanceler sírio, Faisal al Miqdad, há duas semanas, mas negou a informação do jornal israelense "Haaretz", segundo o qual o diplomata visitou Equador, Venezuela e Cuba para conversar sobre um possível asilo para Assad e familiares. 

"Qualquer pessoa que peça asilo no Equador obviamente vamos considerar como ser humano, ao qual devemos respeitar seus direitos fundamentais. Mas não houve essas conversas", disse. 

Segundo Correa, o diplomata sírio foi ao Equador "agradecer" a "posição objetiva" de seu governo sobre a guerra civil na Síria. 

"O Equador jamais vai estar a favor da violência, mas olhemos para a história! Podemos acreditar em todas as notícias sobre massacres, de ditador? Lembremos o que se falava do Iraque." 

Em confronto aberto com jornais e TVs privados do Equador, Correa deleitou-se ao ser questionado sobre o Relatório Leveson, que no mês passado fez duras críticas à imprensa britânica e recomendou a criação de uma lei de imprensa no Reino Unido: "Rasgo minhas vestes! Atentado à liberdade de expressão!" 

Correa, que é favorito para ganhar mais quatro anos de mandato nas presidenciais de 17 de fevereiro, defendeu o direito do governo de não anunciar em jornais "mercantilistas". 

A seguir, a entrevista do presidente equatoriano, na qual o esquerdista falou do impacto que teria e entrada de seu país no Mercosul e da legalização das drogas. 

Link.

CAN dice que ingreso de Bolivia al Mercosur cambiaría las reglas

La Razón.

Mediante un comunicado enviado desde su sede en Lima, el secretario general de la CAN, Adalid Contreras, indicó que la firma del protocolo de adhesión de Bolivia como miembro pleno del Mercosur “amerita un análisis y pronunciamiento en el marco de las convergencias y complementariedades” que los presidentes andinos instruyeron buscar en su última cumbre con Unasur y Mercosur.

Contreras señaló que con la  adhesión del país al Mercosur se plantea la necesidad de examinar la figura de “doble pertenencia” porque al incorporarse Bolivia a un sistema ya constituido tendrá que adecuar algunas de sus normas, así como el Mercosur deberá flexibilizar su normativa.

“Especialmente para garantizar el trato especial diferenciado y de nación más favorecida que tienen en la CAN, como mecanismo para afrontar las asimetrías”.

Bolivia dio el primer paso para convertirse en el sexto miembro pleno del Mercosur al firmar el viernes el protocolo de adhesión al bloque que integran Argentina, Brasil, Uruguay, Venezuela y Paraguay, éste último suspendido.

Este proceso durará unos cuatro años. Según el protocolo, Bolivia ya pasa a ser miembro con voz en las cumbres del Mercosur, pero sin voto, privilegio que tendrá cuando sea miembro pleno.

La CAN en su actual diseño no tiene previsto la adhesión de sus países a otras uniones aduaneras, pero hay la apertura, con la Decisión 598, para convenios con terceros en el ámbito del comercio. “Con esto quiero decir que no hay nada que impida la adhesión, pero se debe crear un mecanismo o adecuar la norma para la doble pertenencia”, expresó Contreras.

Link.

China air force in large-scale drill amid tensions

Salon.

BEIJING (AP) — China says its air force has staged one of its largest-ever drills amid heightened tensions with Japan and its southern neighbors over territorial claims.

State media said Friday that the air combat exercises involving more than 100 pilots were held over 11 days last month in the vast northwestern region of Xinjiang. Aircraft taking part included China’s most modern jet fighters, the J-10 and J-11, according to the website of the Communist Party newspaper People’s Daily.

While the exercises were being held, China’s navy for the first time launched and recovered aircraft from the country’s first aircraft carrier. The exercises also came amid stepped-up sea patrols around East China Sea islands claimed by China but controlled by Japan, as well as renewed feuding between China and other claimants in the South China Sea.

Link.

Inestabilidad financiera en América Latina desde la perspectiva Kaleckiana y Minskyana

Tsuyoshi Yasuhara
IADE

La crisis financiera actual y los desequilibrios globales caracterizados por el auge del déficit de cuenta corriente de Estados Unidos han provenido del mismo origen, conocido como el surgimiento del modelo de crecimiento dirigido por las actividades financieras. Este trabajo tiene dos objetos. El primero es analizar cómo afecta el flujo de inversión extranjera y las fusiones y adquisiciones transfronterizas a la economía estadounidense y América Latina. El segundo es establecer el marco teórico de la inestabilidad financiera macroeconómica y aplicarla al examen de la economía latinoamericana en la década anterior. Elaboramos la interpretación macroeconómica de la teoría de inestabilidad financiera, combinando el marco teórico Kaleckiano y Minskyano.

 

Link

Joseph Nye: Inmigration and american power

Project-Syndicate

CAMBRIDGE – The United States is a nation of immigrants. Except for a small number of Native Americans, everyone is originally from somewhere else, and even recent immigrants can rise to top economic and political roles. President Franklin Roosevelt once famously addressed the Daughters of the American Revolution – a group that prided itself on the early arrival of its ancestors – as “fellow immigrants.”

Illustration by Dean Rohrer

In recent years, however, US politics has had a strong anti-immigration slant, and the issue played an important role in the Republican Party’s presidential nomination battle in 2012. But Barack Obama’s re-election demonstrated the electoral power of Latino voters, who rejected Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney by a 3-1 majority, as did Asian-Americans.

As a result, several prominent Republican politicians are now urging their party to reconsider its anti-immigration policies, and plans for immigration reform will be on the agenda at the beginning of Obama’s second term. Successful reform will be an important step in preventing the decline of American power.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/obama-needs-immigration-reform-to-maintain-america-s-strength-by-joseph-s--nye#qxwm8iwsCE1MZD1K.99

Obama’s Energy Dilemma: Back Energy-Fueled Growth or Please Green Lobby?

The Daily Beast

Talk all you want about the fiscal cliff, but more important still will be how the Obama administration deals with a potential growth-inducing energy boom. With America about to join the ranks of major natural-gas exporters and with the nation’s rising oil production reducing imports, the energy boom seems poised to both boost our global competitiveness and drive economic growth well above today’s paltry levels.

President Obama delivers remarks on wind power at the Heil Family Farm in Haverhill, Iowa, in August. (Jim Watson / AFP / Getty Images)

 Link

Andrew Gamble: The fiscal cliff

Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute

How seriously should we take the fiscal cliff? Ben Bernanke first used the phrase in January 2012. The deadlock between the White House and Congress over how to deal with the mounting fiscal deficits of the previous decade postponed any decision until after the November presidential elections.

Andrew Gamble

Elections have now passed but haven’t resolved anything, merely confirming the division of power between Republicans and Democrats in Washington. If nothing can be agreed by December 31^st major tax cuts will automatically lapse, and there will be deep spending cuts in all federal programmes, including welfare and defence. This could provide a sizeable deflationary shock at a time when the weak recovery is just getting established.

The idea that US politicians could inflict such harm on the economy because of a failure to compromise seems so bizarre that many observers assume it will not happen. There will be a last minute deal, or another postponement of the need to make a decision.

Link

Dilma e Hollande discutem em Paris crise econômica internacional e venda de caças

Renata Giraldi
Agencia Brasil

Brasília – A presidenta Dilma Rousseff reúne-se hoje (11) com o presidente da França, François Hollande, em Paris. Será o segundo encontro em seis meses, pois em junho ambos estiveram juntos durante a Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Desenvolvimento Sustentável, a Rio+20, no Rio de Janeiro. Em pauta, a crise econômica internacional e projetos nas áreas de defesa, educação, ciência, tecnologia e inovação.

Às 11h (8h de Brasília) Dilma participa da cerimônia oficial de chegada, em Les Invalides. Depois, tem reunião com o presidente da Assembleia Nacional. Às 15h, a presidenta participa do Fórum pelo Progresso Social - O Crescimento como Saída para a Crise, organizado pelo Instituto Lula e pela Fundação Jean Jaurès.

Link

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.

National Intelligence Council - United States of America.

The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance.

Since the first report was released in 1997, the audience for each Global Trends report has expanded, generating more interest and reaching a broader audience that the one that preceded it. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election.

Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.

In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries—from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups—to solicit reviews of the report.

Link.

Link al reporte.

La Adicción Punitiva: La desproporción de leyes de drogas en América Latina

Dejusticia.

Este documento pone en evidencia la des-proporcionalidad de los delitos relacionados con drogas en siete países de América Latina. A pesar de tratarse de conductas punibles que no generan un daño directo y concreto en terceras personas, el estudio evolutivo de las leyes penales de drogas desde 1950 hasta la actualidad, demuestra que existe una tendencia regional hacia la maximización del uso del derecho penal que se refleja en: 

1) el incremento desmedido de las conductas de drogas penalizadas, 

2) el crecimiento exponencial de las penas con las que se les castiga y 

3) la incomprensible tendencia a castigar con mayor severidad los delitos de drogas que delitos de una gravedad mucho más evidente como el homicidio, el acceso carnal violento y el hurto con violencia sobre las personas. 

Se concluye entonces la existencia de una “adicción punitiva” por parte de los Estados latinoamericanos, pues a pesar de encontrar cada vez menores beneficios, se opta por incrementar de más en más la dosis de punitivismo característica de la guerra contra las drogas.

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Link al reporte.

Barack Obama takes 'fiscal cliff' plan to Michigan

BBC

US President Barack Obama is to address Michigan car workers to build support for his plan to raise taxes on the rich and avert a looming "fiscal cliff".

The visit follows face-to-face meetings with Republican House Speaker John Boehner at the White House on Sunday.

After their first private talks since Mr Obama won re-election, both sides said communication lines "remain open".

Deep spending cuts and tax rises due to take effect on 1 January threaten to derail US economic recovery.

Extended benefits for the long-term unemployed and a temporary cut to payroll taxes are also scheduled to expire at the same time.

International observers, such as Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, have warned that there would be ripple effects for the rest of the world if US lawmakers are not able to agree to a deal.

What is the fiscal cliff?

Under a deal reached last year between President Obama and the Republican-controlled Congress, existing stimulus measures - mostly tax cuts - will expire on 1 January 2013.

Cuts to defence, education and other government spending will then automatically come into force - the "fiscal cliff" - unless Congress acts.

The economy does not have the momentum to absorb the shock from going over the fiscal cliff without going into recession.

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Presidente Hugo Chávez debe someterse a una nueva intervención quirúrgica

teleSUR

El presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, informó este sábado que, tras una revisión médica exhaustiva, deberá someterse a una nueva intervención quirúrgica “y eso debe ocurrir en los próximos días”.

Desde el Palacio de Miraflores en Caracas, (capital) el mandatario venezolano explicó que en su reciente visita a Cuba, para recibir terapia alternativa, se le hicieron una serie de exámenes médicos que determinaron la necesidad de operarse nuevamente.

“Debido a algunos síntomas decidimos adelantar exámenes, para realizar una nueva revisión exhaustiva y en esa revisión surge la presencia de algunas células malignas. Lo que nos ha obligado a revisar el diagnóstico, la evolución del tratamiento y consultar expertos y se ha decidido, que es absolutamente necesario someterme a una nueva intervención quirúrgica y eso debe ocurrir en los próximos días”, informó.

“Con el favor de Dios como en las ocasiones anteriores saldremos victoriosos y saldremos adelante”, confió el jefe de Estado venezolano.

Chávez fue enfático al asegurar que en este caso, como en toda intervención médica, existen riesgos; sin embargo, apeló a la unidad del pueblo venezolano para garantizar a marcha de la Revolución Bolivariana.

Asimismo, manifestó que “si algo ocurriera, que a mi me inhabilite para continuar al frente de la presidencia de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro no sólo en esa situación debe concluir como manda la constitución el período, sino que mi opinión firme y plena, irrevocable, absoluta, total es que en ese escenario, que obligaría a convocar a elecciones presidenciales, ustedes elijan a Nicolás Maduro como presidente de la República Bolivariana”.

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Robert D. Kaplan on the Middle East

Stratfor

Lights Out For China’s Solar Power Industry?

James Parker
The Diplomat

China’s photo-voltaic (PV) industry, better known as the “solar industry”, is in the middle of a serious crisis.  The issue is particularly fascinating since it essentially serves as a microcosm for many of the troubles afflicting China’s economy as a whole, including government encouraged over-investment, an astounding run up of debt, government support of value-destroying firms, resulting trade frictions, and the tension between central and local government goals.  

Nearly all the “big names” of the industry, including companies such as LDK Solar, Yingli Solar (which sports fans will recognize from its sponsorship at recent international soccer events) and Suntech Power Holdings are all facing the possibility of bankruptcy,  consolidation, or both following a remarkable few years in China’s solar industry.

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Dilma Rousseff responde a The Economist

Televisao Nacional Brasileira
TVNBR

India's Ocean

Foreign Policy.

Is the Indian Navy about to start mixing it up with China on the high seas? For years, as the Chinese have modernized their naval fleet, Indian strategists have worried about what that might mean for India's political and economic interests. A recent book by C. Raja Mohan, one of India's most influential strategic thinkers, explores the prospect of Sino-Indian competition spilling from the Himalayas to the Indian and Pacific Oceans, risking a struggle for maritime influence in the region among the United States, China, and India. 

So it was all the more interesting, when, at a press conference Monday, India's top admiral appeared to suggest that his navy would defend Indo-Vietnamese oil exploration efforts in the South China Sea against Chinese aggression. An Indian state-owned oil company, ONGC Videsh, has been involved in deepwater explorations with Vietnam in the South China Sea since 2006, despite Chinese claims of sovereignty over that area. 

But the reality of Admiral D.K. Joshi's statement was far less sensational. Rather than signalling a deployment, he merely reinforced the longstanding Indian position that China's naval modernization concerned India, and that like other maritime powers, India was preparing for worst-case scenarios. It wasn't even a signal to clear the decks, let alone a shot across the bow. 

Nonetheless, India is far more likely to become a regular naval presence in the Pacific than many previously imagined, due to its rapidly expanding economy, improving military technologies, and growing energy interests. The Indian Navy has historically been the smallest and most poorly-resourced of India's three military services, in keeping with the country's security preoccupations at home and its unresolved land border disputes with Pakistan and China. It has just 60,000 active personnel and a $7 billion annual budget, roughly a quarter of the strength and resources of China's People's Liberation Army Navy. Its long-range capabilities come from a single aircraft carrier, a second-hand amphibious transport dock, 14 German- or Russian-designed diesel-powered submarines, and about 20 destroyers and frigates. 

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Clinton vows to thwart new Soviet Union

Financial Times.

The US is trying to prevent Russia from recreating a new version of the Soviet Union under the ruse of economic integration, Hillary Clinton warned on Thursday.

“There is a move to re-Sovietise the region,” the US secretary of state told a news conference in Dublin hours before going into a meeting with her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

“It’s not going to be called that. It’s going to be called a customs union, it will be called Eurasian Union and all of that,” she said, referring to various iterations of a Moscow-backed plan to deepen economic ties with its neighbours.

“But let's make no mistake about it. We know what the goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it.”

Mrs Clinton said efforts at regional hegemony had been accompanied by new campaigns of repression from pro-Moscow regimes throughout the former Soviet Union. Her tone signalled that the US was rethinking its “reset” in relations with Russia, declared in 2009, during which criticism of its human rights record has been muted and Moscow appeared to have a freer hand in the former Soviet region.

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Zaki Laidi: Bye-Bye, Middle East?

Project Syndicate.

 PARIS – For some time now, a certain strategic vision has been gaining traction: the United States is becoming energy-independent, paving the way for its political retreat from the Middle East and justifying its strategic “pivot” toward Asia. This view seems intuitively correct, but is it?

 Energy-hungry America has long depended on the global market to meet domestic demand. In 2005, the US imported 60% of the energy that it consumed. Since then, however, the share of imports has decreased, and it should continue to do so. The US is expected to become energy self-sufficient in 2020, and to become an oil exporter by 2030.

This scenario would grant the US three enormous advantages. It would enhance US economic competitiveness, especially relative to Europe, given the lower costs involved in the extraction of shale gas. It would also reduce America’s exposure to growing unrest in the Arab world. Finally, it would increase the relative vulnerability of America’s main strategic rival, China, which is becoming increasingly dependent on Middle East energy supplies.

These facts obviously need to be taken seriously, but their implications for US foreign policy in the Middle East should not be too hastily drawn. Above all, though energy dependence is a key element of US policy in the region, it is far from being the only factor. Israel’s security and the desire to contain Iran are equally important.

Moreover, the Middle East’s role in the global geopolitics of energy will grow in the coming decades, making it difficult to see how a superpower like the US could simply walk away from the region. Within the next 15 years, OPEC countries will account for 50% of global oil production, compared to only 42% today. Furthermore, the country on which this increase will most likely hinge is Iraq.

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Joseph Stiglitz: Estados Unidos espera en vano

Project Syndicate

NUEVA YORK – Después de una dura campaña electoral cuyo costo superó holgadamente los 2 mil millones de dólares, para muchos observadores los cambios en la política estadounidense no fueron tantos: Barack Obama aún es presidente, los republicanos todavía controlan la Cámara de Representantes y los demócratas mantienen su mayoría en el Senado. Estados Unidos enfrenta un «precipicio fiscal» –aumentos en los impuestos y recortes en el gasto automáticos a partir de principios de 2013, que muy probablemente llevarán a la economía a una recesión a menos que se logre un acuerdo bipartidario sobre una alternativa fiscal– ¿podría haber algo peor que una parálisis política ininterrumpida?

Illustration by Matt Wuerker

De hecho, la elección tuvo varios efectos saludables –más allá de mostrar que el gasto corporativo desenfrenado no puede comprar una elección y que los cambios demográficos en EE. UU. pueden condenar al extremismo republicano. La campaña explícita de los republicanos en algunos estados para privar del derecho al voto a ciertas personas –como en Pensilvania, donde intentaron dificultar que los afroamericanos y latinos se registrasen para votar– resultó contraproducente: quienes vieron sus derechos amenazados encontraron motivos para entrar en acción y ejercerlos. En Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, una profesora de derecho de Harvard e incansable defensora de reformas para proteger al ciudadano común de las prácticas abusivas de los bancos, ganó una banca en el Senado.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-reform-agenda-for-the-second-obama-administration-by-joseph-e--stiglitz/spanish#JRz7D0eRpGu68jOQ.99

American Shale Gas Goes Global

The American Interest

A new study commissioned by the Obama Administration predicts “net economic benefits” from exporting liquified natural gas:

In all of these cases, benefits that come from export expansion more than outweigh the losses from reduced capital and wage income to U.S. consumers, and hence LNG exports have net economic benefits in spite of higher domestic natural gas prices. This is exactly the outcome that economic theory describes when barriers to trade are removed.

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The World's Fast-Changing Oil Map: the South China Sea

David Lee Smith
Motley Fool

Our current world tour has taken us to such locations as South America and Africa, oil-producing venues where -- along, of course, with the Persian Gulf region of the Middle East -- capability exists for at least minor political and geopolitical skirmishes.

We'll now head for the South China Sea, which just this week is being hit by escalating tensions among those countries that claim ownership of all or part of it. From an energy perspective, however, the difference between the Asian body of water and our previous stops involves sizable discoveries in the latter, while the former is still generally on the proverbial come.

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Assad may claim asylum in Latin America, according to reports

Albawaba News.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly been looking into the possibility of claiming political asylum in Latin America.

In an official visit to Venezuela last week, Syria's deputy foreign minister, Faisal al-Miqdad, brought a classified letter from Assad to President Hugo Chavez.

A government spokesperson refused to reveal details of the letter but told Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, that Assad's message touched on "the personal relationship between the two presidents."

In the past, Chavez has been open about his support for Assad, sending fuel into Syria to be used in regime tanks and armored personnel carriers. The close relationship between the two countries has led commentators to suggest that Assad's letter explores the possibility of claiming political asylum for himself, his family and his associates.

Suspicions have been fueled by further visits by Miqdad to Cuba and Ecuador over the past week, in which he is also said to have carried classified letters.

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NATO Foreign Ministers’ statement on Patriot deployment to Turkey

NATO

The situation along NATO’s south-eastern border and the repeated violations of Turkey’s territory raise grave concern. As the North Atlantic Council made clear on June 26 and October 3, we stand with Turkey in the spirit of strong solidarity. We, the NATO foreign ministers, declare our determination to deter threats to and defend Turkey.

 In response to Turkey’s request, NATO has decided to augment Turkey’s air defence capabilities in order to defend the population and territory of Turkey and contribute to the de-escalation of the crisis along the Alliance’s border.  We have agreed to do so within the framework of the NATO integrated air defence system in order to preserve, protect and enhance the ability to defend the population and territory of Turkey in accordance with the NATO standing defence plan. 

We welcome the intention of Germany, the Netherlands and the United States to provide Patriot missile batteries, subject to their respective national procedures.  These systems will be under the operational command of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR).  Any deployment will be defensive only.  It will in no way support a no-fly zone or any offensive operation. 

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China condemns Senkaku amendment to U.S.-Japan security treaty

The Japan Times.

BEIJING — China on Monday branded the U.S.-Japan security treaty "a product of the Cold War" after Washington reaffirmed its commitment to Japan in the Senkaku dispute.

The amendment, attached to the National Defense Authorization Bill, noted that while the United States "takes no position" on the ultimate sovereignty of the disputed territory, it "acknowledges the administration of Japan over the Senkaku Islands."

The "unilateral actions of a third party" will not affect its position, it added.

The legislation passed last week reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to Japan under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security and warned that an armed attack against either party "in the territories under the administration of Japan" would be met in accordance with its provisions.

The islands in the East China Sea are called Diaoyu in China and Tiaoyutai in Taiwan.

"The Chinese side expresses serious concern and firm opposition to the U.S. Senates's amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act," foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters.

"The Diaoyu islands and affiliated islands have been China's inherent territory since ancient times. China has indisputable sovereignty over them."

Hong said the legislation violated Washington's repeated pledge to not take sides in the dispute.

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¿Crisis de innovación o crisis finaciera?

Kenneth Rogoff/Project Syndicate.

CAMBRIDGE – Mientras los años de lento crecimiento se suceden, aumenta el debate sobre lo que cabe esperar para las próximas décadas. ¿Fue la crisis financiera un revés duro pero transitorio al crecimiento de los países avanzados, o expuso malestares de más largo plazo?

Recientemente unos pocos escritores, incluidos el emprendedor de Internet Peter Thiel y el activista político y ex campeón mundial de ajedrez Garry Kasparov, han adoptado una interpretación bastante radical del desaceleramiento. En un libro de próxima publicación sostienen que el colapso del crecimiento de los países avanzados no se debe meramente a la crisis financiera, la raíz del problema, proponen, es que las debilidades de estos países reflejan un estancamiento secular en la tecnología y la innovación. Por lo tanto, es poco probable que se verifique un aumento sostenido en el crecimiento de la productividad sin cambios radicales en las políticas de innovación.

El economista Robert Gordon lleva esta idea aún más lejos. Sostiene que el período de rápido progreso tecnológico posterior a la Revolución Industrial puede resultar una excepción de 250 años a la regla del estancamiento en la historia humana. De hecho, sugiere que las innovaciones tecnológicas actuales palidecen cuando se las compara con avances anteriores como la electricidad, el agua corriente, el motor de combustión interna y otros grandes inventos que ya tienen más de un siglo.

Recientemente debatí sobre la tesis del estancamiento tecnológico con Thiel y Kasparov en la Universidad de Oxford, junto con el pionero en encriptación Mark Shuttleworth. Kasparov insistió en preguntar qué agregan verdaderamente los productos como el iPhone 5 a nuestras capacidades y sostuvo que la mayor parte de la ciencia que subyace a la informática moderna fue definida en la década de 1970. Thiel mantuvo que los esfuerzos para combatir la recesión a través de políticas monetarias laxas y estímulos fiscales hiperagresivos se ocupan del problema equivocado y son, por lo tanto, potencialmente muy perjudiciales. 

Estas ideas son muy interesantes, pero evidencia aún parece indicar abrumadoramente que la disminución de la actividad en la economía mundial refleja principalmente los resultados de una crisis financiera sistémica profunda, no de una crisis de innovación secular de largo plazo.

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Pinker y Goldstein: War Really Is Going Out of Style

The New York Times.

THE departure of the last American troops from Iraq brings relief to a nation that has endured its most painful war since Vietnam. But the event is momentous for another reason. The invasion of Iraq was the most recent example of an all-out war between two national armies. And it could very well be the last one. The idea that war is obsolescent may seem preposterously utopian. Aren’t we facing an endless war on terror, a clash of civilizations, the menace of nuclear rogue states? Isn’t war in our genes, something that will always be with us? 

The theory that war is becoming passé gained traction in the late 1980s, when scholars noticed some curious nonevents. World War III, a nuclear Armageddon, was once considered inevitable, but didn’t happen. Nor had any wars between great powers occurred since the Korean War. European nations, which for centuries had fought each other at the drop of a hat, had not done so for four decades. 

How has the world fared since then? Armed conflict hasn’t vanished, and today anyone with a mobile phone can broadcast the bloodshed. But our impressions of the prevalence of war, stoked by these images, can be misleading. Only objective numbers can identify the trends. 

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Eduardo Gudynas: La nueva fórmula: E = C2 x E2

La Primera
Perú

Una nueva aritmética política parece estar difundiéndose en América del Sur: asegurar las adhesiones “electorales” (E) promoviendo el “consumismo” (C), lo que obliga a incrementar el “extractivismo” (E). Hay una relación estrecha entre todos estos factores, donde un nuevo consumismo popular se financia con mayores exportaciones de materias primas y el fortalecimiento de las monedas nacionales.

No se malinterprete lo que estoy indicando. No estoy en contra del consumo popular, y por cierto que es muy bienvenido que quienes salen de la condición de pobreza puedan acceder a elementos indispensables para sus hogares o tengan sus propios medios de transporte, allí donde sea necesario.

En cambio, mi alerta es sobre otro énfasis que parece difundirse en varios países, e incluso allí donde hay gobiernos progresistas. Me refiero a la promoción de un consumismo indiscriminado como signo de bienestar y calidad de vida. Es suponer que comprando utensilios de plástico, una gigantesca pantalla plana o un sofisticado celular, se alcanzará rápidamente la felicidad. Es la misma postura que exhibe como grandes avances la inauguración de nuevos centros comerciales o los record en la venta de equipos de aire acondicionado, mientras no se logra resolver el acceso a la vivienda popular o una buena salud pública. Como esas metas no se alcanzan, se contentan con las satisfacciones instantáneas y de corto aliento que brinda el consumo de plásticos baratos o textiles y electrodomésticos asiáticos.

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Paul Krugman: El precipicio fiscal es una “bomba” para la economía de EE.UU.

RT

Link

Corbis

La amenaza para la economía de EE.UU. no es la incapacidad para reducir el déficit presupuestario, sino el hecho de que su disminución pueda ser excesiva, según opina el premio Nobel Paul Krugman en su columna en 'The New York Times'.

"De eso se trata el 'precipicio fiscal', que se describe mejor como una bomba de austeridad: las subidas de impuestos y recortes de gastos programados para arrancar a finales de este año no son precisamente lo que queremos que ocurra en la economía todavía deprimida”, denuncia el economista.

El experto acusa a un grupo de personas de haber desviado la atención de forma intencionada de los problemas reales de la economía de EE.UU., lo que finalmente resultó en el crack.

Texto completo en: http://actualidad.rt.com/economia/view/80125-premio-nobel-economia-krugman-precipicio-fiscal-bomba-economia-eeuu

Corbis

La amenaza para la economía de EE.UU. no es la incapacidad para reducir el déficit presupuestario, sino el hecho de que su disminución pueda ser excesiva, según opina el premio Nobel Paul Krugman en su columna en 'The New York Times'.

"De eso se trata el 'precipicio fiscal', que se describe mejor como una bomba de austeridad: las subidas de impuestos y recortes de gastos programados para arrancar a finales de este año no son precisamente lo que queremos que ocurra en la economía todavía deprimida”, denuncia el economista.

El experto acusa a un grupo de personas de haber desviado la atención de forma intencionada de los problemas reales de la economía de EE.UU., lo que finalmente resultó en el crack.

Texto completo en: http://actualidad.rt.com/economia/view/80125-premio-nobel-economia-krugman-precipicio-fiscal-bomba-economia-eeuu

Human Security Report 2012

Human Security Report Project (HSRP)/Simon Fraser University (SFU)

The Human Security Report 2012 challenges a number of widely held assumptions about the nature of sexual violence during war and the effect of conflict on education systems. Both analyses are part of the Human Security Report Project’s ongoing investigation of the human costs of war. 

Part I: Sexual Violence, Education, and War first reviews the fragmentary data on sexual violence against adults and children in wartime. It finds, among other things, that the mainstream narrative exaggerates the prevalence of combatant-perpetrated sexual violence, while largely ignoring the far more pervasive domestic sexual violence perpetrated in wartime by family members and acquaintances. This bias has unfortunate implications for policy. 

Turning to the impact of war on education, the Report shows that—surprisingly—education outcomes actually improve on average during wartime. It confirms that conflict-affected countries generally have substantially lower educational outcomes than nonconflict countries, but it challenges the widely held notion that this is because of war. It points out that educational outcomes were also low—or lower— during the prior periods of peace. They could not, therefore, have been caused by warfare. The Report offers the first explanation for the apparent paradox of education outcomes that improve in wartime. 

Part II of the Report reviews global and regional trends in the incidence and severity of organized violence. It highlights new research on the deadliness of external military intervention in civil wars, challenges the notion that conflicts are becoming more persistent, and shows that even “failed” peace agreements save lives. 

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Link al reporte.

Obama warns Syria amid rising concern over chemical weapons

The Washington Post.

President Obama warned Syria on Monday that deploying chemical weapons is “totally unacceptable,” after what U.S. officials said were new intelligence reports that the Damascus government is preparing such munitions for possible use.

Obama told the government of President Bashar al-Assad that “there will be consequences, and you will be held accountable” if it used any part of its stockpile of chemical weapons, including sarin gas, the deadly nerve agent. 

A U.S. intelligence official said “we have pretty good visibility” into Syria’s depots, and a second U.S. official said intelligence gathered in recent days has raised alarms. The second official said it was unclear whether the Assad government planned to move beyond the preparation stage to deploying the weapons. 

After months of dogged, siegelike fighting, rebel forces have begun to make significant advances in Syria, raising questions about Assad’s durability and desperation. 

The Obama administration has resisted any direct intervention in the conflict, but hard evidence that Syria had weaponized its chemical stocks could trigger the use of U.S. troops to secure the materials. A senior American official, who like other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss contingency plans and intelligence, said some U.S. forces have begun to run drills so they are ready to seize chemical weapons in Syria if ordered. 

Link.